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Tbh I'm baffled as to why this isn't at ATH..
The mine has operated exactly as planned, proving Segun's ability tobe execute. Doubts us looking good, lithium in the background, mine life ext all in the plans, close to net cash already.
With gold @ $2150 cash will be flying in the door, so could be double and it would still look cheap to me.
THX will be sitting on more cash than current Mcap at these gold prices...
Market can't ignore the cashflow forever ;) tick tock
Segun in 2011 acquired shell company, TSXV listed, Thor Explorations and became CEO at the age of 32. The business had a mine site in Senegal and not much else. Fast forward to today when Thor has a 100k oz pa mine at Segilola in Nigeria that started construction n 2020 and is now in its 3rd year of production. In a few months it will be fully paid for, debt free and throwing off mega cash. LIsting on AIM came in June 2021 as mine construction was nearing completion.
The Senegal project is still there but exploration has proved up nearly 2 million oz gold so far with an MRE due now and a PFS due by end of this month. And there is likely to be much more resource when exploration over a 30 km trend comes to bear. Recently there has been acquisition of large acreage gold and lithium leases in SW Nigeria with promising early drill results.
Share price. C$0.22, 13.5p. For the last 7 years the sp has been in the range of c.14c to 40c but is recently off a low of 17c. The sp is around the lows for the past 3 years and half of the highs of 40c. Almost no reward for so much company development and transformed finances.
JWB, with respect, that's nonsense.
Simple projection of current/past cashflow, + THX's history of meeting forecasts, make that simple and reliable.
Jurisdiction didn't worry buyers when the price was 20p, and it wont at 12p. Mine life will be addressed, it's all there in the initial plan if you read it, and net cash at EoL makes any finance, if it were to be needed, easy.
Directors mb well paid, but that doesn't mean they have loadsa cash to spare to buy shares.
I welcome criticism, but imv yours is misplaced.
Great Post.
Appears JWBellamy can't read as it's all explained. 3 year+ mine life at $100m per year net profit it's not rocket science. And that's assuming gold price stays here... all likelihood we could be looking at a much higher gold price and therefore cash build over 3 years
Who said net cash would be like that, that’s all hopes and dreams?
Why have the directors not been buying huge amounts of stock if the shares are so cheap
This is not going anywhere because market is very worried about mine life and the geography it is in
Thor has virtually no net debt and what little they have is due to be paid done in the coming quarter.
After that, Thor will be generating vast amounts of cash to use in whatever way it sees fit; some $100m of net cash at the current gold price, possibly more. In fact it was, proportionately, forecast to be the most cash accretive gold miner in a table of 13 global peer gold miners produced by Canaccord at the end of January, spinning off more cash than its market cap each year.
They are a 100,000 ounce producer with a relatively low ASIC (~$1,100), which could even be lower than guidance due to reaching higher grade ore recently.
Thor will be able to fund its various projects in Nigeria, Senegal and perhaps Burkina Faso, with little or no dilution to shareholders, of which Segun and his family are major ones.
As for mine life, they are uncovering new deposits around Segilola, have a number of high-grade targets below the open pit area, none of which are in the current reserves or resources estimates and all of which are still open at depth below the currently drilled depth. I fully expect Segilola mine life to be significantly extended shortly.
As for Douta, it is extremely prospective over the entire 32km corridor, about half of which is effectively unexplored. It is surrounded by other multi-million ounce discoveries/mines and I fully expect the sum total of Thor's resources there to be measured in the same category. IMO, 2 million ounces will be just for starters.
If you like Lithium, which some on here don't, Thor has found some of the highest grades out there, hence very profitable to mine relative to their global peers, in due course. Lithium demand is forecast to way outstrip supply over the coming decade, which if true will significantly increase Lithium prices.
All of this is available today for much less than nothing!
As for Nigeria specifically, rather than Africa generally, it's a great place to be a miner - just read The Mining Act of Nigeria - and it has first mover advantage in a big and largely underexplored country with vast mineral resources.
Also, Thor is a very respected company to work for with a happy and loyal workforce, having just won the Mining Indaba 2024 Responsible Resourcing Award for Labour award.
In all likelihood they'll be able to extend Segilola mine life
And that's ignoring their circa 2million ounce Douta asset...
Meanwhile gold price continues to smash all time highs..
I dont think you understand that net cash at the end of the existing mine life is 3x the current Mcap
But they may not be able to extend and the company is still net debt. If they can’t extend this will drop 40% overnight. There’s a reason why shares go down and my bet is insiders know exactly why
More risky than two years ago when THX spiked to 19.5p, Segilola and mining in Nigeria was unproven and net debt was $40m? Vs today at 13.5p with a couple of years of successful operations under their belt, improved guidance for this year, gold at all time highs and THX about to go net cash positive?
There's 3 years left and they're drilling Q2 to extend the minelife further. Even with 3 years it's over $300m net cash build at these prices.
Nigeria is obviously a risk but not anymore than many African countries in reality. They've been operating remarkably well and the devaluation of the local currency is actually great for THX as it will mean AISC comes in even lower than forecasts.
You have barely any mine life left and will need as much cash as possible to have any chance of surviving.
Building new mines can costs hundreds of millions
The risks here also involve Nigeria. Think it’s time holders were also more clear on the significant risks
At some point THX has to break higher
$2100 and not a single comment on here. Strange times.
Friday 1/3/24. Gold $2082. +$42. There was a spike to $2150 on 4th December which was thought to be lift off but disappointment set in and has largely lasted until the past few days. The general public lost patience and has been liquidating gold ETF's and selling off miners. BUT ...... but ...... it looks like the 3 month consolidation of gold in the range mainly $2000 to $2050 is now over. We will see what happens in the coming week.
Alistair Macleod: There is massive demand from Asia, from Comex traders standing for delivery and from Central Banks. When gold goes over $2100 the market will start to take notice and realise they have no exposure, at the same time the market is very expensive, leading to a sell off in tech with gold and the miners being bought. But the public so far continues to take no notice. We might look back and see that this past week is the point at which it all turned.
Super Bull Market in Gold About to Start - Charles Nenner. The wait for this gold bull market is about over. “The dollar’s buying power could possibly be cut in half. . . . That’s the reason why we expect a super bull market in gold and silver when the cycle bottoms. He cautions there may be one last down turn before gold moves into this new super cycle proper.
Having just read the broker note here's a few observations for those looking in here.
Target price 30p based on 97500 ounces in 2024 at an average gold price of $2020/oz and AISC of $1144/oz
A further 5p to be added to the valuation per year of mine life extension (1-2 years expected) announced March/April (with some production uplift included alongside for 2025 and 2026).
Other catalysts include Douta PFS which is expected this month (Q1), lithium drilling results expected later this year, Q1 results showing solid start to the year in April and a shift from net debt to net cash.
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All looking good as gold threatens to smash through all time highs.
Id of done the same if i wasnt as petty as I am... given the court news today ill hold off until there's an ultimatum offer or they walk away from SHG. GL all and will instead for now take a small holding with my salary for now to build slowly!
With net debt rapidly heading towards net cash and with ~97.5k oz at $1150 aisc THX is set to post ebitda close to today's mcap in 2024. Yes mine life at Segilola is only three years but with mine life extension expected there in the following quarters and Douta PFS results with us shortly it's hard to see this as anything as wildly undervalued currently. Positive to see the directors hold over 12% too...
Ps I tried to hold on to my Shanta shares but in the end got greedy and sold and bought THX with it instead over the past couple of weeks.
Thanks both for this, looking like an oversold and undervalued company then will risks well and truly priced in.. Can see the massive upside on project opportunities too and will gold looking to be going one way im confident most miners can get favourable debt or cashflows to fund these upcoming in plan projects. Looks like THX will be home to a large chunk of my cash providing the outcome of Shanta Golds vote announcement tomorrow!
We are due an updated MRE for Douta any day now. Q1/24 is current guidance. This is expected to increase both the resource to c. 2 million oz gold and the average grade.
This is to be followed by the PFS for Douta delayed from Q4/23 to Q1/24 with only a month now left in Q1. With this information in the public domain there will be visibility of the valuation of the asset and development issues and costs. Segun thinks Thor can build a mine there without dilution of shareholders but Endeavour's huge mine, Sabodala, is just trucking distance away from Douta, and other predators incl possibly the Chinese will no doubt take a close interest when this PFS is released.
At the moment Douta is valued at zero in the THX share price which gives the AISC $1150, 100k oz producing mine at Segilola a derisive valuation. THX sp has recently been smashed even lower by a further 20% by a large seller wanting out at any price over a 3 day period but the shares should start to bounce back on news or before.
For me it was the move to lithium as gold can be pretty much valued within certain parameters, but lithium, whilst it is in demand, is exposed to new battery technology materials.
What is causing the current drag on SP, is it the same partial story as Endeavour with the instability of western african countries and the participation of Russia trying to gain influence or am i missing something. Looking elsewhere to park my Shanta shares and THX looks like a good investment if im fully capturing the risk that is, price currently easily does if its just that laid out.
Whilst we wait for news this is positive to see: https://twitter.com/ThorExpl_THX/status/1762438408985563306