Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The battle of the accountants......I can almost see Thor's hammer...lol
Bought in here yesterday!
GL and ATB
Not closed minded at all. Of course early stage companies offer opportunities that are not captured by a pure P&L approach. But that doesn't mean ebitda is a useful measure, for all the reasons Munger/Buffett set out.
Every initial in ITDA is a true cost, and in the case of the first two a cash cost as well. Excluding depn/amortisation may give some useful measure (tho not imv a normally appropriate one) but excluding costs of debt is ridiculous. It means that borrowings to finance capex are excluded, while that same capex financed by lease is not, rendering it useless as a measure across different companies with differing finance strategies.
Both leases (for example) and interest costs are true cash costs of historic capex. Depreciation/amortisation plus interest in most cases represents the same costs as a lease liability of acquiring/using an asset.
I don't want to make this an arcane thread about the finer points of accounting, but my point is that ignoring costs of financing your capex is a device of scoundrels ; you could not use it in a business plan pitched to your bank manager, and eventually, it catches up with you.
Anyway, this is not relevan here. I have no doubts about the integrity of THX accounting, business plan, or cashflow, and look forward to the next update.
A lot is happening here. But what is Segun up to with Douta?
The PFS has been moved back from Q4/23 to Q1/24 to give more time for a new MRE to be issued in Q1 ahead of the PFS where the resource of 1.78 million oz gold is expected to be expanded to 2 million oz at a higher grade, with more converted from inferred to indicated category and for development of the mining process with the Chinese in conjunction with the metalurgy work in Perth.
Exploration here has so far been limited but with further exploration and drilling along a 15 km mineralised corredor the resource can be expanded further.
Douta is not a straight forward development due to the refractory ore element as with the nearby Massawa development (Endeavour).
The cost of building a 100k oz pa mine at Douta will not come cheap. $120 million for Stage 1? It can be done in two stages with the oxide ore CIL processing first followed by a BIOX. Stage 1 could be financed 50% by a Finance Co and the balance through cash flow this year and next. Commence 18 month build early 2025 with completion mid 2026.
Randgold/Barrick did not develop the much higher grade and larger Massawa deposit for 10 years before selling out for $380 million in 2020.
Then there is the salutory lesson of the failed development of the adjacent Makabingui deposit in 2020 by Bassari Resources.
When the PFS comes out it is sure to trigger interest from predators and in particular from Endeavour to add to their regional supply of ore to their huge operation at nearby Sabodala. The economics for the low grade ore could be improved for Endeavour by installing a crusher and ore sorter at Douta before trucking to Sabodala.
What price would Endeavour offer for Douta? $100 million?
(B2B Gold sold its 1.1 million oz, 2.3 gm/t Toega resource in Burkina Faso to West African Resource in 2021 for $45 million).
Segun says he is not looking to dilute shareholders with future development of Douta or the recent Nigerian lithium deposits but is open to partners/JV's. He has strong links to the Chinese who were contracted for construction of Segilola and are involved with the process design for Douta.
So it's likely the ball will kick off with the PFS in a couple of months time. Future development of a second mine for Thor in Senegal? Or a sale providing funds for gold and lithium mines in Nigeria where Thor is the first mover with plenty of attractive prospects.
None of this is in the sp at a near low of 14.25p since listing on AIM in 2021.
THX Mkt Cap is £93.5 million at sp of 14.25p.
Dual listed. Also on the TSXV (THX) with sp CA$0.23.
Major holdings: Segun Family 15%. Segun 4.5%.
Dual listed. Also on the TSXV (THX) with sp CA$0.23.
Comparison: Shanta 100k oz pa. Mkt Cap £136 million at 13p.
Target Price: 30p - Canaccord Genuity 15/1/24.
If significant lithium deposits are discovered and developed Thor Ex could become a billion dollar gold and lithium producer.
Jan 15, 2024 . Thor Explorations Ltd president and CEO Segun Lawson speaks to Thomas Warner from Proactive after the West Africa focused gold producer released a production update for 2023 and fresh guidance for 2024.
Lawson provides a comprehensive update on the company's performance and plans, saying that Thor Explorations produced 21,798 ounces of gold in Q4 2023, contributing to a total annual production of nearly 85,000 ounces. Despite facing challenges, the company successfully completed significant projects, including the west wall expansion, which improved the mine's efficiency and reduced costs.
Lawson emphasises the completion of capital expenditure projects that enhanced recovery rates, and he highlighted the absence of major CapEx obligations for 2024. This year, the company's focus will shift to operating efficiently and expanding exploration activities in Nigeria. Thor Explorations reported success in exploration last year, discovering high-grade gold intersections in the southern prospects area near the mine.
Additionally, Lawson touches on the potential of lithium exploration. While he says recent drill results haven't warranted a standalone press release, the company is planning another drilling campaign to explore the value of lithium for shareholders.
Looking ahead to 2024, Lawson expresses optimism, citing strong gold prices and the company's guidance of producing 95 -100,000 ounces at a cost of around $1,200 per ounce. The company also anticipates completing a preliminary feasibility study for its Douta Project in Senegal, delayed due to metallurgy testing.
You're being closed minded that's why and ignoring the difference between growth investing and value investing. It's perfectly fine to be focused on the latter but claiming that only cold hard profit is what matters neglects the fact that there's multibillion, even trillion dollar companies that didn't turn a profit for many years, sometimes decades and ebitda was one of the main metrics used to track their progress.
We will have to disagree. i feel very comfortable doing so with Buffet & Munger on my side!
EBITDA *is* relevant for high growth companies but less so for goldies that require large yearly sustaining capex just to stand still.
For the likes of THX yes probably best to focus on the actual cash generation which is very positive, as was today’s update. Could we’ll see the share price catch a head of steam over the coming weeks.
Forget ebitda
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-explains-called-popular-earnings-measure-horror-squared-164228068.html
Co should have had a strong year and made good net profit AFTER ITDA. That's what matters. Along with cashflow and debt repayment. Both should look good when we get a proper trading update in the form of interim finals or whatever.
Segun is delivering, and the co is due a rerate, But ffs ignore ebitda.
Thor's EV/EBITDA is currently about 1, possibly less, for the current year.
Add to that the fact that Thor is pretty much debt free now, makes this a fantastic investment opportunity IMO.
There are also a couple of very exciting prospects in development, which Segun has stated are to be internally funded by the company, and which would make Thor a multi-jurisdiction and multi-asset company.
Also, Segun and his family have a lot of skin in the game here, which is always good to see, especially with recent share purchases above the current share price indicating confidence going forward.
Aug 18, 2023 LONDON. Thor Explorations, Segun Lawson, CEO, webinar with Q&A at the end. 27 mins.
A month or so prior to this, Segun announces he has invested around £1 million of his own money in Thor for 6.6 million shares taking his holding to 4.45 per cent of the company.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaObGydxSNU
Using the mean of the figures provided being 97,500 Oz at an AISC of $1150 this delivers an EBITDA of $88,140,000 versus a current market cap of £87.91m.
The High grade shallow drill results a huge positive around Segilola
PFS still due Q1 which is a huge catalysts
Looks like the seller here was just clueless retail luckily... today's rns should reassure
That should get the price moving off the lows
Can’t stay at 13/14p after that. Going to be a proper cash cow this year and the grades are extremely impressive from Segilola which will help extend mine life
Fantastic news
This is an absolute steal down here and although has been a frustrating hold, I feel it will come good and start heading in the right direction soon enough.
Q3 report. Gold recovered for the quarter was 19,104 ounces and 62,811 ounces for the year so far.
The Group maintained its production guidance of 85,000oz for the year. So is expecting 22,200 oz or better in Q4. This should be doable given the switch away from mining waste in the southern section of the mine and the following:
Several improvement projects including the leach tanks circuit upgrade, conversion of the elution circuit as well as an electrowinning upgrade, which have been completed post the end of the period, have positioned the Group to improve on its processing recovery and efficiency which will reduce the gold in circuit through the remainder of 2023 and into Q1 2024.
3 reposts and 5 likes says it all, across a whole trading day... Need more people following/interested in buying THX, to support the price, when we have the odd early/original holder (large volume) offloading. This happens a number of times a year. Need big holdings broken up into fewer shares, in many more hands and a more dynamic market. Woefully undervalued but need the Segilola extension update ASAP. We're almost halfway through original mine life now. Segun has massive skin in the game and is hurting far more than any of us, I'm sure. But I suspect everyone is hurting. There will be a mic drop moment but it would be nice to see more build-up to it (some quick wins ahead of the other mines operating, which will be a while).
Interesting drops this week coincided in the AI discovery of a lithium alternative (simplistically). But this is a gold miner now and for a good while to come. Gold price is good, let's also get after an AISC reduction.
Sorry - haven't been on the board, participating, recently! Still haven't sold a share...
Https://x.com/DavidBurton1971/status/1745364248195117164?s=20
Segun always comes across well. I think some of the recent price weakness is due to one seller that should be now near on fumes.
Hopefully we get a nice update soon which will reassure holders on all fronts.
One thing for sure here is SP woefully oversold. Gold price over $2k...
Under Outlook
"· Completion of the Douta resource update in Q4 2023"
Also agree with Sirius, numerous interviews outlining updates before end of 2023 also
"try reading the Q3 update", etc.
Well, yes. Do.
"We are therefore postponing ...an updated resource for Douta ......targeting Q1 2024"
On Oyo, yes, " we...expect to receive further results in Q4 2023", tho given THX is in the hands of assayers I'm quite happy to grant a few days slack given the otherwise good track record here.
I certainly dont think there is anything that has been previously promised that is seriously overdue. Tho I would agree that some indication of mine life extension plan would be very welcome.
Sirius
Me too.
Douta and Oyo updates will be welcome, but are icing on the cake. We need a good Q4 ops + finance update, which I'm confident we'll get ; Segun has delivered this project to plan almost flawlessly to date.
I do agree that a mine life extension plan is needed soon, tho afaik no date has been given for that so it cannot be said to be overdue.
Listen to the numerous interviews around the Resourcing Tomorrow 2023 conf at the end of Nov. Segilola drill results, Douta drill results and Li drill results all signposted before end of 2023 yet nothing to date. Hopefully not holding back on poor results. That said I’m more interested in the production update and delivering in line with guidance
The main item the Market needs to see is extension of the mine life in Nigeria, this IMO should be the main focus of the company
Try reading the last Quarterly update. Douta drill results and resource upgrade was due end of Q4 for starters