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China iron ore imports likely at peak, demand composition to shift: Russell
By Clyde Russell
May 16, 20245:49 AM GMT
LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 16 (Reuters) - China's demand for imported iron ore has most likely peaked, but the composition of future imports are likely to shift as the world's biggest steel producer seeks to decarbonise.
China, which buys about 75% of all seaborne iron ore, imported 1.18 billion metric tons of the key steel raw material in 2023, a record high, according to customs data.
But since 2019, iron ore imports have been locked in a fairly narrow range between 1.07 billion and the 2023 peak.
The consensus of views at last week's Iron Ore Forum in Singapore, which brought together miners, traders and steel producers, was that China's demand will remain relatively flat around current levels.
This view is based on two large caveats, namely that Beijing continues with its informal policy of capping annual steel production around 1 billion tons, and that China's domestic iron ore output remains steady on a contained iron basis, with any increase in mined volumes being offset by declining grades.
Assuming those two conditions are indeed maintained, it's hard to make a case that China's demand for imported iron ore will do anything other than stagnate, albeit at a very high level.
The question then becomes how will the market dynamics shift, as for the last two decades iron ore has been driven largely by the relentless growth of China, which saw imports surge six-fold between 2004 and 2024.
The first thing to note is that while China will remain the biggest buyer of seaborne iron ore, its dominance will slip somewhat as other steel producers emerge in Asia, especially in India and Southeast Asia.
India is the fifth-biggest iron ore exporter, but as its domestic industry expands it is likely to export less, and may even turn to being a net importer in the 2030s.
Countries such as Vietnam and Thailand are also expected to boost steel production over the coming decade, and will largely rely on imported iron ore.
However, the demand drivers for iron ore are weakening, making it more likely that supply will be the key price determinant over the coming decade.
DECARBONISATION
Within that supply picture there are likely to be several factors of rising importance, namely what type of iron ore is likely to be most sought after in coming years.
Steel production accounts for about 8% of global carbon emissions, and about 16% of China's total emissions, making efforts to decarbonise the industry vital to the net-zero goals put forward by most countries and companies.
The low-hanging fruit for steel makers is to use better quality iron ore in the process, as this increases the efficiency of furnaces and also limits the need for sintering, which is the process of using heat to agglomerate iron ore fines for use in a basic oxygen furnace (BOF).
Enjoyed word “Sintering” above, Silver will be three digits, Iron Ore more r
Relevant now….
Pease and love to the Aliens!
Price going to get walked up.
Will hit 23 very soon.
Devil
You are posting silver forcast under the heading Iron ore
:-)
Silver very clost to $30
may well break through today?
Sorry CJM i mean UFO -> 0.23 soon
I do hope you are right :-)
Probably today or tomorrow CJM
Yeah the MMs have backed off the 0.18.. ready for a bit of buying if silver breaks $30 I would wager..
There were loads of them camped out on 0.18 all week
Must be the first thing i ever predicted on UFO that actually happened lol..
Maybe its a sign.. I predict 5p by the end of 2024.. got to make the most of it before it goes back to being wrong all the time.. ;-]
Looks like you'll have to pay a premium for size now
Strange behavious by the MMs today. I tiried a 'limit' buy pre opening at 0.18p. No thing doing early so split trades up to NT (x3) to get the £6k. Toe back in here. Might make a proper investment here on the right news.....
Looks like we are gaining a little momentum every day.
Two very expensive new hires means that news can't be far away
Cj usa job number due at 130
@bdinvester
"Two very expensive new hires "
Do we know any detail yet ?
I hope they are given significant performance share options.
I do get the feeling we are about to see fireworks here. :-)
CJ no we don't
I've worked in consultancy myself and i doubt the guy we have will be on less than £1200 per day, probably more.
Its an expensive resource to susutain unless you know it will pay back quickly
Bd you worked in consultancy in the same sector?
Not in the same sector but in the same type of consultancy firms.
Rates tend to be more based on the grade of the consultant rather than the industry sector in my experience. Unless it's IT where the rates are plain daft
Seeing .23 again would be nice. Tbh it's bloody lovely just seeing a couple % blue days vs the complete stagnation of late
I have to say it’s nice seeing the positivity back here
NORM especially you mate
Makes me smile
So much to come here in UFO
our times just around the corner don’t get suckered in and sell cheap
Onwards and upwards space cadets
Lyndon
Ps it’s gonna 💥 soon
From my experience owning a recruitment business i disagree with you
Each to their own
Do you think we are paying him buttons?
If we get quick results, I'd pay him in gold doubloons :-)