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A very sensible post Pop. Looking at the wider correlation between sp and coal price then the share price seems about right at the moment, maybe even a bit higher. I expect there is already a built in premium for a generous dividend, although I expect the share price to rise once the results / dividend is announced (although not by the full dividend amount as I suspect that some of that is already built into the current price). I have steadily built up my shares in this company and like many others regret not selling at the peak and then stupidly selling a substantial amount on the falls (schoolboy error,). However, I will be holding my shares for the next few years. The share price will undoubtedly fall significantly once it goes ex dividend, but the 3 to 5 year prognosis still looks very promising. I expect dividends to remain very generous in the near future.
agree with both posts below. I see the share price maintaining this level throughout its life. the divis. and the share buybacks will well compensate the shareholders. please where possible ,ensure the divis. are ringfenced in isa's as you'll be 40% better off, no brainer really. To trade this share is just casino gambling and not investing, as i told my neighbour who'll be reading this. GLA
Anyone have an idea when the full results will be announced? In all honestly I’ll probably sale before this date. The share price will fall in comparison to the dividend amount.
March 22, and personally I think holding the shares is a no brainer
Price of coal up again….tga down
Having previously given a long post about how the share price is tracking coal in the long term, it is still very, very frustrating to have all the indicators change to very positive for the share in the short term .............. and yet it just stays put! Since Thungela is a single-product company, it is expected to be more volatile and dependent on limited, specific factors, but at the moment, it is not responding this way. Even China Thermal Coal futures went up by about 10% yesterday. You would at least expect the share price to bounce up, short-term, on such news! I'm still concerned about the momentum issue .......... although the share is tracking the coal price long-term, it should still be bumped up (or down) based on a transient impetus of good (or bad) indicators. As of today, ALL the coal futures are up, India has just been reported as going out for more overseas coal tenders to build stock, Indonesia is still contemplating restrictions on export, BHP (in Australia) has just reported that Omicron and La Nina have restricted coal production and will in the near future ............. and Thungela stays flat! If this doesn't cause Thungela to surge in price, then what will? If someone had come to you two weeks ago and asked you what your best case scenario would be for Thungela ........ I'd be tempted to say it is close to the current situation, not so?
My main fear is that the share price is not banking the good news, so that when all the transient upward pressures on the coal price are alleviated, the coal prices will drop and so will the share price ........ from current levels.
On current form, with this apparent lethargy in the share price, the only ways I see the share price increasing significantly are if the coal price starts running out of control (to levels equal to, or above, the peak in October) and/or Thungela comes out with some statement on expected earnings and dividends that far exceeds market expectations (and I mean something really positive, like 2-3 times the previously-predicted dividends or somesuch).
Or maybe, Thungela will skyrocket when the coal prices plummet in the Spring. Who knows? :) :)
pop31 I agree with what you say, though depending on your investing strategy, how much importance does short term share price have? If you are in for the long haul a low price now, allows you to accumulate more share that will pay big dividends in the foreseeable future.
Once the market has seen some more detailed and longer term results, it should more closely reflect what many consider a fairer valuation. Big swings up and down in the mean time, encourages traders and causes volatility that is only of benefit to short term investing.
Normally the share price would fall be the same amount, or thereabouts, as the dividend on payment. But normally, one knows in advance exactly what the dividend will be! Because no one is sure what they will pay out, the sp is in limbo trying to figure out where it should sit. The company was only born 9 months ago. Its still finding its fair value level, which for me is still too low. On top of that, you had millions of free shares handed to AAL holders. No one knows if they've all sat on them, reducing liquidity, or bought a zillion more like I did. 200% up and counting...
My view is it will slowly tick upwards towards the 22nd March. After that depends on the news. Let's see. Its not really a cricket pitch is it?
GS
RedBull, you are absolutely sensible and correct. I agree. I was in this mindset in 2019 when I had a very successful and sensible strategy of getting regular dividends and increasing my portfolio value (I added about 20% in 2019 on dividends alone). Then along came the pandemic in March 2020 and smashed my portfolio by 40% within about 3 days ......... and turned me into an investor who want the 40% back again NOW!! :D :D
But removing my emotional element, I think Thungela has great prospects in the long term!!
As TGA is such a newly listed stock, without a dividend history, the financial sites are still showing the (historic) dividend yield as 0.0%. Even here on LSE! Once the dividends begin, all those Anglo holders who got their “free” TGA allocation will suddenly discover that they’re holding stock paying out a decent yield and the market generally should wake up to TGA’s potential as an income stock. At the moment, anyone doing a search in stock listings looking for yield will miss this completely. That’s why deeper research can bring greater rewards, so long as the payouts pan out as expected. atb.
A fair price could be around £7 but given it’s producing unfashionable coal the price may settle lower than that around 5.50 to 6.0 in 2022. But who knows?
I think this share has very considerable upside potential and, given the cash generation, it has FA downside potential.
just closed up 1.13% on the JSE.
Added to my position today, feels like there's a large disconnect now, with current coal prices and upcoming results/dividend announcement.
Time will tell.
Just hoping with the disconnect that the pressure cooker is building in the share price ready for a 10% jump upwards.
Coal down, TGA up :)
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LVG22/overview
dropped like a stone in the last 15 mins. on the JSE. Down 3.59%.
Ping ?
Ping who?
Interesting read:
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/coal-the-outcast-about-to-make-a-comeback/