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Weekend musings...
On the sample size question, we know it's small, 23 patients outside of the control group and half of these had Foralumab with Dex. A little frustrating that they didn't go higher, but that's speaking as an investor and thinking of market reaction...less relevant to TILS, they're looking at bigger picture...timescale of trial more critical and just a stepping stone to bigger things...feels like they wanted to get through this stage quickly and also use the clinical data to aid the imminent ph2 on MS/Crohns.
All sounds positive given sound bites and activity this month. While I'm comfortable the data looks anecdotally good, and to be talking the way they are now, credibility would be shot if the numbers from biomarkers didn't back it up so see that issue diminishing as a consideration. Question around wording in the RNS important - they've not shown they are blessed with delivering clarity in RNSs, so wording really critical!
In terms of market reaction, you would expect it to be positive given US attention and small free float, and a growing realisation we aren't done with Covid by Spring...
There's also the more fundamental piece the data gives a platform for the MS/Crohns trials to be a success, so lot of upside to investors beyond the Covid element from here.
Funding doesn't sound like an issue, even if they sought investment in 12 months time, don't see that as a negative given drug progression by that time, (would see it as a positive as shows intent and they don't seem frivolous with expenditure). I was surprised by cash burn, thought it would be higher...so all looks positive there.
Its six years since the agreement on Foralumab with NovImmune so a long development path to get to this point, and not something pharma would be able to replicate any time soon so see acquisition as inevitable...progression this year just makes that figure higher and all the investor activity helps push that up and create interest...just hoping its later rather than sooner, but given level of shares in secure hands, capital, CMO appointment and pipeline assume / hope that won't be a short term event.
Hi Oldapache, also sorry that we don't agree on the Accustem demerger process, nothing wrong with different opinions, I could give you a long list of why I think its been handled badly and damaging to both the share and share price. I'm also sure that you are in a minority in thinking its been handled well.
Very important Communication with investors which avoids shareholder uncertainty would have been a good start. ( I think the numerous daily posts are testament to that )
What was wrong with a standard demerger process that didn't arrogantly impose an Illiquid asset on shareholders ? I know for sure, that if you withhold / delay anything that's been paid for and belongs to somebody else it's a recipe for a negative reaction.
"Please let me know if your the most perfect person in all your sharedealing / business / daily work-life, monetary dealing and general all-round perfect person. lols"
Guilty on all counts, I'm far from perfect like everybody else in life
I am also not running a public company that makes a decision after discussions with a BOD that impacts shareholders if that was your point for the question.
Onwards and upwards hopefully is the future, Great positive fireside chat and a brilliant appointment which is a major achievement for the company and undoubtedly will have raised eyes in the sector.
I personally don't doubt this share at all. The science is sound from what I've seen and as clinical trials enter phase 3 across the board we will be in a very different situation. Until then I suggest switching off. It's all very exciting right now but the real excitement is when one of our many treatments is finalising phase 3 for a chronic condition.
Agree with all of the rest though.
Do I doubt this share? Of course I do. Any investor that tells you’re they’re 100% confident in their decision is either lying to you, or worse, to themselves.
The overall profile & pipeline of TILS is impressive to say the least. Notwithstanding this, you still have to be objective when considering if this is a good investment.
There are pro’s and cons to all current factors which are worth considering.
Do they have some fantastic groundbreaking technologies? Yes, of course they do. That being said, why haven’t they received any solid offers yet if the technologies are that great and indeed, likely to be disrupters to the rest of the MAB industry?
Is the cash position good? Yes, phenomenal at £62m (or whatever the good doctor said) against MCAP, then again, at a burn rate of £32m budget this year & £28m next year, it’s not going to last long. Clinical trials, R&D and other various other expenditures cost a fortune in this industry.
They are spending $10,000+ a month just on redchip by the looks of things. A lot of money for a business that doesn’t produce any revenue yet.
If the covid results are that promising, surely we would know more by now? Will the results be underwhelming or insubstantial?
Who knows is the honest answer.
To look at things from a different perspective though, the current board (including the recent appointment) seem to have a great background and a good grasp of the current situation, and indeed, the plan ahead.
If just 1 of these technologies does come to fruition, the ROI based on current share prices will be exponential.
You could say that currently, the MCAP and SP just looks too good to be true based on the pipeline and progress in trials so far.
If the Dr is right about Aim companies being worth 50/60% less than main market businesses, then we are potentially at the right money (or slightly less than we should be).
If accustem is worth £2 a share then great, we’ve had fantastic value out of TILS & it proves what a great buy it was even at this stage. It also proves the ability for the BOD to commercialise opportunities. Conversely, you could argue that a lot of the value has gone from TILS if the Accustem price is strong.
If accustem is 10p a share, then based off current price, we still have value & potentially proved that TILS was where the real value was.
It’s very hard to really call it.
Either way, I think long term holders will probably be safe on this share.
I will reiterate my position on the upcoming data though. How can you possibly be out when potentially pivotal results are about to be released that could send the SP into orbit?
If FMAB is successful, it will be going through expedited further trials & could see a JV with one of the big boys.
One thing is certain thought, we will soon see, that’s for sure..
These are all my own opinions and not intended to be investment advice.
GLA
Just managed to catch up with the KS video.
Company burn rate of cash is currently $500,000 a month.
From March/April this will go up to $1.5m-$1.7m a month.
A strong indication that a Phase 2b trial with larger numbers has been programmed in for the Foralumab treatment of Covid.
I haven’t sold a single share in this company and don’t plan to for a while yet.
The company continue to deliver on their promises including StemprintER demerger and main market listing. So what if delivery timelines are a little bit out, every timeline in business seems to be a little bit out within the last year and there’s a good reason why!
I strongly believe now that this company is going to be bigger than most of us think.
Another demerger within the next couple of years could also be on the cards.
All they can hope to take away from the trial is safety profile for the drug, numbers are too small for any statistical significance. A good outcome would be no safety concerns and some signs it helped patients. Then role on larger phase 2b study to look at efficacy.
Omg what a strong end to the interview!
Yes results a few weeks away which is a bit disappointing but how excited was he getting talking about financials being covered right up to the end of 2022 and then stating how any one thing in the pipeline could transform the company into a billion pound company.
He's very confident this company is going to provide good results isn't he.
Hold for gold
unbelievably positive feedback from the recent trial. What stood out for me was that regardless of the so far unknown results of the trial on patience outcomes....he stated that during this trial there was no toxicity issues, good safety profile that are you would experience in present day treatment. That alone is highly significant. If the trial results just merely matched present day treatment and outcomes, but with no toxicity or complications then this would become the treatment of choice, for most dependent on price, i guess. If we get better outcomes, with no complications then hit gold.
No problem - enjoyed drafting the post.
Thanks Roker - nice to hear some of the "behind the scenes" thinking to how that sort of interview is thought through. It gives us further assurance to what we bought into.
Anyone picked up on the 'Brazil data should be available in two weeks' part
Greend100,
Try the walnuts on Yockenthwaite porridge - very finely rolled oats prepared at a farm up in the Dales. You can buy online.
To be clear, I have no financial interest in the Yockenthwaite foods business.
Sorry I meant to click Strong Buy as usual on the last post.
Hi again.
I would add that Howard Weiner was also publicly very bullish about Brazil the other week referring to strong "anecdotal" feedback on the trial. Weiner doesn't strike me as a rash individual, so I would guess that what we are seeing is an approved comms strategy for Brazil based on very high confidence levels.
If your 100 % confident you can be bullish .
What does he know that we don't .
A lot I Think .
Patience will be the reward , but I am all for taking profit as we go and leaving some to run , core holding stays
Great insight Roker...thanks. Hoping to listen this weekend but tied up with the day job at the mo...
Dr KS has often come across as bullish but as you say must be getting guided on what can be said ahead of an RNS on the top line data...especially with US presence and now off Aim.
Walnuts with porridge...not sure about that one...but I guess, don't knock it till you try it...
Good luck with the Shrews tomorrow...
Rokerpark68,
Excellent post, many thanks for the summation.
vbw
Thank you. Very glad you find them useful.
ATB
As always, Roker, much appreciation for your valued comments. Your insight is excellent.
Hi Greend100
Likewise - hope all's well with you too. Good to hear from you. Here's my response.
Just finished watching the whole thing.
Having run two listed companies myself, I can tell you that a lot of time was spent thinking about what I could and couldn't say publicly at any given point in time. Above all, I knew the ultimate sin was to over-promise publicly and then under-deliver. Total loss of credibility would ensue, followed by angry phone calls/communications from aggrieved professional shareholders. It's obviously even riskier dropping this particular ball if you have US investors, who of course love to litigate.
Personally I wouldn't ever have said some of the things Kunwar said (or their equivalent for what I was running). I wouldn't take the risk. He is a smart guy and should have been well-briefed by his advisers, so I therefore take his tone and comments to be very bullish.
By the way, I spend most mornings reading RNS announcements at 7am, usually just after I've made porridge for me and my wife to have in bed. She likes blueberries on hers, whereas I'm a walnut and raspberries man. Anyway, I like reading them so closely because I can recognise a lot of the "code" we used to use in our own announcements to try and convey things we wanted to get over without exposing ourselves to criticism for being overtly over-optimistic. Good advisers really know how to get the messaging right - it's a real art. I used to like helping to draft RNS wording alongside advisers - it was really interesting trying to use language in this way.
So to re-iterate, even allowing for Kunwar's natural enthusiasm, IMHO this was a very bullish 27 minutes.
Cheers
well that was a very positive chat
ps,
And that goes for all the accustem knockers, lols.
vbw
Well after a bumpy ride and being sat on a loss for ages im in the blue and just added another few shares im up too 3200 shares now how all us holders get rewarded handsomly for our patients and the world gets rewarded with some life changing and life saving products long live tizuana and their patients :)
Hi Roker, hope you're well...
The Stockbros Twitter feed from the fireside chat was very bullish last night...do you get the same impression?
Given your considered/measured posts, would value your thoughts...
Hi letsbecool,
Sorry, but could'nt disagree more vis a vie bods handling of Accustem.
Just to be given the opportunity was awesome and any and every company experiences missed timescales due to unforeseen circumstances and just weight of volume of their substantial pipeline.
Please let me know if your the most perfect person in all your sharedealing / business / daily work-life, monetary dealing and general all-round perfect person. lols
If you are then set up your on Pharma and get it to 165p with a pipeline of world class products, targetting world class markets with a world class Bod in a world class/changing sector.
vbw