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5% rise needs this to double to break even.
Started: 4PetesSake, 26 May 2026 11:43
Last post: aspers, 4 Jun 2026
4Pete……I am hoping for the same. Topped up another £10k this morning. Once Donald has moved on I think we will see this take off once again.
Good to see the move back over €7 today. Hoping to see over €9 by the autumn, which will be a return of 30+%
😂😂😂
In the end with the potential upside once the Iran war ends, it made sense to get in at €6.8.
Later this year €9 is realistic, which would be a 30% gain.
We still await an end to the conflict in Iran. Today we have reports of skirmishes in southern Iran and in the Straits of Hormuz and the oil price going up again.
There will no doubt be lots of punters hovering over the buy button hoping to get in at the bottom.
I nearly bought yesterday but waited and am glad that I did. It may still be possible to get in below 6.5 but it’s all dependent on what happens the gulf region.
Started: masaimara, 29 Apr 2026 13:36
Last post: masaimara, 13 May 2026
Looking a bit dire with this latest report!
Yes its a great top up point, i think...if you were spotting the 10-11am (uk) price at 6.11Euro was possibly the best buy point.
Watching it dive masaimara, fresh 52 wk low & about 35% of recent 3 month high. Lucky to have sold out at 8.5, but really considering dipping toe back in soon. Always darkest before the dawn. GLA, donalb
Brace yourselves , were headed for the 5s! Thought this would happen about 3 weeks ago but looks like this is it!
Started: donalb, 22 Apr 2026 12:51
Last post: Clank, 28 Apr 2026
I think you’re giving one person way too much credit here. There’s no solid proof anyone is deliberately flipping the Hormuz situation on and off, and the whole thing involves loads of countries with their own agendas.
And about TUI “shooting up” — that’s not a sure thing at all. Travel stocks don’t magically bounce just because a conflict cools down. They move on fuel costs, demand, consumer confidence, and the wider economy. If the situation drags on or gets worse, they can just as easily drop again.
So yeah, the whole idea that someone’s pulling the strings and that TUI is guaranteed to rocket feels a bit too neat. Probably better to look at the actual business numbers and how much risk you’re happy taking, rather than betting on world events playing out exactly how you hope.
Yeah, we all know Trumpy McTrumpface is basically running this conflict so that he can profit from insider dealing on oil companies for him and his mates. On that basis im tending to do the same, find the low point and top up with some more Tui & EZy . Assuming its all over in a couple of months you cant lose. BUT of course if it continues, the instability is going to become a problem.
I get the feeling he's trying to open and close the Hormuz in order to get a fresh round of applause each day ! But he wants this finished in days, he cant justify it to the Maga goons if he loses US lives. Sorry, getting political.
Hi all,
Hope you're very well.
I actually thought that the update today was pretty good - so with them delivering an EBIT of 5-25m for Q2, that now means that every quarter they are delivering positive operating profit and had it not been for this war, those figures would have gone down really well based on a usual quarterly update to the city - so as I say, a decent update on profit.
The significant 'downers' though are what's coming through now, as of course Q2 ended at the end of March and what's coming down the line is a little concerning and probably why the shares took a bit of a hit today, although noting that all airline/holiday stocks were down today. It's certainly concerning that hotel bookings are down 7% yr on yr , as they've been a real star performer recently and also that airline bookings are down 7% too for Summer 26. Guess like everyone, no one knows what's next. although if Trump is really serious about ending this 'useless' war, which I think he is, as he's getting so much pressure back in the US, then you have to believe that in the not too distant future and hopefully by the end of April, that he will drop the blockade; Iran will re-open the Strait of Hormuz and things may then settle down - can only hope eh and GLA
At lease theve managed to get their 2 cruise ships out
Https://www.tuigroup.com/en/investors/financial-news/tui-adjusts-fy-2026-underlying-ebit-guidance-at-constant-currency-due-to-the-continuing-iran-war
Hardly surprising due to the war & Lufthansa cutting 20,000 flights too.
Likewise Malfy. This is only going one way over the next year or so.
I will average down if we get close to 5 !
Started: masaimara, 30 Mar 2026 09:09
Last post: Strap-me-in, 30 Mar 2026
Very brave indeed
Just buy the dip. Only just getting in here.
I think we will be hitting the 5s very soon!!
Started: BaronGreenback, 19 Mar 2026 16:11
Last post: BaronGreenback, 19 Mar 2026
I know we are all fed up with Tui-pain, as a long term holder forced to average down time after time, this was finally looking good before Trump threw his toys out of the pram.
So we are all holding on for the long term now i guess, but is anyone topping up at this price yet ?
I have with EZJ but not yet on Tui
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well, although I totally understand the pain that you and all other holders will be going through right now and indeed the significant unknowns are sometimes even worse - so please keep your spirits up as best as you can.
I've included a link to a report from Marketscreener, which talks about the two ships stranded in the Middle East currently - I've included the report as it covers what initial costs may go into repatriation etc, additionally though it also talks about current metrics for the Company still being intact currently - of course the major Q that none of us know, is how long this war will last and of course with Trump very much in the driving seat, it's very hard to predict.
So hope it helps and as I say, please keep your spirits up
https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/tui-caught-in-the-crosshairs-of-the-middle-east-conflict-ce7e5fdbdb8bfe23
We're already 25% down because of the two idiots from Israel and America and looks like we're headed for the sixers. Going to be a massive hit for Tui.
Completely mad yes :)
I just topped up. Middle East is a mess and probable always will be.
As a LTH i have put more and more money in to Tui to maintain my ave price...So this morning I feel tempted to buy some more, am i mad ?
Started: masaimara, 26 Feb 2026 18:40
Last post: masaimara, 26 Feb 2026
Don't get excited by today's rise --- it's a long way back from here!!
Started: Forest34, 23 Feb 2026 16:04
Last post: Strap-me-in, 24 Feb 2026
I almost made it....and look at the dog now
I got out just over 9 would not touch Tui with a barge pole any more.
G L A.
Looking to get back in again
Just wondering if the fall is down to the Dow and other indexes?
Thanks
Not too bad thanks Mike and hope you are too. What you say makes sense regarding oil prices , especially if it does transpire and it's a drawn out affair. The world that we live in today!!!
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well.
The drop in the last couple of days, is undoubtedly tied to what Trump might do in Iran - ie go in for regime change. The military have announced this morning, that they are pretty much set up as required, although in 10 days time is when everything is fully in place. The tricky, is what Iran might do to the Strait off hormuz - clearly they are weaker after last year's attack by the US and Israel, but the Strait of Hormuz is their golden ticket really and what they do with it - let's be honest, if Trump attacks, it's because he wants regime change and if so, the regime have nothing to lose with going all out! They supposedly have 5000 naval mines and these can be easily offloaded from small, fast boats. 20% of world oil flows through the strait each and every day and so if they mined it or indeed threatened to bomb ships in the strait and in effect close it, then analysts believe the oil price could spike to $150 a barrel - can you imagine!!? So believe it's this uncertainty and Trump's pre-occupation and almost obsession with Iran that is undoubtedly stoking investors reluctance in travel/tourism stocks - just a thought to share
Not looking good. Could be a drawback into the 7s coming! Hindsight is a great thing , if only!!
Yip ii paid - the 26% - If I had known that I wouldnt have bothered and sold on ex-dividend day and bought back
Any body been paid their life changing divi yet?
Started: Sanyo86, 10 Feb 2026 22:28
Last post: Trevlad, 16 Feb 2026
I can see there's more than plenty sense in what you are saying Sanyo, is there also anything in the financial sense side of things that by easing the dividend back in it shows an intent but by issuing a small dividend there's more capital available to reduce company debts and then hopefully back to a 40 cents divi next year?
The Dividend Strategy Makes It Even Clearer
Historically, TUI paid out 30–50% of profits as dividends.
Now they pay out 8%:
0.10
EUR dividend
/
1.25
EUR EPS
≈
8
%
If they had stuck to their old payout ratio, the dividend would be 0.50–0.70 EUR per share.
Does anyone seriously think the stock would still be at 8 EUR with that kind of dividend? I don’t.
To me, it looks like management is deliberately keeping the price down — not because the business is weak, but because they don’t want to risk losing their “big investor” if the sanctions situation changes.
My Conclusion
After six years, participating in every rights issue, and sacrificing other great investments, I’ve come to this view:
TUI’s share price is influenced far more by ownership structure and geopolitical risk than by the balance sheet or income statement.
And that’s why we’re stuck at these levels.
Mike,my friend.
I´m a man of my word, when you have plans to visit Sweden just give me a headsup it is on me.
My TUI Story After 6 Years – And Why I Think the Share Price Is Being Held Down
I’ve been invested in TUI for six years now, and I want to share my perspective — partly to vent, partly to hear what others think. My disappointment comes from several different angles, even though I actually understand why the management acts the way they do and why the share price sits where it is. I also want to explain how I see the “Russian shareholder factor” playing into all of this.
How I Ended Up Here
I first bought TUI in March 2020, right after the pandemic crash. Back then, you basically made money on anything you bought. What destroyed my capital wasn’t TUI itself, but the worst investment decision I ever made: continuing to follow TUI through every single rights issue.
I believed in the company — and still do — but to avoid dilution, I had to sell other holdings at ridiculous prices. Looking at where those stocks trade today, it hurts even more.
For example:
I had a big position in Scandic Hotels, bought at 24 SEK. I’m a long‑term holder, so I expected it to recover toward 80 SEK with dividends returning — and that’s exactly what happened.
I did the same with Royal Caribbean Cruises, buying heavily in 2021–2022 at 30–40 USD. That position also turned out great.
But TUI’s repeated rights issues drained my liquidity. To keep up, I had to sacrifice positions that ended up performing extremely well. I kept telling myself TUI would recover just like the others. And here we are today.
Where I Stand Now
I’m sitting on a share price of 7.21 EUR after six years.
What I have left is:
a bit of downside cushion
and a dividend payout roughly equal to a month’s salary (coming tomorrow)
But emotionally, I feel like I completely messed up by believing TUI would rebound the same way Scandic and RCL did.
And the thing is — TUI has recovered operationally. Earnings are back to pre‑pandemic levels. Debt is higher, yes, but not to the extent that the stock should be stuck at 7–8 EUR when it used to trade at 20–50 EUR.
The Russian Shareholder Factor
Here’s where I think many people underestimate the situation.
The former major shareholder — the “Russian” — once owned 40% of TUI.
Now he owns 10%, because sanctions prevented him from participating in the capital increases.
This means:
His average price is likely 80–100 EUR.
He still holds 10% of all shares.
If sanctions are lifted and the share price is high, there’s a real risk he could dump his entire stake on the market.
And if 10% of all outstanding shares suddenly hit the sell side, the price would collapse.
The higher the share price is at that moment, the bigger the shock.
So yes — I believe management has a strong incentive to keep the share price low and stable until this geopolitical uncertainty is resolved.
The Dividend Strategy Makes It
Hi Sanyo86,
So had a few minutes and was intrigued by your q ref results days and the SP - so put the Q into AI and asked about the last 5 years. It came back with 3 instances, although checking the data directly from the Tui site and tracking the SP etc, there are actually two days when the SP did indeed increase on results day:
1. Wednesday, 6th December 2023 - FY23 results day - so 17.5 million shares traded - the day started at 5.95 euros and finished at 6.86 euros and so an increase of 15%
2. Wednesday, 13th August 2025 - Q3 results day - so again, around 17 million shares traded on the day and it stared at 7.89 and finished at 8.56 and so an increase of 8.5%
Hope this helps and if we're ever over in Sweden we'll give a knock and catch up
Best regards, Mike
Hi Mike, nice to have you back even though I honestly wish you still owned that crappy stock — the one where the company’s results have absolutely nothing to do with the share price, and neither do the loans, no matter how they report them to mislead people. Try finding the company’s total debt, short‑term or long‑term — suddenly it’s something completely different from what you’d expect based on previous reports, haha.
Can any of you find a single quarterly report in the last five years where TUI’s share price actually ended the day up? If you do, I promise that if you come to Sweden, your hotel and dinner are on me. Just let me know when you find a report day where the stock closed in the green.
So how is it possible that a company earning the same amount of money — or even more — with higher revenue, and let’s say double the total debt compared to before the pandemic, and with the same number of shares (actually fewer than before the pandemic), is still trading 400% lower than it used to? Why did the company change its dividend policy? Didn’t they used to pay out 30–50% of earnings per share? Why are they paying out 8% now?
That is: €1.25 earnings per share / €0.10 dividend = 0.08 = 8%.
What other company pays out only 8% of its earnings? This can only mean they want disappointed shareholders. And I understand everyone who sells their shares.
I’ve made up my mind — I’m going to follow this rigged stock all the way to bankruptcy. I want proof, and I’ve already gotten proof, that the share price has nothing to do with earnings, debt, or reports. Compare the numbers, go through the reports if you haven’t been around the last five years. The share price was higher when nobody was traveling than it is now.
As Mr. Bean would say — MAGIC!
Started: lenny787, 16 Feb 2026 11:34
Last post: lenny787, 16 Feb 2026
I follow this thread with interest. I first got into the stock in March 2020. Much to my disappointment, through the various rights issues, my break even point sits at around €28 now :(
Think I'll be holding this stock well into old age 🤣😫
Started: masaimara, 12 Feb 2026 17:45
Last post: Strap-me-in, 13 Feb 2026
I'm out as soon as I break even, it's been the worst share I've ever been invested in.... unfortunately I'll be charged an extra levy of £100 by Hargreaves Lansdowne,so I'll need around 9.80
Hiya Trevlad. I've been in Tui since before covid. Unfortunately covid has changed everything regarding travel stocks. It has emphasised just how vulnerable they are to world events and how quickly they are to react. Tui is particularily affected because of its debt which for vulnerable travel stock is a big deterrent for investors who don't want the perceived risk. I now doubt that we will ever see over 15 euros again regrettably. I am still in there and in hindsight i shouldnt be , i should have gone at 9.50 but I've been hanging on for 10 which I thought may be achieved with the announcement of a dividend , albeit a miserly 10 cents. Bad judgement by myself but I think a lot of us have been taken in by the perceived " rosy " future of Tui.
Or dreams of it reaching 15.98 to break even lol
It seems and feels like it's going to be a long way back from here. Can't see many positives to encourage a climb back to 9.50!
Started: donalb, 10 Feb 2026 09:48
Last post: Clank, 10 Feb 2026
This sums up why investing in Tui has been so frustrating over the past years. Brilliant stellar results yet the share price sinks - groundhog day anyone?
I'm so relieved to have gotten out of this ludicrous merry go round of a share when i did.
Best first quarter for a while... there wil be ups and downs but the trend is up
I think the main concern is that there's no revenue growth.
Likely will finish the day green - analysts re-rates will push the double-digits prospects even higher than the current ones
Just gob smacking this share. tui post a best ever first quarter with great news about emerging locations and yet the market mongs manage to pick out future concerns that may not even happen and drop the shares 5%. i guess same as before waiting for the war to end and no new one to start
Started: Strap-me-in, 3 Feb 2026 14:42
Last post: Strap-me-in, 3 Feb 2026
I wonder how much the tummy bug outbreak in cape Verde is going to cost us ....another nose dive?
Nah... Once Tui gets going into China, Japan, Thai, India, etc - there will be no stopping. If you are LTH we're lucky to be where we are, huge growth coming over the years
The trouble is though email , Trump is very bad for Tui and while ever he is causing turbulence around the world Tuis sp will be very turbulent and he is only just beginning the 2nd year of his term so expect more of the same!
Starmer's China visit. Great for TUI in their expansion into Asia... And for travel sector in general
Interesting article but a bit of a mixed bag as it does highlight my main concern about Tui which is it's debt!
Started: masaimara, 4 Jan 2026 22:17
Last post: donalb, 20 Jan 2026
And now Musk is threatening to buy Ryanair, just to ffff with O'Leary :-)
As per my post of the 4th Jan!!
No doubt the madness of America will threaten the Sp of travel stocks and world peace!!
Started: Strap-me-in, 9 Jan 2026 18:25
Last post: Strap-me-in, 9 Jan 2026
Looks like everybody had the same idea on today's rise ....I was within the cusp.... hoping I can make it next week
""ensuring high occupancy rates year-round"" Mark that with a fire brand. The ambition is immense, going from holiday seasons company into year-round
Yes, Germans have always taxed the dividend... 26% if you are not a german resident and I think 16% if you are a german resident. French do that too and Brexit has not made it much better. Italy I think has started doing that too - and so on
Email --- it's always been the case that Tui dividend tax is paid at source in Germany. It happened with the last Tui dividend I got before covid. It was just too much hassle and red tape to try to recoup it. Ps -- I think you will find the black swan is going to be madman Trump!
The company is making substantial moves across multiple Asian markets:
Current expansion plans include:
Opening its first Robinson Club resort in China in Meifan (scheduled for January 2029), featuring a 160,000 m² integrated sports and leisure resort
1
Launching TUI Blue hotels in Japan and China, with TUI Blue Anji set to open in 2026
1
Introducing the TUI Suneo brand to Vietnam to offer affordable holiday options
1
Overall, TUI has 29 new hotel projects planned in Asia, building on its existing foundation of 24 hotels in China and Southeast Asia
1
Strategic rationale: TUI CEO Sebastian Ebel emphasized that this expansion is designed to target new customer groups and reduce dependence on slower-growing European markets. The hotels are being designed to appeal to Asian, European, and international guests alike, ensuring high occupancy rates year-round and strengthening profitability
1.
With over 450 hotels worldwide, TUI views Asia as one of the world's most dynamic travel markets and a crucial part of its long-term global strategy
SOURCE www.travelandtourworld.com
Of course I would like the war or any war to end but from my personal POV of TUI business Russian tourists and even most of Eastern Europe don't matter much and soon they will matter even less. TUI is going into Asia. We are talking world dominance, let the magnitude of that sink in for a moment
Started: email, 30 Dec 2025 12:59
Last post: email, 30 Dec 2025
- to 10th February?... My feeling sp will be around 11 OR 12. DYOR
I have felt the same having been here for a few years now. I am still 12% down so will hang in there.
I gelt the same about my SAGA shares and after years of being at a loss as soon as they hit 180 and back in profit I sold…..needless to say they continued to rise so I bit the bullet and bought back in. A few months on we are now at 395 so this has been my catalyst to hang in here too. I feel 2026 is going to see all the airlines hit new highs so I will be sticking it out for a while yet.
Hi all,
Many thanks for your kind words and wishes - very kind!
It has been a rollercoaster and I invested in Tui, like many, for the growth potential in the sp, which unfortunately hasn't really materialised, unless you were lucky enough to get in at the very lowest point, which I certainly didn't.
Have left with a profit and I'm likely heading back to high dividend payers, although right now, I'm sitting on the sidelines to see how early 2026 plays out - never quite like it when pretty much all markets are at their all time highs and sentiment is very bullish - where have we all heard that one before.
Clearly 2026 may well pan out to be as good a year or even better than markets have achieved this year and if so, I wish everyone the very best in the investments - GLA
Hi Mike, yes I did the same thing a week or two ago.
I would just like to take this opportunity to thank you for your advice and opinion on this forum these past few years regarding Tui shares - especially around the time of the share dilution.
Your calm and reasoned thinking helped me to decide to not cash out at a huge loss, meaning i eventually managed to see at a very small profit.
Thanks again and I hope you have a very happy new year :)
Dont blame you Mike one bit. Its been a terrible few years with Tui. I would imagine you feel some sort of relief to get away from this roller coaster fickle share. I don't think I'm going to be far behind you , but it erks me not to at least break even! Good luck for the future.
Mike where are you looking to put the money?
Started: masaimara, 29 Dec 2025 11:26
Last post: masaimara, 29 Dec 2025
Not looking good again. I always believe that the first trading day after Christmas is a good short term marker for the sp and it's not good.
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