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At $95 it's getting a bit marginal. Don't forget the 15-20% discount for TGA coals. Brings it down to $75 to $80. That's close to TGA's FOB costs. I'm looking to get back in too, but am waiting for coal prices to rise.
Fascinated to learn what $95 per ton Richard Bay thermal coal means for the financial statements/economics of TGA. Possibly too early to jump back into this company, well-managed and transparent though she seems to be.
Richards Bay Bulk Terminal conveyor repairs remove 400 coal trucks from roads
Very high volume today in the first hour. Something going on
As realistic as the length of a piece of string. Buy your shares and it's a lucky dip.
Musing on the likely dividend to be announced end March and paid in May.
The last 4 divis per share actually paid after WHtax into my account (nearest penny) have been 73p, 240p, 143p and most recently 33p. So, officially “all over the place” The October divi dropped from 240 to 33, so an 86% drop. If we apply that to last May 143p we arrive at 20p this May, or 53p for year, or 8.5% yield (after WHT) at today’s price.
Is that realistic, or way off?
atb
All most Double the buyers v sellers and still sp remains the same
Port volume seems to flowing better shame the price of coal is down
Certainly a bad start to the new year share price wise.
Concerns about the future of coal are a ‘Western issue’ look at the reality of usage across the world and it’s a different picture entirely
Power and transport issues clearly remain a concern but you’ve got to think SA will want to sort these asap
My thoughts are three fold:
1. Beyond anything other than the very short term, the thing that really matters is the future balance of supply and demand. At some stage (presumably), global demand for coal will eventually start to fall. But that is irrelevant in isolation. What matters is the balance of supply and demand, and given the near total absence of global investment in new coal supply, I expect supply to fall faster than demand. On that basis, I think TGA and friends have a very rosy future.
2. The current price of coal is artificially supressed by the overhang of excess stock accumulation in the mad scramble a year ago, and also a Chinese economy far weaker than officially reported. The unwinding of these anomalies will be positive.
3. At every turn, the Directors of TGA impress with their communication and clarity of purpose. This is a very well run company.
If it is hard to function without it, buy some now! I think it will be still a giver of decent returns in the years to come.
I started buying near the end of 2021 when the freebies from AAL did well, bumped it up greatly over 2022. Yes, buying at peak too, but it has still generated profit more than any other share I have held. Sold a lot near the start of 2023 but it is still ranked halfway up my holdings by value. Good for some years yet, I think.
TGA changed my life in 2022. Got in around £1.50-£2.50 (thanks, Baron Investments) and rode the wave. Ever since this time I've enjoyed expensive German lagers in the pubs of Kilburn, North London rather than Carling Black Label. That's how life-changing this stock was. Exited a few months ago.
But it's hard to function without TGA in my life. It's like packing a child off to university. You long for them to return and brighten up your dull existence. Which begs the question - what do we think will happen to coal in general and TGA specifically in 2024?
PE ratio seems to be around the 2x mark and cash balances are a healthy $500m (approximately). Big unknown is the coal price and to a lesser extent the state of the pesky South African railway system.
Thoughts? Packet of pork scratchings or equivalent for the most incisive comment.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/15/coal-use-hits-record-high-2023-net-zero-push/
Just as a matter of observation, I think these guys do a really quite superb job on investor relations.
There is absolutely no ambiguity, evasiveness or bs.
A very high quality company, and every reason to be optimistic onwards.
For me, this is a regular buy and a very long term hold.
Very good update. Good cash position and net profits. Hopefully this will go on a good run
Not a bad result, better then I was expecting
Thungela will release a CFO Pre-Close Statement on 13 December 2023.
Unfortunately coal has dropped draging the price down cop28 hasn't help and always impacts these types of shares, but with cop28 coming to a end and fossil fuels still very in the mix I'm hopeful of a bonce after the results
I think you spoke too soon. It was up 3% and now down 1%.
A trading statement usually made around this time o of year.
I managed to get out for 6p profit 625 or so, but only on the basis of wanting to buy back. Current price is 612.6 and I'm waiting for re-entry signal. For the moment, it's small leveraged positions for fun really.
You all see Newcastle coal up by 6% to 148 almost ? Shame Richards bay coal only moved by 1% to 109.. need it to catch up. Very low for this time of year