We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Petercraigscot
No wander he discibes himself as a enthusiastic ameture.
"As I said. It was how the well was left prior to producing from the Portland in February. The commingled production was the last test carried out. Can you produce evidence of which layer in the Kimmeridge they are producing from now? No. They have not mentioned KL3 or KL4 or commingled (spelt correctly) in any RNS."
Ibug is correct - they ran IIRC a complex test completion string that enabled them to open and close of any of the three levels as they wished. They may (or may not) have left the two Kimm. levels open at the same time or they may have closed one off. We do not know and they haven't told us. Anything said on here is a guess until they tell us or we see the test report when it's available in 2024.
As I said. It was how the well was left prior to producing from the Portland in February. The commingled production was the last test carried out.
Can you produce evidence of which layer in the Kimmeridge they are producing from now? No. They have not mentioned KL3 or KL4 or commingled (spelt correctly) in any RNS.
Disagree and try to deflect all you want.
apologies. My mistake. It should have been 2.2p. 1p for the SP today and 1.2p for your expected rise due to the selling of 250m shares to make the £3m (250m x 1.2p = £3m). You didn't say it but you inferred it in your post given the SP today and what you expected the SP to be when Tellurian cash in.
PSC,
In the return to Kimmeridge testing it was described as 'the deeper Kimmeridge oil pool' not an individual layer. So a continuation of the commingled test. If you meant Portland + Kimmeridge it's very unlikely as it would be producing from an overlapping connected oil and interfere with the HH-2z Portland ewt.
As for HH-2z ewt there really isn't enough information available to even make an educated guess. But it's noticeable that all these predictions don't include what rate, are they initial rates, half hour maximums, prudent rates, sustainable rates (but never for how long), average rates over a day, a week? These are all rates UKOG has used.
PSC
Interesting that you only expect the SP to rise to 1.2p before 31st December considering your 3.65p price prediction in the competition.
Production from HH-1 is already commingled as that was the state the well was in prior to production from the Portland in February.
Its only one trade, all trades are showing twice for some reason today.
Whilst writing my last post I see 2 trades of 6mm shares went through - same number same price - as a trade last night.
Keeps happening.
Anybody else think YA are boosting the daily trade volume by shuffling shares back and forth?
700 bopd from the Portland + 200 bopd from the Kimmeridge (despite assertions the 'taps' would be opened up this seems to be about what the Kimmeridge is actually capable of) should generate some free cash flow but outgoings with equipment to test 2 wells will be high.
But the loan is only repayable in cash as a company choice as long as the 5 day VWAP remains below the fixed price conversion price (about 1.35p) so if the SP rises above this then YA can continue to convert at the fixed price.
Looks like a catch 22 as there won't be any extra cash until the Portland flows and the expectation is that will trigger a rise in the SP, so the cash option would only be available in the case of a poor test - which wouldn't be generating the cash needed.
From memory I think GF said it takes circa 60 days from Oil delivery to refinery to payment..
True, however 700 BOPD would give us the cash flow to clear the remaining YA debt in cash very quickly would it not?
IMOH OFC
The point which seems to be missed by the majority of posters here is the Market Cap.
The value of the company is first decided by the market cap which is then divided by the number of shares in issue thus giving us [the share holders] the share price.
All the time there is a visible share overhang, such as the 4.3 million pounds waiting in the wings to be converted into shares, then the price of these shares will not rise until it is dealt with.
It would require an enourmously positive RNS to be issued, at this point, for the SP to rise above it's present level, probably in excess of 1200 BOPD from the latest well project would need to be reported.
Anything less than this would [IMO] just leave the SP static, with 600 to 700 BOPD resulting in a drop.
Time will tell.
All this just in opinion.