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Taylor wimpey showing strong resistance around 100… good entry point will be around 10-15 percent lower … don’t know if it happens but house builders are not flying any time soon so don’t mind if I miss but will commit long term around those levels
I wouldn’t worry too much about the interest rates, since the new laws have come in and you have internet snagger’s being employed, at least 10% of the work force will be tied up keeping the customers satisfied!
Great song by the way:))
Not sure how the NHBC are going to deal with this, they are being overridden !
It’s like they are being pushed to one side, not good all round!
Just my view
All the best Ben
Onward and upwards! Who's afraid of the big, bad interest rate?
. . . dividend paying share that continues to erode capital! What are Warren Buffet's first 2 rules of investing?. . . no.1 Don't lose money, and no.2 refer to rule 1
Thankfully 70% of my portfolio is invested in global equity funds
I took out a mortgage at over 10% in the late 60s so 6/7% should now be considered the norm, problem is the people today want the two cars eating out and socialising. Need to cut back and its easily affordable.
Why should it be £1.80p -£2 when 2 year fixed mortgages are heading to nearly 7p!
Maybe come back when interest rates are heading South. Unfortunately the North bound is full as so Taylor Wimpy will suffer.
Please don’t cancel the Dividend to conserve cash otherwise it’s !!!!!!!!!
Everyone - no not everyone - Point is this is about Taylor Wimpey, speculative guess to it will or will not efferct the sale price for a new build is just that.
No wonder this share under preforms when its negativaty, fire cladding, interest rate, 2nd hand homes prices etc
This should be a £1.80-£2 share
Sunbeams.......so everyone who buys a new build doesn't have a house to sell!
Any price reduction of an older property will have some effect on the new build market.
Thats on existing 2nd hand houseing - not New build
Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/buyers-discounts-house-prices-higher-mortgage-costs-230159890.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAeL0CNZ2NoAxnzy5kkaVj3G5TPvHVUZR-k_IAZIpuv5LkbH35aWcIWrE4Btx0HtQaP9oih3PA3w2HFcqwXPeEdZhF74yuSLEaGXoavNsqmQitOxGO4vJYiJyKuiE_rXS3ybxwR3NZ7PVapl5B43aUYjPQUzqWQWQyRIpx_IhXOh
Worth a read, posted on BWY
Currently holding TW @ average 109p
ATB
Uk stocks are a crock of rubbish, will be a couple of years before money comes back here. If you can afford to wait 3-5 years, house builders will be worth buying spring 2024.gla.
Lol, no chance!! Next year maybe....
A decent day today so far!
Are we over the worst for this SP?
GLA
Zac,
And, within a smidgen, I'm breakeven for the year to date in terms of market prices ~ not that I really give much of a toss about those ~ so, in that respect, you're 5% ahead of me this year...
But I've just written a couple of pretty long spiels about all this on a private blog which I share with my circle of investing folk, and all that has left me feeling pretty positive overall, rightly or wrongly, about the state of the game right now as far as can be seen...
I would say that we all need a couple of months more of patience….
After that, we should have had half time whistles from both Persimmon and Taylor Wimps, along with updates from Barratt, Bellway & Battersea….
If we have just come through the worse six months of this cycle ~ which seems possible though I’m not holding my breath on that ~ the market might just be looking somewhat different at the start of September…
Of course, the Bank of England may yet p.ss on our bonfire…?
Strictly
Strictly - I've just carried out a half year analysis of my portfolio. I hold 30% by value in dividend paying holdings and 70% is invested in funds that don't pay any meaningful income and returns are reliant on growth.
So, after 6 months my dividend portfolio (with dividends reinvested) has returned -3.9%, and my growth funds +10.2%. A combined total return of +5.5%. If this can be replicated in H2 I'll settle for that!
Been lucky on few of our sites plots selling etc BUT been told after July going to slow right down ..
Strictly - thanks for the response. Good to see you have a strategy that's working. I'm pretty much the total opposite to your very focussed approach. I've been moving away from individual shares into trusts and funds. Plenty of diversification for me across both sectors and geographies. I'm down to my last 2 individual shares: Shell and Legal & General.
However, just as you indicate, I do remain fully invested at all times. It's been uncomfortable but seems to have worked over the long term.
Good luck.
“2019 +20.9%, 2020 +0.7%, 2021 +17.4%, 2022 -9.7% and 2023 to date +3.4%!”
Zac,
Well, out of interest and, hopefully, by way of some encouragement to you, I ran your figures into mine ~ starting with my figure as at the end of 2018 which was £25,431.
My current figure is £34,711 but changing for your percentages from 2019 made it £33,929, so that’s only 2% different so to all intents & purposes we have matched performances over the past four and a half years…
However, I did have a cracking 2019, when I made 57.4% for the year, so if you’d only given me your numbers from 2020 onwards, the current figure would then be £44,185, which is 27% higher…
In other words, for the past three and a half years, your investment performance has pee’d all over mine..
This is bringing out my inner anorak…!
But anyway, the thing is ~ for me, this is all about investing only in house builder shares, all about remaining fully invested throughout (with the one exception of swerving the covid tsunami in 2020), and all about being prepared to stay focused and to move between different house builder shares to pursue best perceived value…
The little word to conjure with there, of course, is “perceived”….
Obviously I don’t get it right all the time, but it’s about being right more often than being wrong and adding a few percent a year extra on top of house builders (well, the sensible ones, at least) already stunningly good long term performance..
But now you’ve engaged in this bit of correspondence with me, you can probably understand why so many of my family & friends followed me into this malarkey over the years..?
I started off knowing diddly about investing, though I had been in business for myself in various things since my early twenties and I’m now in my seventies ~ so that probably helped…?
Anyway, well done for how you’re doing so far…
Strictly
Strictly - you've certainly done well. I think you highlight (probably) one of the most important factors in investing . . . time!
I, also, am a long term investor. Certainly 15+ years. However, I've only been keeping really detailed analysis of my returns since taking early retirement mid 2018. My total annual return since has been as follows:
2019 +20.9%, 2020 +0.7%, 2021 +17.4%, 2022 -9.7% and 2023 to date +3.4%
Around 8 dividend paying holdings - 2 individual shares the balance in investment trusts, and around 15 investment funds for growth - a mix of passive index funds and actively managed.
Good luck
Since the financial crash, and Wimps almost demise, they have paid out 93p cash in dividends (including specials), plus a share £150m buy back last year of 116,942,362 ordinary shares, of which 25,000,000 have been retained in Treasury (to be redistributed in company employee incentive schemes) with the remainder cancelled.
Anyone who bought during the recovery (2009(ish)) will have achieved a simple (not compounded) return of around 12% assuming price paid of around 40p. Warren Buffet has returned around 9% compounded return over last 30 yrs, although this was higher in his early years and has been reduced by recent stock market collapses. So despite general perceptions Wimps have been a solid investment. Although its standard deviation is much higher that Buffet's, which translates as an exciting ride ...
“I know you've mentioned dividends in your comments but I don't think it highlights just how important they are. Over the 20 year period from 2000 to 2020 the FTSE100 index only climbed by 8.8%. Include dividends reinvested and the return was 122%”
Zac,
I do agree that dividends are important ~ they are the only reward we get from the company as shareholders, after all, as everything else, for better or for worse, comes from/is taken by the market.
However, if you’re going with end 2000 to end 2020, to make it twenty years, 122% gain might sound a lot when you say it quickly but it’s only 4% a year compounded.
…………………..
Again, I’d refer back to Bellway…. on the whole, they seem to slip by relatively unnoticed….
Not for nothing are they known as “Ghost Dog” in our circle (though, if you haven’t seen the film, that likely wouldn’t make any sense…?).
I feel blessed to have discovered, twenty years ago, the game that I am still very much in….
I realised back then that all it had to do was to carry on as before and it would likely give me a sufficient average return to more than meet my needs…
The thing is though, bl..dy hell, it’s a bumpy ride, and definitely not for the faint-hearted ~ and I’ve lost a number of people, who’ve dropped off along the way, from my circle of folk who followed me into this, but who couldn’t cope with the fear & gut-ache of the roller coaster nature of the journey…
You do have to try to be a bit buddhist about it all to be at relative ease with it, I reckon, but in my experience it still tests all of us from time to time (like now..!)
Strictly
“So over the last 20 years you've turned £1,000 into over £23,000 simply by investing in house builders? That's a return probably better than Warren Buffett's achieved!!!!”
Zac,
I’ve just updated my numbers since the recent stock market kicking and, from scratch in 2000 to date it’s been an average of 16% a year not 17% ~ so, my apologies for unwittingly hyping it up a tad…
However, that’s a bit more than twenty years and the upshot, as of about five minutes ago, is that the current number is £34,711…
This sounds great when you say it quickly, but Bellway by themselves have averaged a 16% ROE a year over the same time scale ~ did you know that?
Well, they did up to the end of 2022, so the current year will likely bring that down a smidge, but they had a great first three years of that period, 2000 to 2003, and I was playing catchup from there having not “got” house builders until 2003….
If you add in some trading between housebuilders (i.e., calling relative value rather than calling the market by moving between shares & cash, which is somewhat above my pay grade) then experience suggests you can, on average, add a further few percent gain a year…
Re Warren Buffett, he’s a fine fellow from whom I’ve learned much ~ even though I’ve never met him…
However, he’s also a salesman, as he talks about his average return over all the years he’s been at this ~ I think it’s still over 20% a year…?
Though, to be fair to him, he has repeatedly said that the huge fund is now an anchor to performance, but people don’t seem to believe him…
But it IS an anchor… a while back, perhaps when it was raining outside, I checked out his average return this century…
It was in single digits, about 9% I recall..?
…………
At the end of the day, everyone has to come to their own view about these things, but also nearly everyone here seems so preoccupied with price rather than value…?
Whereas, unless you happen to think that the country is going to complete ratsh.t (which, of course, it might be), then for me it comes down to looking at the long term past average underlying gain and going with the likelihood that that will continue.
And finally, there’s also the matter of buying at a good price…. Buffett bangs on about that…. if you use long term PBV as a basis, right now, house builder shares are cheap…
Even if the sector is going through a tough time right now, it’s been there several times in the past and generally, amongst the big boys, it’s only the less prudent companies who get into trouble because they over-confidently over-leverage their balance sheets…
Strictly
"You’re very much right about FTSE100 UK companies ~ the index as a whole has only given about 7% growth in total for all of this century so far, plus dividends, so definitely no cigar for them as a collective entity . . ."
I know you've mentioned dividends in your comments but I don't think it highlights just how important they are. Over the 20 year period from 2000 to 2020 the FTSE100 index only climbed by 8.8%. Include dividends reinvested and the return was 122%
"the last twenty of which have been purely in house builder shares and overall I have averaged about seventeen percent a year gain which I’m satisfied with . . ."
So over the last 20 years you've turned £1,000 into over £23,000 simply by investing in house builders? That's a return probably better than Warren Buffett's achieved!!!!
RR,
You’re very much right about FTSE100 UK companies ~ the index as a whole has only given about 7% growth in total for all of this century so far, plus dividends, so definitely no cigar for them as a collective entity….
I recall picking right through all the individual component companies in around 2002, crunched all the numbers, and could see, to paraphrase Kipling, that the entirety of it was “A trap set by knaves for fools” and thereafter avoided it like the plague ~ sticking instead to the one sector that made sense to me then and still does now…
And that is house builders…
However, if you have successfully chosen good companies from within the FTSE ~ and clearly there are some ~ then firstly well done for that and also this obviously then gives you more options, whereas I’m very much a one trick pony, just house builders, hence the moniker.
One thing my spreadsheet does do is track the progress of what £1k invested at the start, in March 2000, would be, at the end of each year & currently, based on compounding up (or down!) each year’s performance…
At the end of 2019, it was up to £40k but, as of now, it’s only £34k.
So, all I’ve done for the past three and a half years is go backwards….
But I’ve been at this game long enough to hopefully not let it knock my equanimity too much ~ to borrow from buddhism, that would just be dukkha ~ and especially having taken the mother of all stock market kickings in the credit crunch, which necessitated relocating to a somewhat smaller house, so that wasn’t so much fun…
So, anyway, I am looking for recovery once more, in due course, providing it doesn’t turn out that our wise & thoughtful leaders have pushed the nation permanently down the road to Hell in a hand cart…
Live in hope, eh..?
Strictly