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Does anyone know when the next trading update is please.
...on 11th Oct we will get the Q4 Production numbers and Q4 prices and probably the latest cash figure then on 30th Nov the FY Accounts.
Mike, how do you think they will be, of course considerably better than going forward, as we say TGI chromium, for how much would be losing without it, I remain amazed SLP share price has gone higher than ours
Sotolo, the Q3 production numbers were pretty disappointing and I am expecting Q4 to be the same so that we will fall short on the already reduced targets for the FY of PGM's 158,000 to 167,000 ozs (I expect 153,000) and chrome 1.58-1.67 million tonnes (I expect 1.55m) with ROM production the lowest since 2015, I hope I am wrong.
Despite this I still expect FY PBT $130m, PAT $99m, attributable to shareholders $95m, dividend for H2 2.25-2.5 C/share.
I am open to alternative opinions.
The risk factors at SLP are considerably lower.
Karo will not be fully operational for over 18 months but if the PGM basket does not make a significant recovery then some big decisions will have to be made.
Thanks Mike
Madness trying to compare us with SLP. Different business models. We've been investing far more in growing NAV, and diversifying the business, which has been reducing our risk. My view is that we're incredibly undervalued. I'm very happy holding and increasing at these levels.
Rylidan, I agree it is "madness trying to compare us with SLP " but ultimately as private investors isn't that what we are trying to do-compare one potential investment with a myriad of others using whatever tools and knowledge/chatter that we can get hold of.
I respect your views and opinion which are very similar to mine but despite the agreed incredible undervaluation I want to see some questions answered on 11th Oct and particularly 30th Nov before increasing at these levels.
What questions are those Mike pls, so we can prepare and be proactive about answering them
Hi Tharisa-the main concern is the financial viability of Karo at the current PGM prices and what happens if they don’t recover next year when Karo comes into production-can the production costs per ounce be reduced and can assurance be given that part of the surpluses arising on the SA operation not being used to pay down the loans on a non economical viable Karo project -hence reducing returns available to shareholder
Hi Ilja, thanks for your request.
it will be good to see the latest Karo Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement (which I accept will be in the FY accounts on 30th Nov) to see if the actual production numbers expect to reach (or even beat) the 6E ROM of 3.0 grams/tonne used to calculate the annual production of 190,000 PGM ozs/year and good to know where the resulting concentrates will be sold,(will Karo sell the concentrates in Zim or S Africa) or upgrade into matte or higher.
At current prices what is the expected Karo cash cost, IF the PGM basket remains below say $1300/oz are their any plans to reduce/stop production.
Salene Chrome was moth-balled after not being allowed to export the chrome concentrates out of Zim, with higher chrome prices is there any news to change this.
Hopefully more news on the benefication at Tharisa and confirmation that ROM production in FY 2024 should be back above 5 million tonnes.
I appreciate your help and accept that you might not be able to help with some of these questions.
Hi M&M, yes I've seen various posters worrying about 2 years into the future. Businesses wouldn't expand if they worried about their market collapsing. Personally I see it something to worry about in 2025, you just can't tell what this changeable world will bring. Are you suggesting that the company should stop the Karo project? That would be insane. If they need to subsidise Karo or suspend Production there in 2025, so be it. Surely that is a decision for the future.
Anyway, I'm always interested in the company viewpoint.
Anyway, I've been invested here for almost 4 years and very pleased with the progress the management have made at that time. The chrome plant was an excellent diversification and a great use of profit. Diversifying outside RSA is also something I also very much approve of. The forward thinking and proactive management is something I really like. Nice to see the company taking an active interest on this board as well. Thanks Tharisa.
Rylidan, you are right that alot can and will change by 2025. Judgements have to be made and it would be useful to hear what contingency plans have been made. If we find out that the ROM 6e will actually be 3.3 rather than 3.0 g/t then that increases PGM production by 10% for effectively the same cost (or vice versa if the 6E t
....sorry I pressed the send button by mistake!
...vice versa if the 6E will be lower. Suggestions have been made that Karo could reduce costs in other ways.
All told it would be good to hear what contingencies the company has in place.
I agree with you that up to now the management have done fantastically well but now they face their biggest challenge IF the Karo PGM basket price does not recover. For example IF the Tharisa mine continues to make say $100m/year but Karo is losing $25m+/year (it will lose money for the first year or so until the volumes are reached) then what is the plan.
Hi Rylidan -agree it would be madness to stop the Karo project and the PGM basket price could be totally different as Karo production is ramped up -did asking if anything can be done to make the project more viable at the current PGM prices
Mike, the PGM basket is still falling, I now make it $1330 for Tharisa mine and $1230 for Karo. Luckily chromium is still holding up. However if this PGM fall continues and we get down nearer $1000 will chromium profits at current $300 price (a big IF) be enough to make up for PGM losses? Also, although we are a completely different company, SLP is also a PGM miner and seems to me far more reliant on PGM price, yet holds up better? It is cash positive and has an AISC probably now around $1000 v a basket around $1350. In as far as you are able can you guess an AISC for Tharisa chromium and PGM's with chromium and pgm's at current prices and what will Karo's be?
Sotolo, you are like a broken record. Can you post something new please? We all know you're invested elsewhere.
PGM prices are getting to the point where some producers are becoming uneconomical and new projects being deferred -something must give as supplies become less.
At least we have chrome and longterm demand for platinium looks strong.
Also probably some concern that Karo will be completed within budget-the HZM RNS stating that mine construction costs will be at least 35% more than anticipated could have well spooked investors elsewhere -guess we will have an indication in a few days
Rylidan. I have over 500,000 THS shares, why it so interests me, and not surprising I am worried. I never understand why anyone questioning where and why a share is going, and seeking opinions and numbers, is assumed to bother without any skin in the game. I hugely value Mike, Moneyman etc views, please just read my posts if they annoy you and you don’t want to but please keep this historically very civil board courteous. Thanks
Yes, very disappointing to see pt below $900, pd below $1300 and au near a 7 month low, fortunately ir is creeping up again.
I agree with Moneyman that this will eventually lead to lower PGM production but there will be a time lag before this really bites.
Keep the faith, with chrome at $300/tonne and the Tharisa PGM basket at $1330 for FY 2024 I roughly calculate that over 70% of the Tharisa mine revenue will come from chrome and PBT will be $140m, on this basis the rough AISC for the Tharisa mine is just $330/PGM oz. At the current Karo PGM basket price , I calculate the Karo project will certainly be loss making, although I would rather not speculate on the exact number until we see more information in the FY 2023 accounts and as we have said before the PGM price could come good in time.
At these prices how about a few million used to buy back some shares-must be some spare cash despite the “Karo anchor around the neck”
Can any savings be made at Karo and can the cash cost per PGM ounze be reduced.?
Alternatively with a still very low pe and a long length supply of chrome and Pgm a cheeky takeover bid could emerge-who wouldn’t walk away with £1.50 per share now
Who's going to pay £1.50 a share?!!!
Interesting view that Karo would be loss making at current PGM basket price level. Can anyone verify this please?
I would suggest raising the dividend, even a little, to show confidence in the outcome - don't buy back stock and further kill liquidity.
Jammyc -the Chinese of a Middle East Wealth Fund looking to secure a long term income stream and secure supplies of chrome and. PGM
Simply look at the balance sheet at 31/3/2023 -the balance sheet total after deducting all liabilities and minority interest is $603 million dollars -divide this by 1.2 and the number of shares you get £1.67 per share-also the P/E ratio of about 5 probably equates to this price.
How much would it cost to build the Tharisa SA operation today-probably more than$600 million ?
The other alternative is a management buyout.
The unknown factor is of course Karo