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Berenberg. Barings...ask Nick Leeson.
LOL the 2 x 10k buys was me :-). Planning at least 100k shares and am scaling in. Another 60k shares to go.
In todays markets SWG is performing well and I work in the same space, business is robust
A profitable company in a growth phase......At a rock bottom valuation......worth 380p according to Barings bank......and for a lot of very good reasons........
A company in the right place at the right time.......At a bargain price.......this is worth the 380p valuation put on by Barings bank.....
130p .....such a bargain......broker ....Barings bank have a 380p valuation...........plenty of upside......no downside as this is profitable ....as well as being a growth story.......
Strange you keep hanging around here though, Pinnochio....
Assume you want SWG shares cheaper than 131p - what's your target buy price?
Buying opportunity for you Pinnochio.
Just a weak market at the moment with few private investors.
Market makers love dropping the bid hard on a few sells to scare others into selling.
4.7% down on 70,390 shares traded of which at least 20,000 are buys (2 x 10,000 blocks) as bigger investors who understand the potential here, soak up the smaller, weaker hand PIs who sell and can't see beyond the next 5 mins.
Zebbo.I agree.This is undervalued for a growth company......With great prospects.....The market will eventually realise.....
What it is telling me is, pick up more stock on down days. Company is doing great, try reading the results "fully"
Nice summary on the respected Richard Holway's Techmarketview web site:
Https://www.techmarketview.com/ukhotviews/archive/2022/07/29/shearwater-grows-double-digits
"Friday 29 July 2022
Shearwater grows double digits
ShearwaterUK HQ’ed cybersecurity provider Shearwater Group plc (AIM: SWG), announced double digit growth for the year ended 31 March 2022, with strong demand for advisory work, penetration testing and managed security services
Revenue was up 13% organically to a Group record of £35.9m (FY21: £31.8m). Adjusted EBITDA was up 19% to £4.4m (FY21: £3.7m) with margin maintained at 12%. Adjusted profit before tax was up 24% to £3.0m (FY21: £2.4m). Shearwater ended the year in a strong financial position with zero debt and a year-end net cash balance of £5.6m.
The Software division saw revenue fall 23% due to the development and release of new product functionality taking slightly longer than expected. The Services division however saw revenue jump 19% yoy, with its Pentest business securing a significant win with a global technology business, supplying vulnerability assessment and penetration testing services. In March 2022, group company Brookcourt Solutions won two significant contracts; the first a three-year endpoint solution contract with a global financial organisation, worth US$4.1m. This was shortly followed by a win with a leading telecommunications and media company for the monitoring of the organisation's new 5G network totalling an initial £12.9m.
Average new customer spend was up 43% yoy with 186 new customer wins in the period (FY21: 155). 20 new clients were introduced to Group companies through cross-selling, up 54% year-on-year and fuelling future revenue opportunities. 64% of the client base has long-standing relationships of more than 3 years.
FY23 Q1 trading is in line with management expectations with good visibility of repeat revenue opportunities and high levels of enquiries. SecurEnvoy (which it acquired in 2017) has been further developing its cloud Identity and Access Management platform and the business expects strong growth in this area. The company also established a Mergers & Acquisitions Committee and continues to search and review potential opportunities with a clear strategic fit."
Pinnochio = for someone who said "he was out" of SWG in Nov 2021, you seem to post a lot of messages on this board.
I note all your messages are doomy, gloomy and slate the management at every opportunity - even when big contracts have been won.
I can only assume you constantly trade this and the gloomy messages are your way of trying to drive the share price down to pick up cheap shares; then sell into good news taking a profit. Rinse and repeat.
I suspect the next move will be significantly up, with bigger buyers sucking up small holders who are happy to take less than £1.40 for shares - that could easily be worth £2.00 with a bit of media coverage in say Investors Chronicle.
You could be kicking yourself for not holding on, when the share price kicks on.
Berenberg have today reiterated their Buy and 380p price target:
Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Shearwater_Group-18554/broker-views
Cenkos's update today says Buy and sees 200p as fair value.
They've left their forecasts for this year unchanged at 13.6p EPS and £4.8m EBITDA, with the cash pile rising to £6.9m at the year end.
They summarise:
"Shearwater Group Plc More beats The prescient demand for cyber security protection is shown in these results, with double-digit organic revenue and EBITDA growth. Major contracts wins are reinforcing revenue visibility and the re-platforming of the Software division bodes well for new sales once completed.
? FY22A results. Adjusted EBITDA of £4.4m is 5% ahead of that flagged in April’s FY trading update, and 16% ahead of the estimate we had at the close of the fiscal year. Organic growth amounted to +13% YoY to £35.9m in revenue terms, +19% at the adjusted EBITDA level. Adjusted EBITDA margins rose 60bp YoY to 12.3%. Net cash ended the year at £5.6m (-7% YoY), just shy of our £6m forecast, after a large working capital unwind versus prior year. This is a good set of results."
"? Visibility. A bunching of new contract wins announced in Q4A amounting to £25m contributed to last year’s performance but part will help revenue visibility going forward. This currently stands at £14m, or 37% of this year’s forecast.
? Forecasts unchanged. We are leaving our adj. EBITDA forecast of £4.8m (+9% YoY) in FY23E unchanged and introduce FY24E forecast of £5.0m (+4% YoY). We note that prior years have started out similarly cautiously and been upgraded as the year progressed. A pipeline of software deals now that functionality has been broadened and modernised could be the catalyst for a similar pattern. We continue to see fair value at 200p+, which on FY24E forecasts would be c8x adjusted EV/EBITDA. Buy."
The results are to 31st March are ahead of even the upgraded expectations.
EBITDA in particular is £4.4m compared to the previously flagged £4.2m, and adjusted PBT is similarly well ahead at £3m (compared to Progressive's forecast £2.6m).
Net cash of £5.6m is as stated, and SWG are on the hunt for acquisitions.
Above all, the outlook is very rosy, with Q1 having been strong, high repeatable revenues and an increasing number of new clients.
With 14.1p EPS forecast for this year SWG are a cybersecurity company barely trading on a double-digit P/E.....
Did not now this was once a mining company. Had to google it to check it!
From 2017: (when the shares were 4p)
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/176662/shearwater-group-the-former-aurum-mining-reveals-reverse-takeover-of-authentication-software-firm-securenvoy-176662.html
"It is interesting to note that the second largest holder in the group’s equity is Secarma Group Ltd, the Manchester-based cybersecurity consultancy.
Year End Trading Update – “the potential for our business is evident”
In late April the group issued its Year End Trading Update and provided revenue guidance for the financial year ended 31 March 2022.
Following a strong second half of trading, the group stated that it expected to report revenue up some 12% to over £35.5m (£31.8m).
It guided that adjusted EBITDA could be in excess of £4.2m (£3.7m).
The revenue growth came from a mix of strong renewals from long term clients, in addition to a number of significant new contract wins in the group’s Services division.
With the Update the group’s CEO Phil Higgins stated that:
“I am delighted to report a strong performance for the group, with both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth anticipated to be ahead of expectations. Our long-standing clients have continued to extend their business with us, a testament to the strength of our offering, and we have also won work with new customers looking to fortify their organisational resilience in today’s uncertain world.
We have returned to a revenue growth trajectory, underpinned by a strong financial position, and we remain excited for what the future holds.”
While Chairman David Williams said that:
“It is pleasing to see group wide efforts paying off with the delivery of another set of market-beating numbers. The potential for our business is evident.”
Broker’s View – 200p ‘fair value’
Simon Strong, analyst at Cenkos Securities, rated the group’s shares as a Buy, with a ‘fair value’ of 200p a share.
His estimate for the last year was £35.5m sales and an adjusted EBITDA of £4.2m (£3.7m) giving an adjusted earnings per share figure of 11.8p (10.4p).
Looking into the current year his figures are for £37.4m revenues and an EBITDA of £4.8m, worth 13.7p in earnings.
Analysts Ian Robertson and Gareth Evans at Progressive Equity Research look for adjusted EBITDA earnings of 11.9p for last year and 14.1p for this year.
My View – short-term opportunity
I would believe that both companies will be revisiting their current year estimates after this week’s finals statement.
My first Profile on the group was at the start of Covid-19, a period that subsequently saw the shares fall away before the start of the Ukraine war hit them back even further, with 70p its lowest at the start of March.
The way that the shares have responded to the End Year Update is a pointer to further good news boosting them even higher.
It will take some motoring to get anywhere near my first Target Price, but my most recent aim should be achieved within days.
I see them reacting well to this Friday’s good news and subsequent analyst upgrades.
The shares closed at 139p on Friday night, which I consider offers short-term punters a quick opportunity."
Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/shearwater-group-final-results-due-this-friday-could-well-beat-expectations-yet-again/?mc_cid=3939e7e541&mc_eid=db9f9bbaf2
"Shearwater Group – final results due this Friday could well beat expectations yet again
The question is could we strike a small vein of gold with this group?
This company was formerly known as Aurum Mining, but in 2017 changed its name to the Shearwater Group (LON:SWG).
Later this week it will be reporting its final results for the year to end March and the hope is that the cyber security group will be beating market expectations yet again.
The Business
The company’s full service offering spans identity and access management and data security, cybersecurity solutions and managed security services, as well as security governance, risk and compliance.
Through a focused ‘buy-to-build’ approach, the group has a growth strategy that is focused upon building a scalable group offering an entire spectrum of cyber security and managed security needs.
It serves customers in some 46 countries across the globe, across a broad spectrum of industries.
Operation Segments
The group operates through two main segments – Software (13.6% of group sales) and Services (86.4% of group sales) – it has five primary businesses, Brookcourt Solutions, GeoLang, Pentest, SecurEnvoy and Xcina Consulting.
Brookcourt Solutions delivers cyber security, network monitoring technologies and managed security services to help secure and protect an organisation’s critical infrastructure.
GeoLang delivers data discovery, data extraction and data loss prevention solutions, services and technologies to discover, classify and protect sensitive data and information in the cloud and on-premise.
Pentest provides research-led penetration testing, red teaming, and offensive security consultancy services designed to uncover IT security vulnerabilities, support ongoing information security efforts, and to increase the digital resilience of client organisations.
SecurEnvoy provide trusted identity and access management solutions to millions of users in real-time. Across five continents, its customers benefit from rapid deployments that scale through instant provision, simplicity of use and ease of management.
Xcina Consulting provides business and technology risk assurance and advisory services in support of organisational resilience.
On sales per region basis the UK makes up some 73.7% of sales, Europe 21.6%, North America 3.7% and the Rest of the World just 1%.
The Equity
There are 23.82m shares in issue.
The larger holders include Schroder Investment Management (13.2%), Secarma Group (12.3%), Phil Higgins, CEO, (9.31%), D Stacey (8.83%), David Williams, Chmn, (6.80%), Killik & Co (3.98%), S Watts (3.75%), SpreadEx (1.11%), Robin Southwell, NExec, (0.65%) and Stephen Ball, NExec, (0.50%)."
Marcus Willett is a class presenter with a great track record unlike the other 'muppets' Higgins and McFadden - neither of whom could hold an audience's attention. Willett will be worth listening to. He knows the sector second to none.
Bought in at 138.44p - a price which has been marked as a sell earlier today.
Results are next Friday 29th July, with a presentation the next Wednesday (so Thaiger's post was wrong - never trust independent info on a bulletin board without a link!).
Looking forward to the results and outlook as we know they'll be good, but the InvestorMeet presentation should be really interesting given thisimpressive extract from today's RNS:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/shearwater-SWG/share-news/Shearwater-Group-PLC-Notice-of-Results-and-Present/88649703
"Group CEO, Phil Higgins and CFO, Paul McFadden will be joined by Marcus Willett CB OBE, a member of the Group's Advisory Panel, who will provide an update on the cyber security market. Marcus was formerly the Deputy Head of GCHQ and its first Cyber Director. He has held posts across the wider UK intelligence and security community and is currently the Senior Advisor for Cyber at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a world-leading authority on global security, political risk and military conflict. "
...just maybe, this slow starter could end up a big winner. I have had faith and continued to build a holding here as the SP hit lows. It is now one of my largest holdings and seems to gradually be getting established in its important field. I am optimistic. Please though, don't take my word for it and DYOR.
Thaiger has posted elsewhere that results will be next Tuesday 26th July, though I can't see this in an RNS or on their web site. Perhaps he's contacted them directly. They're certainly arriving very soon indeed.
We already know the results will be ahead of expectations, with EBITDA at least £4.2m plus a £5.6m cash pile and a strong outlook. There's every reason to be positive here.
Progressive Research's forecast of 14.1p EPS for the current year to March'23 is likely to be increased after the results, so SWG will be well and truly on a single-digit P/E - and even less if you adjust for the cash which is approaching 20% of the £33m m/cap.
...to end of year results.
Looking strong here, with more buying coming in at the full 140p offer price.
We already know from the trading update that results will be ahead of expectations, the balance sheet is strong and the outlook is positive.
And this is for a cyber-security business on a single-digit P/E....
Cheers - found it (had to edit it a little to fit in the word limit):
"Shearwater – resilience
Shearwater is a UK-based corporate resilience business offering cyber security software (own IP) and services operating across 46 countries with many large businesses (including tier 1 banks) as clients. Revenues total around £35mn, with historic (adjusted) earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of a little over £4mn forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20 per cent to March 2025, reflecting strong markets, cross-selling opportunities and a planned phase of new investment.
The software side has a typical structure, with high margins (>75 per cent gross ), selling through a two-tier distribution model, meaning low sales and distribution costs in-house. It owns the intellectual property (IP) for its two software brands SecurEnvoy (zero trust identity and access management) and GeoLang (tools that discover, classify and protect sensitive data and information across a range of storage locations and mechanisms). There is high recurring revenue here (>80 per cent) and >60 per cent of customers have contracts of three years or more.
...Its focus is the remaining quarter of the $40bn (£32.6bn)-plus security-as-a-service market not already covered (privileged access, cloud access and identity governance), a sector overall forecast to grow at a c16 per cent CAGR. Shearwater has £10mn in cash and untapped debt facilities to facilitate this, and buying well (management is happy to buy early-stage businesses) could bump baseline profits by as much as 50 per cent.
The services arm is larger by revenue (four to five times larger than software), but with lower margins (still a healthy 30 per cent gross) makes a similar level of Ebitda, giving the business a healthy balance. In services, a lot of revenue comes from selling third-party products and IP (hardware and software) in solution sets for core cyber security functions and monitoring plus consulting fees and the group’s in-house penetration testing – trusted hacking to show network vulnerabilities.
Good underlying market-driven growth augmented by anticipated investment mean that the 20 per cent growth being forecast here is tangible. Yet, the rating does not square with the prospects (specific and industry) – Shearwater’s enterprise value (EV)/sales ratio is just 0.65, the EV/Ebitda is less than 5 times and the price/earnings (PE) ratio is just 8.8 times year one. This is closer to the valuation you might expect for a mature cyclical rather than a high-growth industry. Darktrace’s equivalent figures are 4.8, 37 and >300, respectively.
Valuing Shearwater on sensible but still cautious ratios (1.8x sales, 12x Ebitda or a PE of 18) indicates a fair value as high as 250p (currently 118p)....."