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I thought Moagi had returned to being a donkey!
Wrong again!
I was lucky this afternoon. I put upmy platform ladder to cut the top of the laurel with a Stihl 2-stroke hedge-trimmer! My balance is not what it was , so balancing on it was not easy!
I was stretching across the top when I thought the whole ladder was tipping. Then I realised one of the horizontal platforms had see-sawed and my left leg had gone through the gap.
Not funny, the left leg still has huge scars on both sides of the calf , and I was holding a hedge trimmer with the motor running!
Ended on my back on the lawn, and the Stihl never caught any part of me! Took me ages to find my specs half way across the lawn!!
TG needs to get TLOU going, because I still another 3 sides to my property that need tidying up, all hedges and bushes and too much for me on my own! Another shorter but higher laurel cost me £200 a few months ago , and it is back to where it was now!
It took two pros to cut that safely , one stabilising the ladder, too high for me (12-15ft) with a hedge-trimmer or chain saw in hand!
So who are you thinking of mrmoagi, the BDC..?
Interesting the consensus think BPOPF are the source. Think again.
Thanks Brad. That is really helpful.
Financing from 100% debt is the root of TG's plan to start small, plough profits into expansions, request ever-decreasing interest rates as loans are raised against ever-increasingly security whilst the business grows!
It is clever, borrow $10M , a small amount for a business start up with the potential of TLOU, and then take much bigger loans at lower rates.
A 50-50 partnership with Synergen Met could have really complicated funding but TG , yet again, foresaw that! The two partners are to fund their side of the agreement in isolation - so we can do what we like!
My link to Synergen the other day said they make their money from renting out equipment.
If that is their intention it too makes life easier for TLOU.
Assuming the SP is above the option price in June/July there will be the possibility of new funds coming at a good time for Hydrogen , Solar or CBM gas usage. The flexibility is really quite amazing.
,
That said, will the pension fund want equity? They already have near 8% of the company so they have a vested interest in our success, which , imho, TG considers ideal for the long-term.
Will they need or want more? I dunno! They'll probably have an options entitlement - would they settle on those 8c a share as savings in an equity deal???? Again, I dunno!
I am happy to wait to see what is in the quarterly report. This one will be a joy for TLOU to write after so many in where they had to watch their p's and q's in a fairly hostile environment.
100% debt with the Bots IMO
TB - just keep buying
Smith - don’t you bleeding dare take me off filter so soon. Your already limited credibility will be totally lost if you do.
But then we all know there is no way in Texas you cannot bear to miss out on an adult conversation.
Intersting gents, I agree with the SPV in order to isolate financial risk.
Do you have a reason why you think the financing will be pure debt..?
I must admit CC's "long term strategic holder" has lead me to believe there will be an element if equity involved.
Morris, if you and I are about to start a beautiful bromance, you are going to have to cut your wing man loose.
10/10
My view is the full $10m will be all debt since whoever the lender is, is going to want to lend it to a specific SPV set up to ring fence the PPA (and more importantly match the PPA revenues against the project finance loan repayments).
The PPA was and is critical to unlocking finance that is obvious. You can't drill further to increase gas flows without cash! That is logic right there Brad.
Now we have the PPA I'm sure funding will follow in fairly short order as has been indicated. Then we can get to work on the transmission lines and more drilling if required. Drilling and dewatering whilst the transmission lines are being built would seem to be the most efficient use of time would you not agree Brad?
This really interesting bit (for me at least) is the tie up with Synergen, will they be able to use some of the $10 million to get that up and running? If they can achieve early revenue from Hydrogen / Carbon then the pot can be topped back up. If it really takes off there may not even be any need for the second $20 million tranche of funding further down the line? All interesting possibilities.
That's interesting DtE, my thoughts are similair, here's my gut feeling scribbles after converting to GBP, just for fun whilst we are waiting for the Finance.
£7.25M
£5M straight debt at 8% to 10% interest
£2.25M in equity at 3p placing.
Giving 75,000,000 shares.
Tital Shares - 600,199,039 plus 75,000,000 = 675,199,039
BPOPF holding was 47,230,769 = 7.87% holding
Plus 75,000,000
BPOPF now 122,230,769 = 20% holding.
Not sure if this is thinking with my heart and not my head but I would be happy with this.outcome.
I think the SP response to Monday's news has been a bit lame because investors are waiting to see how much equity is given away with this forthcoming $10 million finance package. If its the BOPF financing this, they are going to want to lower their current average. If we assume 25% will be equity funded and 75% loan, we could be looking at 50 to 60 million additional shares at around 3p. No doubt the board will also reward themselves for achieving that milestone. Personally I would be quite happy with that scenario.
Haha I am filtered for good - yet again. Haha sure thing.
As for your logic - haha again. Can you remind me when was the last Danny Horne report or update released?
TB , I can tell you now , the critical path depends upon Harrods opening their doors :O)
Moagi , that was a joke before you bore everybody else with your response!
I worked in Brompton rd a while back and Harrods was the corner shop for us. I rarely entered and exited using the same doors , Hampton Court maze has nothing on Harrods.
Cheers everybody, it is refreshing to be able to disagree without being branded an idiot or other moagism. He is filtered for good now we have forthcoming news from TLOU and we no longer need to guess what is happening.
My logic explains why the sp is pathetic, has been pathetic for too long, and why the price will rise with positive news on gas flows. The proof is in the eating , so Danny's report is the critical news that I await.
The PPA justifies TLOU decision to crash on with poles and wires , and as Appiama says , they can be used for Solar which is now a priority for Synergen Met in 2022 if we are going for Green Hydrogen.
At least there is a good chance of action before the options deadline - a week ago that was less certain.
Critical Path Analysis from an accurate Programme is a must.
I'm just doing some work in my Primavera P6 Plans now so maybe I can help out.
I'm freelance and will take payment in either cash or equity lol.
I think you are in a minority of one with that sentiment Brad. It made perfect sense to me to have the ability to generate revenue through the grid connection before expanding the field purely on raised funds - both economically and enviromentally. Covid - or rather our over reaction to Covid - is neither here nor there; the decision to connect before achieving commercial flow rate data was made prior to all this drama. It also enables us to proceed with a scaled solar option too. Therefore if we assume funding for the powerline link-up was reliant on the PPA - its primary level of importance up until the signing this week can not be doubted imo.
I guess the concept of managing around critical path components is a concept totally lost on some here.
It isn't bad news TB , is a step forward , but improved gas flow will be a giant leap for the shareprice imho. Eric Molale may not have been perfect, but he was right in demanding that gas flows be demonstrated to be commercial then, and it is still true.
Without Covid, Tlou would have drilled some more wells to speed up the dewatering and we'd be funded by now if not actually connected and delivering power to Serowe!
The PPA , and the funding come to that, play second fiddle to getting the gas flowing and that is hindered by Covid afaik. Danny's report is overdue imho , I am hoping for news from him in the quarterly report.
If your missus is outside Harrods two days before the sale starts, giving her more money to spend is absolutely pointless until the doors open. Funding is that extra money to my mind - it is now at risk of being stolen or mispent - a waste of money?
The signing of the 10MW PPA was a huge milestone, not only for this company, but also for other potential gas to power producers within Botswana. Clearly the 2MW PPA signed previously wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. This PPA will act as blueprint for similar PPA’s going forward for the whole of Botswana. The fact that Tlou has been the Guinea Pig (being the first to develop and sign such an agreement) is why it was so painfully slow to finalise. In 4 or 5 years when the company applies for say a 50 or 100MW PPA, no doubt it will be broadly similar to the one that’s just been signed, hence why it was so important for the company and for the Botswana Government to get it right. Mondays announcement unlocks everything in my view, if the price stays at this level, I’ll be adding more.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one Brad, I guess it's just a matter of opinion.
Without the PPA, there is no finance package, without the finance package there is no TL's, without the TL's there is no Power. Therefore you have nothing to sell and can't become a member of the SAPP (where you need to be producing 5MW of Power before becoming eligible)
This is what TG stated in the RNS;
Tony Gilby, Tlou's Managing Director, said "Signing of the 10MW PPA is a major step forward for Tlou and builds on the excellent progress made to date. It has taken some time and considerable effort to get to this point as all of those involved would appreciate. This achievement puts the Company on a firm path towards development of the Lesedi power project and considerable growth potential.
With strong demand for reliable and cleaner power in the region, this 10MW project is expected to be the start of much larger developments by the Company.
This is great news for the Tlou, our shareholders and for Botswana. After a long wait we can now look forward to getting the project up and running."
ADVFN is a much better platform for typing than LSE which resizes the buffer at a whim, and my blooming mouse cannot be turned off and somehow moves the cursor while I am typing.
Many of the resulting typos are scrolled off the top of the box so I don't see them!
On ADVFN , not a problem , you can edit your post after posting it!
Our liberal studies lecturer applied for a touch typing course for us, but the college would not pay for it. So for 50+ years I look at the keys rather than the screen and it shows! Apologies for not proof reading.