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So IG have completed moving our shares over to Germany
same number of shares just shown as euros and a price 6.77 per share.
There was no trading costs or currency conversion fees.
Hi all,
Another crazy rollercoaster of a day, albeit somewhat confused by the 'red day' across the board and with travel hit pretty hard and including ourselves of course.
I know others have commented before but all this week, the US market has started off weak and significantly impacted the European markets, whilst finishing pretty strongly - the next day though, we never seem to catch up etc.
So clearly ongoing manipulation occurring which I know we know.
I've certainly decided to simply track the German SP, as that's where we're ending up anyway and it's the one that makes the most sense to me right now - here in the UK during today, some of our spreads were 5 basis points, which I've never seen and is undoubtedly down to the significantly reduced liquidity here in the UK as more and more brokers freeze our shares here, which will be ongoing and will probably get even less towards the 21st June 2024.
Can't wait for the 24th!!
GLA
Jarvis/X-O share dealing have FINALLY sent out an email to confirm their take after simply ignoring my previous attempts to get information:
'You may continue to trade the shares prior to the cancellation date. Please note that as per page 17 of the document, any holdings remaining after the cancellation date will be sold with the proceeds, less costs, expected to be credited on or before 12th July 2024.
So at least they will allow trading between now and the cancellation date of 8am 24/6/24
Trading 212 have today suspended trading in shares in Tui until the delisting happens, so if no LSE Tui trading can happen now over multiple platforms surely that must be the reason for the arbitrage disconnect?
As I have said in the past it is all down to SOUR GRAPES by LSE and MM's so expect it to continue till the 21st.
Mike thank you for your input always appreciated.
Maybe Hexam might help with this? Back in the RI days Hexam provided very helpful input on the matter.
Hopefully still invested and still reading this board?
Hi WackWack,
Many thanks for your thoughts and again today looks a bit 'wild' - as of now, Germany is at 7.09, or £6.03, whilst in the UK we're at only £5.92 - so again, assuming some 'stuff' going on behind the scenes, which is well beyond my investing capability and understanding. Again, this may well settle out this pm, but who knows.
Guess the great news is that we're ultimately in euros anyway, so will stick with the German SP and conversion calculation until things settle out - if indeed they ever will ahead of delisting.
Hi SK,
Many thanks for your kind message to us all and very best of luck back - in reality we're all in the same boat really - striving to make some money and sideline those pesky failures
GLA
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well.
Very difficult to give you a comparative, as on HL and as SK has shared, our shares were suspended on Tuesday evening, so can't access and/or run through a dummy sale - sorry.
Hey, that said - seems the sort of cost I was assuming anyway, so as such, believing we'll still be quids in following the delisting and many good things coming our way ref trading updates etc etc
Just done a dummy trade with Halifax to see how much I would pay in fees. Selling £40k of shares would cost £500 in fees. Whereas before it would have cost £9.50. Any cheaper platform options anyone?
TUI no longer available to trade on HL platform it seems. I didn't buy back into Tui in the end as I've opted to buy up more BT instead... Best of luck all, I imagine this chat page will be shutdown at somepoint imminently, as TUI departs the LSE.
And finally, I see that my Euro shares are showing up 2.1% whereas Market Watch is showing Pound shares up only 1.4%. As you say, a strange day.
Sorry to go back a step. Yes, I see what you mean that Market Watch is showing it at £6.03 - hope they are not working in currency exchange costs or other costs if you were to sell TUI shares and convert your Euro to Pounds- that would be huge 15%. Hope we haven't been suckered.
Mike, can't say as I know more than zero about arbitrage but my TUI on II is now shown in Euros - closed last night at E7.19 so as you say, that converts to £6.11 @ 85% arbitrage. So I don't see TUi jumping up there this morning, except as a correction.
Hi all,
Hope you're very well.
So just coming through as I found today a really interesting and 'strange day'.
Strange, because for the first time I can remember since investing in Tui from April 2023, arbitrage didn't seem to work today?
So with arbitrage, as I know most of you will know, but just incase you don't - when a stock is dual listed, changes in the SP on either side tend to influence each other and therefore a green day in one is usually followed by the same on the other side and exactly the same with a red day.
Today was different - over in Germany our SP was pretty much in the Green all day. Our SP in the UK was pretty much in the red all day and only started to move into the green come mid afternoon.
Secondly and assuming it's something to do with the relative breakdown in arbitrage, the % link between the two SP's has broken and again, for the first time I can remember.
So if you'd like to check backwards, you can always go to the German SP; apply an 85% conversion and it will take you back to the UK SP on that day - very consistent.
So with us finishing in Germany at 7.19; our UK SP should have been £6.11, as opposed to the closing price of £6.03.
I only have one rationale and it's to do with the fact that HL 'froze' our UK shares last night, as indeed IG did too and with regards the delisting.
So I can only think that today, HL have been clearing through sell orders; automatic sell orders etc etc and this is the rationale for the disconnect - if anyone else has some thoughts I really would be interested to know, as I'm sure others would too.
So if it is to do with the above, then feels like the vast majority of the UK HL/IG sell orders have been processed and tomorrow should be a more normal day in terms of arbitrage etc etc - indeed if the above is true, we could well see an initial UK SP lift to the £6.11 level unless of course there's bad news across in the US ref interest rate pathways which are released by the Fed our time 7.30pm from memory and it affects the overall market.
Finally, with HL being the biggest asset manager in the UK and likely the biggest number of our shares frozen until the end of the month, then it could of course be that arbitrage is now broken and as such, I'm now simply focussing on the German SP and applying an 85% discount to see where my price would be here in the UK
GLA
Mike always appreciate your posts, so don’t take too long of a break please :)
If the price rises, despite the selling that tells me all I need to know. Holding for further recovery in the next 12 months.
Hi mas and all,
Apologies for this final message as I know that I've posted 'far too many' in the last couple of days and as such, will take a break for a bit.
Have re-read my initial message back to you and for absolute clarity, I'm talking about mm's and ii's involved in tracker funds and etf's associated with the MDAX. Best Mike
Hi Mike --- thanks for responding. Yes see what you mean. Good reasoning as usual. Stroll on the 24th. Very interesting to see what the sp will do.
Maybe more of the UK to Germany share movement, but not on the Friday closing price like last week. More likely the big guys making waves & money on the way to the MDAX inclusion.
Hi losealot,
Great name by the way and hopefully once delisting has occurred etc, you and all off us, won't be!
Many thanks for sharing and HL are exactly the same, ie our shares will be frozen at the end of Tuesday, 11th June 2024.
Mind you, yours is 'super quick' - ours will take the rest of the month, although believe it will ultimately be quicker
GLA
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well and thanks for the Q - interestingly, had exactly the same Q myself a little while ago, so have had the chance to think it through.
So I get that private investors may well buy ahead of going live in the MDAX come the 24th June 2024, but of course many may not - as we all know, momentum in SP's often drive it one way or another and others may simply wait to see what happens etc - as for mm's and ii's - it's a totally different scenario - if they cover MDAX stocks they will have a legal obligation to buy and include Tui in their mix as and when it's listed come the 24th June 2024. Their legal obligation therefore won't start til the 24th June 2024.
One final point to add - As we know, stocks are swings and roundabouts - just look at the close of the 31st May at £5.38. Who is to say that the stock won't get back to £5 by the end of the 21st June (clearly I don't see that scenario, but who knows eh) and before delisting weekend, which of course would be a bargain price for mm's and ii's from the 24th June 2024.
Do you see what I mean?
As it's swings and roundabouts, I really don't believe mm's and ii's will touch our stock until they legally have to and for that, it will be opening on the 24th June 2024.
I hope that answers your Q and best
Hi Mike , could I respectfully ask why are you so confident that mm's , ii's and private investors will suddenly start investing significantly as we join the MDAX on the 24th? If they wanted to invest , why wouldn't they have done it now when the sp is at the levels it has been over the last week's? But I do admire your enthusiasm.
To make things easy for you, we'll be transferring your position to Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Tuesday 11 June 2024, unless you've already traded out of the position by that date.
What does this mean for you?
The transfer should take at least 24 hours, during which time you won't be able to trade. Note that after the transfer your TUI AG position will be trading in EUR rather than GBP.
Hi all,
Hope you're all very well.
So another week closer to delisting which is great and closer to getting investment from those mm's; ii's and private investors in the MDAX and as of the 24th June 2024.
So a couple of points:
1. So looking at the RNS tonight, it was Blackrock who reduced their holding quite considerably last week and hence resulted in our SP pressure towards the end of May - sure they're delighted that they missed out on this week's increase eh!!
2. Whilst a 'tad' disappointed that we failed to hold on to the £6.20 as of Wednesday, I can't complain in the current environment of a 10% increase for the week - and hopefully many more of these into the near term future to come our way
That's it - have a terrific weekend and GLA