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Last post: losealot, 14 Jun 2024 19:50
So IG have completed moving our shares over to Germany
same number of shares just shown as euros and a price 6.77 per share.
There was no trading costs or currency conversion fees.
Started: MikeS02, 13 Jun 2024 18:20
Last post: MikeS02, 13 Jun 2024 18:20
Hi all,
Another crazy rollercoaster of a day, albeit somewhat confused by the 'red day' across the board and with travel hit pretty hard and including ourselves of course.
I know others have commented before but all this week, the US market has started off weak and significantly impacted the European markets, whilst finishing pretty strongly - the next day though, we never seem to catch up etc.
So clearly ongoing manipulation occurring which I know we know.
I've certainly decided to simply track the German SP, as that's where we're ending up anyway and it's the one that makes the most sense to me right now - here in the UK during today, some of our spreads were 5 basis points, which I've never seen and is undoubtedly down to the significantly reduced liquidity here in the UK as more and more brokers freeze our shares here, which will be ongoing and will probably get even less towards the 21st June 2024.
Can't wait for the 24th!!
GLA
Started: MikeS02, 12 Jun 2024 18:02
Last post: talkinboutWillis, 13 Jun 2024 18:03
Jarvis/X-O share dealing have FINALLY sent out an email to confirm their take after simply ignoring my previous attempts to get information:
'You may continue to trade the shares prior to the cancellation date. Please note that as per page 17 of the document, any holdings remaining after the cancellation date will be sold with the proceeds, less costs, expected to be credited on or before 12th July 2024.
So at least they will allow trading between now and the cancellation date of 8am 24/6/24
Trading 212 have today suspended trading in shares in Tui until the delisting happens, so if no LSE Tui trading can happen now over multiple platforms surely that must be the reason for the arbitrage disconnect?
As I have said in the past it is all down to SOUR GRAPES by LSE and MM's so expect it to continue till the 21st.
Mike thank you for your input always appreciated.
Maybe Hexam might help with this? Back in the RI days Hexam provided very helpful input on the matter.
Hopefully still invested and still reading this board?
Hi WackWack,
Many thanks for your thoughts and again today looks a bit 'wild' - as of now, Germany is at 7.09, or £6.03, whilst in the UK we're at only £5.92 - so again, assuming some 'stuff' going on behind the scenes, which is well beyond my investing capability and understanding. Again, this may well settle out this pm, but who knows.
Guess the great news is that we're ultimately in euros anyway, so will stick with the German SP and conversion calculation until things settle out - if indeed they ever will ahead of delisting.
Hi SK,
Many thanks for your kind message to us all and very best of luck back - in reality we're all in the same boat really - striving to make some money and sideline those pesky failures
GLA
Started: masaimara, 13 Jun 2024 11:13
Last post: MikeS02, 13 Jun 2024 11:46
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well.
Very difficult to give you a comparative, as on HL and as SK has shared, our shares were suspended on Tuesday evening, so can't access and/or run through a dummy sale - sorry.
Hey, that said - seems the sort of cost I was assuming anyway, so as such, believing we'll still be quids in following the delisting and many good things coming our way ref trading updates etc etc
Just done a dummy trade with Halifax to see how much I would pay in fees. Selling £40k of shares would cost £500 in fees. Whereas before it would have cost £9.50. Any cheaper platform options anyone?
Started: maxamillion001, 12 Jun 2024 16:27
Last post: maxamillion001, 12 Jun 2024 16:27
Started: MikeS02, 7 Jun 2024 18:15
Last post: Warrenbuff123, 11 Jun 2024 10:39
Mike always appreciate your posts, so don’t take too long of a break please :)
Hi mas and all,
Apologies for this final message as I know that I've posted 'far too many' in the last couple of days and as such, will take a break for a bit.
Have re-read my initial message back to you and for absolute clarity, I'm talking about mm's and ii's involved in tracker funds and etf's associated with the MDAX. Best Mike
Hi Mike --- thanks for responding. Yes see what you mean. Good reasoning as usual. Stroll on the 24th. Very interesting to see what the sp will do.
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well and thanks for the Q - interestingly, had exactly the same Q myself a little while ago, so have had the chance to think it through.
So I get that private investors may well buy ahead of going live in the MDAX come the 24th June 2024, but of course many may not - as we all know, momentum in SP's often drive it one way or another and others may simply wait to see what happens etc - as for mm's and ii's - it's a totally different scenario - if they cover MDAX stocks they will have a legal obligation to buy and include Tui in their mix as and when it's listed come the 24th June 2024. Their legal obligation therefore won't start til the 24th June 2024.
One final point to add - As we know, stocks are swings and roundabouts - just look at the close of the 31st May at £5.38. Who is to say that the stock won't get back to £5 by the end of the 21st June (clearly I don't see that scenario, but who knows eh) and before delisting weekend, which of course would be a bargain price for mm's and ii's from the 24th June 2024.
Do you see what I mean?
As it's swings and roundabouts, I really don't believe mm's and ii's will touch our stock until they legally have to and for that, it will be opening on the 24th June 2024.
I hope that answers your Q and best
Hi Mike , could I respectfully ask why are you so confident that mm's , ii's and private investors will suddenly start investing significantly as we join the MDAX on the 24th? If they wanted to invest , why wouldn't they have done it now when the sp is at the levels it has been over the last week's? But I do admire your enthusiasm.
Started: MaryBr190, 11 Jun 2024 08:25
Last post: MaryBr190, 11 Jun 2024 08:25
If the price rises, despite the selling that tells me all I need to know. Holding for further recovery in the next 12 months.
Started: donalb, 8 Jun 2024 12:11
Last post: donalb, 8 Jun 2024 12:11
Maybe more of the UK to Germany share movement, but not on the Friday closing price like last week. More likely the big guys making waves & money on the way to the MDAX inclusion.
Started: losealot, 7 Jun 2024 20:04
Last post: MikeS02, 8 Jun 2024 11:35
Hi losealot,
Great name by the way and hopefully once delisting has occurred etc, you and all off us, won't be!
Many thanks for sharing and HL are exactly the same, ie our shares will be frozen at the end of Tuesday, 11th June 2024.
Mind you, yours is 'super quick' - ours will take the rest of the month, although believe it will ultimately be quicker
GLA
To make things easy for you, we'll be transferring your position to Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Tuesday 11 June 2024, unless you've already traded out of the position by that date.
What does this mean for you?
The transfer should take at least 24 hours, during which time you won't be able to trade. Note that after the transfer your TUI AG position will be trading in EUR rather than GBP.
Started: Dathrilla, 7 Jun 2024 08:17
Last post: MikeS02, 7 Jun 2024 13:49
Hi Dathrilla and all,
Just a quick correction to the TERP figure quoted as below - so the 9.13 euros is totally correct, but this actually equates to around £7.76 in pounds - sorry for the error and confusion
Hi Dathrilla,
Hope you're very well.
Can only think that there's some consolidation happening, with maybe one of the bigger players doing some stuff off line - certainly wouldn't surprise me at all if it's Goldman Sachs and we get an RNS in the coming days - as shared a few times, it's the one big mm/dealer I really don't trust
Simply hope that the SP sticks around the £6 or 7.10 euros mark going into the delisting weekend and so that we have a strong week of delisting itself and when MDAX dealers will be taking up our shares - clearly anything higher for me will be a bonus in the next couple of weeks and move us towards our Terp price of 9.13 euros or about £8.32 as shared to Stille this morning.
Finally you will undoubtedly have noticed that the vast majority of the travel stocks have been under pressure again in the last 2 days and this could be down to the debacle of Israel yet again, who yesterday morning stated to Hezbollah that if they want a war, they could pretty much have one and based on recent attacks in Northern Israel - then no surprises if some investors took fright yet again at a possible escalation
GLA
Any thought?
Started: MikeS02, 5 Jun 2024 21:15
Last post: MikeS02, 7 Jun 2024 11:47
Hi Taverham,
Hope you're very well.
Just for clarity, the announcement on the 5th June simply stated that we had been accepted to join the MDAX.
We don't actually get into the MDAX until Monday, 24th June and following completion of the delisting. So afraid we'll all have to wait a couple of weeks until MDAX trackers; mm's and ii's get their teeth into our stock - like you and all of us though, can't wait
Hope this helps and GLA
And the price falls???
Hi Stille,
Great to hear from you and hope you're very well.
Terp in euros is 9.13 and please see link as below - hope it helps and best
https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/Capital-Increase-March-2023/20230328_TUI-Capital-Increase_TERP-Calculation.pdf-fa0e474dbc422304afbe1f2a0324b84e.pdf
Morning All
@MikeS02
Can you remind me what the TERP price is in €? Sorry am being lazy but I think it will take you 15 seconds! Thanks in advance. Ta
Hi all,
Sorry for the wait, but the Bourse only closes at 10pm their time and as such, they've just released the statement that we're in!!
Please see link below and should power us ahead tomorrow,
https://www.deutsche-boerse.com/dbg-en/media/press-releases/Changes-in-MDAX-and-SDAX-3987688
Started: KingofShorts, 7 Jun 2024 11:21
Last post: KingofShorts, 7 Jun 2024 11:21
Started: Stiperstones, 7 Jun 2024 11:17
Last post: Stiperstones, 7 Jun 2024 11:17
.From HL: “The European Central Bank (ECB) has, as widely predicted, cut European interest rates to 3.75%. But policymakers are now expected to hit the pause button as sticky inflation is a worry.” https://www.hl.co.uk/news/european-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-what-it-means-for-europe-and-whats-next-in-2024
Started: masaimara, 4 Jun 2024 18:52
Last post: colinpd, 7 Jun 2024 07:23
Thanks. I’m handing it over to my lawyer & have logged with the FCA. Utter disgrace. ABRDN can’t even trade via the Dax , no set up or system, so absolutely no options.
I'm not with your broker but am in the same position with mine - Trading 212.
They are saying they wont announce what is happening with my shares until the actual day of the move to the MDAX - Monday June 24th.
I'm thinking they will simply be transferred over from the LSE though as T212 hosts other shares on the same MDAX exchange.
*here
Is anyone on hear with JARVIS/X-O as their broker?? STILL not been informed what the options are with shares.... They eventually replied to my email saying they are working out their response and will be informing clients in due course.... RIDICULOUS given the short notice until delisting in the UK. Anyone got any more info from them?
I was too late to transfer shares, it also seems complicated to get the shares in my name, so I will be selling at a lose, going to check last day I can sell this is option I have sort of been left with, I am not happy, no advice provided it is my only option.
Started: masaimara, 5 Jun 2024 18:50
Last post: selecta6, 5 Jun 2024 20:06
Try reading the RNS properly!
Differing members of same family, therefore connected person.
What's that all about? Ebel buying and selling the same quantity of shares , just over 74000!
Started: MikeS02, 5 Jun 2024 12:24
Last post: MikeS02, 5 Jun 2024 13:19
Hi all,
Ref our broker upgrade today - Oddo bhf - thought you might like to understand who they are and indeed as moving over to Germany, guess over time, we need to get used to brokers we don't really know here in the uk - hope it helps and GLA
https://www.oddo-bhf.com/en/pd/1350/quisommesnous/1378/identity
Hi all,
Hope you're very well and enjoying the blue/green screens for once eh!
As shared a while ago, today marks the announcement of the changes to the DAX; MDAX and SDAX. All of these will be announced at the end of today and after the market closes.
Tui is pretty much a 'shoe-in' for inclusion in the MDAX and it could of course be that MM's; ii's and general investors like us are loading up ahead of the announcement.
That said, it could of course generate more interest tomorrow and when things are confirmed.
We've all been through quite a lot in the last 15 months or so, so enjoy and GLA
Last post: donalb, 5 Jun 2024 11:35
French Upgrade today:
TUI: price target raised at Oddo BHF
information provided by CERCLE FINANCE •05/06/2024 at 10:15
Oddo BHF confirms its 'outperform' rating on TUI, which is part of its 'Large Caps conviction list', given the upside potential from its price target raised from €8.8 to €9.2.
The research firm believes that the very likely inclusion in the MDAX "should strengthen the visibility, liquidity and, ultimately, the attractiveness of the stock". Also judging the context still buoyant for the value, it raised its 2024 EPS estimates by 5%.
The valuation of the stock is also an element that reinforces our positive view, since it reflects a very strong discount compared to the historical average (PE 2025 at 4.1 times, compared to a historical average of 14.4 times)
My back of an envelope calcs see this share having a value of around £9.00 based purely on the pre-rights issue price which didnt account for the loss of prime competitor. Im hopeful once fully on the German Bourse we will see this price and possibly better. onwards and upwards
Started: Dathrilla, 5 Jun 2024 08:44
Last post: Dathrilla, 5 Jun 2024 08:44
Has this recent downfall of the competitor fueled this jump?
Started: Savage_KeyboardR, 17 May 2024 09:47
Last post: robertgleed, 5 Jun 2024 08:36
Just got out at £6.01 got my holiday money now set up a buy at £5 .50 but I do not think I will see that before June 21st!!!.
I did think TUI had less presence at Heathrow - cheers for clearing that up and yep, two weeks is plenty of time for negotiations to be had and agreement to be reached, I genuinely think a deal will be done here as both parties have learned via some of the bitter disputes of recent times.
Hi SK and all,
Sorry, should have been a bit clearer - Gatwick is indeed our main hub for London, but we do enable holidays from Heathrow via flight 'partners' and with BA being one of them, then yes, can expect possible kick back - let's hope it's simply a negotiation tactic and it's sorted to help everyone have a brilliant hols
Hi SK,
Many thanks for sharing - and Yes, guess any news that's negative to flying may well hit SP's. The great news of course is that Tui don't fly from Heathrow - their main hub for London is Gatwick
Hi SK,
Many thanks for sharing - and Yes, guess any news that's negative to flying may well hit SP's. The great news of course is that Tui don't fly from Heathrow - their main hub for London is Gatwick
Started: Stille, 5 Jun 2024 06:35
Last post: Stille, 5 Jun 2024 06:35
Started: MikeS02, 31 May 2024 18:06
Last post: Stille, 4 Jun 2024 14:18
@MikeS02
Been fun in/out of Tui over many years…no stamp duty… haha! Need to think v carefully about taking € position here for long term. Maybe stick some in SIPP.
Thanks for commentary over last few months/year!
Hii Stille,
Hope you're very well and of course
Take care and best
They just need to sort plane shortage now…
Mike and all-I hope it’s ok to share with ezj chat?
Hi balmus and donalb,
balmus, huge thanks for sharing as always.
donalb - Totally agree with your comments - guess we'll undoubtedly be a winner out of this one and especially as they're based in Germany - it looks like at least those on holiday will be looked after - for those booked but waiting, then as I say, assume they'll get relevant compensation and as such, we'll then be a key beneficiary.
Big players in markets 'always love' when a key competitor hits the floor and today, is one of those days
Last post: halfful75, 3 Jun 2024 21:57
4b turnover to tap into is a bit of a Brucie bonus good flight good flight
Whats the loss of a major competitor worth to TUIs underlying value ?
Started: donalb, 31 May 2024 17:17
Last post: donalb, 31 May 2024 17:17
Whale of a trade must be due to the TUI share removal & settlement from the FTSE250 index. Wow !! Blue sky from here on :-)
Started: WackWack, 30 May 2024 17:57
Last post: Claret1, 31 May 2024 15:35
Thanks Mike. I also appreciate your thoughts. With the delisting I convinced myself it was a good thing and also straightforward (Im with HL). Like us all, its clear the delisting isnt straightforward for some inv administators and people are bailing out - and I for one feel an idiot I didnt see that would (more likely than not) see the SP fall this much. I didnt think it through and should have sold some and then buy back in at a lower price. That said I would have prob bottled it and bought in again by now. We all live and learn, but do anticipate TUI will more stable after delisting (unless am missing something from my reviews). I had that same thought before the last RI though - lol..... Im keeping the faith and holding on - delisting cant come quick enough for me. Happy days ahead hopefully (excluding Fridays)
Thanks for taking the time to share some thoughts, Mike. Re the Delisting, I was someone who viewed it, like you, as a good thing and automatically thought it might be fairly straightforward. Now I am wishing I had bailed simply because the transition is proving to involve too many unpredictable variables. So yet again we are stuck waiting waiting waiting some weeks for hopefully good news. Draining. Roll on June 24th.
Hi WackWack,
I've never been through a delisting as I'm sure most of us haven't.
As such, I'm holding on in and based on the fact that I truly believe that the delisting and all of the relevant investors in the FTSE 250 who have to sell up and including those that don't want to hold our shares following delisting are all adding to the downside for now. As it was stated that we will be replaced in the FTSE 250 from next Monday only today, guess no surprise that this has added to the downside pressure!
And whilst you share that Tui stands out, I know that you've posted previously where Tui stands out for the positive side of things with many of your investments in the red - as we know, swings and roundabouts!
We really won't know until the other side of the 24th June 2024, when we'll get a clear view on reality
GLA
Another tough day when 19 out the 20 stocks I track are up - Trainline and JD Fashion well up, for instance.
No cigars for guessing which is the ONLY ONE to finish down. Happens too often. Crippling.