Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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We may soon be entering a sellers market were buyers will dictate the price they are willing to pay for a property, and people could be stuck with high mortgages and unable to sell for the price they purchased the property for.
They say the markets never wrong. PSN are almost the worst performer of the major builder YTD. They have been running hot since before Covid, and at some point given current headwinds would plateau. Seems that has been confirmed today.
On the other hand, Vistry have been rebuilding their business (notwithstanding Covid) over the last few years, so I expect their update tomorrow to show more headway in the key metrics. Hopefully the market will reward this.
As for Wimps, I suspect that the jury is out at the mo. We will need to see what shape the overall market is like in a few weeks, otherwise any positive progress will get drowned out. I noticed they contracted for a new IT platform to manage all environmental and build quality functions and processes yesterday. This should provide productivity gains and help position Wimps as one of the better managed builders with respect to these increasingly important aspects of modern building requirements. Should also help push through planning applications a little more speedily.
Hopefully the US employment data points today and tomorrow won't be running too hot, otherwise the US market might just interpret that as requiring more large interest rate rises. A flattening out of payrolls would do nicely (not too hot, and not too cold). Could od with the markets settling down for a few weeks.
Finally, Boris still playing for time by resigning Conservative leadership, but wanting to stay on as PM for a while. "I'll behave myself honest ...". IMHO he should go now and we can get the grown ups back in UK GOV running the country for the benefit of all. This is no time for amateurs. I am assuming of course that we have any "grown ups ...".
...maggots crawling over the body hoping to hatch out into fly's.
PSN results are a bit of a mixed bag. Certainly hasn't impressed the markets, but nowhere near bad enough to drop the SP c.6%. Still saying f.y. profits likely to be ahead of forecast although volumes down. Not much of a steer to indicate what might happen here.
I can’t believe what Nadhim Zahawi did!! How can you accept the position and then 2 days after ask your boss to resign. Did he think becoming a chancellor for two days would look good on his CV??
Favourite to be next PM apparently (joking... even this lot couldn't replace one pathological liar with another - could they??)
is gone.
Hi All
Persimmons and vistry will read good, I haven’t seen a change recently so should make nice reading!
How they see the future will be most interesting.
Good luck all and happy trading
My guess is that there's a lag when it comes to the labour market and thus housing. 1 Economy starts to crack, 2 companies stop hiring, 3 proverbial hits the fan, 4 companies start firing, 5 unemployment goes up, 6 only then people stop buying houses or even start selling. My guess is that we're somewhere between step 2 and 3, as unemployment has been low. However, the stock market is forward looking and already prices in steps 4, 5 and 6 at least to some extent.
So I won't be surprised if Q2 numbers for house builders are good. It's probably guidance about next quarter that will move the share price and I expect that it might not be good. However, this might already be priced in. I'm never sure how the market will react on news!
Hi BigMan. No probs. I just thought the numbers seemed a little skewed to the high side :-). We should get some colour from PSN and Vistry as to future order book and cancellation rates. See what gives then.
Correct me if I'm wrong but japan has generational mortgages that pass from father to son or even grandfather to father to son. End result is the Japanese economy going nowhere fast in the past 30 years.
apologies, I was referring to the division and not site - the division I operate from push around 800 units a year
Hmmm, be interested to know which site you are referring to. Most major house builders average around one sale per site, per week max, with a run rate of around three hundred or so sites on the go.
One site closing 26 to 30 sales in 3 - 4 weeks is extraordinary.
I work for one of the leading Housebuilders and the last 3-4 weeks sales have been rock bottom - in fact in 2 weeks we have sold 4 houses and our target should be around 26-30 units..... This FY is going to be tough!
Vistry Friday
Forgot to add. Lots of US data points on jobs and Fed commentary on the interest rate roadmap due the rest of this week. Likely to be bumpy given current market nervousness.
From a personal perspective, looks like we will soon be rid of "Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire ..." , although sterling will likely be under pressure until new more responsible management in place at No 10.
Persimmon trading update tomorrow.
Well, the Construction PMI quickly put the kibosh on the builders in general at 0930 hrs. Consensus was for 55, and 52.6 was announced. Also, it suggests that householders had the biggest slow down. The commentary was quick to highlight that the builders are expecting a slowdown, although these were just opinions from talking heads looking for headlines.
It's hard to correlate this narrative when ALL house builders have stated brimming order books in the last month or two, and confirmed year end targets above previous year.
Unfortunately its the market that sets the share price, and is responding to the usual negative narrative from media and commentators.
Still, these are the times which allow an accumulation shares at a decent price which will undoubtedly prove to be a solid return on capital over the next few years. See what PSN and Vistry have to say tomorrow and Friday.
The word mortgage comes from the French word 'mort' meaning death I.e. payments till you die or a lifetime mortgage.
The prospect of borrowing money for 30, 40, 50 or more years is completely soul-destroying. I do feel sorry for young people trying to get on the housing ladder.
Hi Dimi
Do you not think we have been in a recession, I know they keep on saying we are going into a recession but to me we have been in one for about a year!
It might not have run into the housing side but to the man on the street probably yes it has .
I know covid kind of hid a lot of the problems to the back pocket.
But to me recession has been here for at least a year could of been longer.
All in my opinion of course and open to all views
Few TW houses were recently finished in my area in NW London, in the last 3-4 weeks and I'm already seeing people moving in. Literally there was one family in there before they had even put fresh asphalt on the street. Next to them is a TW block of flats that was finished a while back and that seems full now as well.
The question for me is how will things be when we enter in a recession which seems almost certain now. I think that's the worry today in the markets, this the big drop. I think there's still some downside but obviously good entry prices here and you get paid a nice divi to wait for the storm to pass.
"Be straight out of the arse of the fourth horse man"
Eh...?
Prob there, not interest rates going up. People finding money to buy them
Prob there manie.what been started got to be finished. Housing market. Be straight out of the arse of the fourth horse man.
I work on Taylor wimpy sites West Midlands....3 sites we got are going to finish 12 months ahead of schedule and we got loads of more sites just about to start some are 300 plots ...