Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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You do remind me of the Black Knight in Monty Python. Looking at yr history you are 95%+ down on UKOG and still upbeat.
AimDogs
:-)
Not sure that I can be described as upbeat, the funding requirements of UKOG are undeniable, but do think the market is focusing exclusively on those funding requirements without taking into consideration the valuation of UKOG's asset portfolio.
Bit of a contrarian, so very suspicious of consensus thinking when almost everybody appears to express the same opinion (the financial crisis wasn't that long ago!).
So, in summary, think UKOG's share price should be higher.
Ocelot:-
You are a deluded agitator, seeking to illicit responses from the rest of the antagonists on here.
Deep down you know that this company is finished but still you plough on regardless.
NibblePibbley,
I'm going to be a bit pedantic: elicit NOT illicit.
I thought you would deny the allegations... says words for them
I doubt that Ocelot is a deluded agitator. Far FAR more likely to be a PR stooge.
Unless valuations are backed up by full details UKOG are prepared to publish then it's very likely that there is a flaw in the valuation.
UKOG claim the £19.3 million intangible valuation (money spent on HH) is supported by a valuation based on 4 further wells being drilled - what are the assumptions, all successful? what costs to drill? what flow rates? water injection works? - wouldn't it be nice if UKOG CPR'd HH to justify that, and the valuation they carry for HH-1 which has risen this year (from £0.8mm to £1.4mm) despite using a lower OP ($78 then flat $75 after 2031 vs last year's $81 then flat $81 after 2031), but possibly resulting from using a more favourable discount rate (about 25% lower). With over a year of testing and 4 years of production surely there's enough data for a CPR - they had a Kimmeridge report done in 2019 (only mentioned as a footnote to justify contingent resources in the Kimmeridge) based on the testing - after that any Kimmeridge work at HH appeared to be stopped.
To claim that any estimate by UKOG, with a record of exaggeration and failure of potentially transformational. or national significance projects that clearly weren't, is reliable is absurd. The fact the 'successful' well out of 2 (HH-1) was 'worth' £0.8mm last year and this £1.4mm, but 4 new wells are worth £19.3mm after the cost of drilling new wells has been accounted for suggests there's no risking, a favourable view of possible production - and probably the super low discount rate - at least a CPR would have some indication of the sensitivity of the valuation to different inputs and pi could make their own judgement of what's likely.
If UKOG want to be believed put the calculations to the test of a CPR, otherwise it's just ramper fodder.
Market cap: £1m
Book net assets at 30/09/23: £32.687m
Here's a complete list of previous write-downs to UKOG's "assets":
2018 BB-1 "unable to be used for production" £9.25m
2018 "Holmwood operator abandoned the site" £1.21m
2020 Horse Hill "impairment charge of £7.89 million"
2020 "HH-1 should be impaired by £9.35 million"
2021 "HH-1 should be impaired by £1.46 million"
2021 Isle of Wight write-off £946k
2022 "HH-1 should be impaired by £2.9 million"
Total: £33m.
Yet to be disclosed: Turkey
If drill testing is ever carried out on HH-3 or Loxley the same pattern will be repeated.
There is no logic in your last line.
Ocelot & Logic
Sorry you cannot use them in
the same sentence, or even room!
If one of UKOG's past expectations had come true even that wouldn't justify blindly believing that something they are claiming with no detailed backup - like every previous claim - was likely to come true this time.
Even the Loxley CPR which is based on minimal data has errors that significantly increase the risk of failure or at best a find that is not commercial - otherwise UKOG has avoided any examination of their projects or detailed forecasts of the financial benefit of the results of their activities - if successful.
Perhaps that's why a company with an income stream dependent on issuing ever cheaper shares just to help pay the salaries, let alone do anything, and appears to have no way of doing anything now without farming out half the family silver has such a low cap.
What happens when the 'family silver' turns out to be electroplated junk?
I note the discussion around HH and its valuation and apparent potential.
If HH is really worth anything significant and that new drilling could be rewarding; I have to ask; Why did Sanderson 'roll the dice' (his words ) in Türkiye and NOT invest in HH?
Millions blown on a gamble when he supposedly had a sure fire winner with HH.
Maybe he knows that HH is not so great Afterall.
I believe https://www.bahamasair.com/ were in discussions with SS at one stage as they were expecting millions of millionaires to be buying properties on the islands. Top of the list were:
ajbennett
Anton13579
argus1
baits
Bcarm
bigdaddyian
billy101203
bornagain
Caddyman
Capdevila11
caristom
charge1962
danpoe353
DavidWK
dazzle71
Desree
Doose
downbutnotout
elle_valexpert
freeasabird
Heid
HH1AN2
Insidious
InvestingGenius
leewayne
mannnan
MJFMSG
moneymunch
morefondle
Mullins58
northfork
ocelot
Ozzy52
Pboo
richar
rodanjt
ShareFlyer
Shls3834
Sonmoon
spud_u_like
SRBS
Sting69
Stockraiser
TheReverand
TollesburyStu
Trish63
TrollHunter2
Tymers
walrus
wizard125
Some have probably died by now but plenty of new ones to take their places.
The Turkey announcement was 23 July 2020.
It wasn't a co-incidence that they were still suggesting HH-2z could be salvaged as a producer in June and the first OGA (as it was then) monthly production figures with significant water cuts were soon to be published - 9% water cut in May, released early September and 24% water cut in June released early October.
From the 30 June 2020 Interim Report (ie when UKOG already knew HH-1 was producing 24% water) about HH-2z:-
'A number of options are being reviewed for the future use of HH-2z, including stimulation to return it into long-term production, sidetracking the well to a different subsurface location and possibly converting it into a future water re-injection well to implement pressure support and further reduce future operating costs (as foreseen in the Horse Hill FDP)'
as for HH-1 in June (when UKOG knew the water cut was averaging 24%) things were all hunky dory apparently, this also from the interim report:-
'Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval. As of 29 June 2020, 113,143 bbl in total has been produced from Horse Hill'
Except the average daily production was dropping fast - April (first month 'post period') 243bopd, May 177bopd plus 18bwpd, June 158bopd plus 49bwpd.
The only other 'news' about HH-1 was this:-
Post-period, the Company also plans a significant intervention in HH-1 specifically designed to further improve flow into the wellbore. Together with a full reperforation of the entire Portland section using a different type of perforating gun than prior operations, a new , simpler production tubing completion will be installed. The new completion will permit the downhole pump to be installed below the Portland interval to significantly improve pump efficiency.'
Which lead to speculation that the reperforation of the whole section would improve production massively, and the deeper pump might be in the Kimmeridge - both BS.
On 16 July UKOG announced the completion of buying the PW production kit - I posted (remember still not knowing about the water ingress at HH-1):-
'The main issue though is that by buying this kit UKOG are admitting that this is the production set up at HH for quite a long time.'
Only nearly s.four year
Thanks for that Ibug
Brought back so many really bad memories,
had almost managed to distinguish
the fires of their lies and deceit
Not forgetting stupidity
This looks like it’s going to be a very difficult week for the Rampers (ocelot)
Reminder:
Market cap: £1m
Book net assets at 30/09/23: £32.687m
Reminder: from the auditor’s report in the recent Report and Accounts:
“Costs such as exploration licences, leasehold land and property acquisition costs and costs directly associated with exploration activities are capitalised as exploration and evaluation intangible assets. There is a risk that the exploration and evaluation assets are incorrectly valued or need to be impaired”
The auditor considers this a Key Audit Matter. Virtually all UKOG’s assets come under the definition of “exploration and evaluation assets”.
Ocelot,
Reminder that UKOG's intangible assets for Loxley and Horse Hill are just a well away from being impaired - in fact anything left in Turkey should have been already written off but it looks like money spent on Basur has so far been retained as there was no impairment mentioned in the accounts for 2022 despite the failure of Basur-3, not drilling Basur-4 following the 2 phases of seismic to identify a location, and ruling out drilling in the Rean part of the structural feature.
With intangible assets recorded as £33.2 million net assets would be negative if intangibles weren't taken into account.