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Expect to see massive jump.
Should see announcement later
Unfortunately cargo movements are restricted at Southend to only 10% of the total amount of movements by the local councils; because of the decimation of passenger flights due Covid, the cargo flight allocation is largely used up by the 'Amazon' cargo flights. Extra cargo flights have been going everywhere BUT Southend as a result.
One would hope that SEN management had been seeking a derogation (based on the unique situation and the greater national requirements) from this requirement from the Councils, but I have not seen anything in the local press to this end.
I'm wondering if STOB will finally have some good fortune. With the current border restrictions, many companies will turn to air-freight to ship their goods. Hopefully STOB will move quickly to capitalise.
Birddog - I feel I play with a straight bat here, I tend to work with info that is reported and out there in the public domain.
I'm certainly looking towards 2021 for STOB with eyes wide open ! That said I wonder if on occasions, my belief in the long term potential at Southend and the long term future for the Energy Division, can get wrapped up in peoples minds, with the financials at STOB, and how one may wish to play it on any given day.
I've always traded it, and built up free top slice shares, It's not somewhere I've wished to park long term funds, so yes I hold shares though probably a lot less than many here.
Talking of playing with a straight bat I recall posting on here back at the time of the Connect consortium, that STOB had managed to de risk it's balance sheet when passing Stobart Air across to Connect. I am pretty sure I flagged the potential risk first on here when like a "rubber ball" Stoabrt AIr, bounced back to STOB, earlier this year. So in effect my warning of the potential issue was out there, should anyone have wished to read, my musing.
To my mind one can remain balanced, whilst holding a "glass half full" outlook on the two chief projects here. Whether STOB will be the ultimate owner of the projects 5, 10, 20 years down the line, is of course a separate issue.
I'm awaiting your cogent appraisal of the yr end 2020 Southend Airport Accounts, when they become available.
In all honesty, without you Truth, offering your insight here I probably wouldn't be posting myself, though I expect Moni will reappear to provide some" Xmas cheer" should the sp fall to sub 20p lol
All the best mate.
G
Hi Birddog - You've mentioned before that you have long given up any hope of recovering your investment in STOB.
To date, I can't recall any of your 41 posts being anything than "glass half empty". I'm not sure of your average, though I suspect you'd need a 5 bag from here to break even.
May I ask, very politely, in view of all the info you kindly provide to the debate, mainly to the downside, on both the financials at Southend and the lease issues with Stobart Air, what piqued your interest for you to take a position here ?
G
Truth - I'm seeing our latest discussions on Carlisle Airport, as something to pass the time whilst we await any news on a potential sale of Stobart Air, which I see as a key hurdle, for the BOD to overcome. With Stobart Air sold then STOB has a fighting chance to get the Energy Division up to a level that will allow a decent sale price. With Stobart Air hanging around the drain on cashflow may well result in a need for perhaps an extra £50m of funding raising - at 20p a share we'd be looking at what another 250M shares sloshing around. More if a placing came at sub 20p.
Turning back to Carlisle, STOB have developed Eden Park, and receive the rents atm.
I'm guessing you will feel that the latest Govt funding is not money well spent though - what is it - £8m is perhaps better spent though than some Govt gifts that have been uncovered this year !!
https://cumbriacrack.com/2020/11/24/carlisle-lake-district-airport-to-receive-up-to-8-million-grant-to-support-recovery-after-coronavirus/
I'll take any factual local knowledge you may feel is useful to share. Opinions I welcome too - provided they are presented as such, my friend.
Btw do you have any up to date figures of the occupancy levels at Eden Park ?
G
"Closer to home, the company has proven beyond reasonable doubt that it has no idea how to make money from aviation but world class at providing guarantees which have little value to support!I"
TF - Succinctly put.
Southend Airport had made a modest profit every year prior to Stobart buying it. Since then, it has lost staggering amounts of money, with each year that passes, the YoY losses get bigger and bigger and defy any business logic. Carlisle Airport - no chance of that airport ever making a positive return. Stobart Air - loss making airline with no customers beyond 2022, debt ridden and with huge liabilities hanging over it like the sword of Damocles waiting to fall. Even the new incumbent of the Aer Lingus franchise has steered away from it. It's toxic.
Gerry often quotes the narrative that the BOD put out on the various RNS's, but the numbers never back up the projections or predictions. With or without Covid this business was in deep trouble with a flawed business plan. The financial year pre covid they lost a staggering £150m from a revenue turn over of £170m. That's ridiculous. Unless they are able to drastically turn it around and change the model then it is doomed. Covid will undoubtedly be blamed for it's demise, which of course will suit the narrative the BOD have peddled, but in reality the only effect of Covid on this business is to have accelerated the inevitable running out of other peoples cash.
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Albert Einstein
Truth - I'm going to drag you back to your statement that you posted here, before the weekend.
"No passenger flights from Carlisle in our lifetime"
You've now confirmed that this is your view based on your brain and what your calculator tells you.
As I've mentioned to you, your own personal views will likely as not have no material effect on what actually happens at Carlisle over the next 20 - 25 years.
The fact remains that funding in the way of grants has been provided, and this suggests to me the local authorities, do want to see passenger flights. ( that is the extend of my knowledge here ).
I'm just struggling to understand how you can be so sure this will not happen, despite the funding provided that demonstrates support.
So sure you are that you posted on this bb that "I have some experience in the industry and I am quite happy to tell you Carlisle airport will not carry passenger aircraft in our lifetime"
I'm taking it you have no insider info on this, I'm guessing your personal view may have lead you to over egg your view.
As to what the future holds for STOB ( and that's deffo up for cogent discussion lol ), I'd suggest that we should allow matters to pan out and see what the future holds for Carlisle over the coming decades my friend.
Have a great eve.
G
Hi Truth - I'm guessing you felt the the £4.75m Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership grant used to improve the runway and terminal. was not money well spent.
Why are the "powers that be" in your neck of the woods, prepared to throw, money at Carlisle Airport, sure STOB weren't complaining.
Its funny thing - in this world many projects that someone personally feels are not worth the time effort and money, often receive support and financial backing.
Not a great issue one way or another for STOB, but I suspect, that should we return to normal times, the "powers that be" will still want to see passenger flights in and out of Carlisle. Perhaps you should send them your calcs. from your trusty calculater lol.
Still no news on the Stobart Air sale.
gla
G
It seems the parking deal at Southend airport for the EasyJet planes is over. They have moved out all but 4, with them going this week.
Re last pax from cax, was on the 23rd March to Southend, see: https://www.loganair.co.uk/our-story/latest-news/2020/flights-from-carlisle-lake-district-airport-suspended.
ATC was a problem last time, but perhaps technology moving on would allow a solution for a remote Tower to be implemented, provided from Southend or Teesside.
Truth - do you have any factual statements from those that will make the long term decisions on passenger flights in and out of Carlisle, that the previously held desire has been reversed.
I mean something out there in the public domain, stating that the airport and / or the authorities have abandoned ongoing future passenger flight plans and perhaps that all slots have been cancelled, both now in the present and indeed in the future.
If they have I'll be honest to say I missed that piece of news.
Some facts or statements already out there in the public domain that you feel you can re post here for the few among us that look in here can read on the subject.
Or is your statement based on your own personal opinion.
Could you clarify things, if you would that would be very helpful.
Take care mate - have a great weekend.
G
Truth how well do you think STOB did out of the warehousing developments, on the adjacent land, think we may have discussed this ( perhaps more times than we'd both care to admit over the last 18 months since you first posted here in Aug 2019 ).
Truth when was the last Loganair passenger flight out of Carlisle- wasn't it earlier this year ?
I'd continue to suggest to you that the "powers that be" up in your neck of the woods, have an aspiration for passenger flights, ( perhaps subsidised ).
No matter how illogical it is to you, and perhaps it is, i'd suggest that your definitive statement, may be a little premature.
A lifetime depends on ones age I guess. I'm hoping for another 25 - 30 years, if i'm lucky ( very lucky ).
So are you sticking your neck out to say deffo never another passenger flightin or out of Carlisle between now and say 2045 - 2050 ?
gla
G
Have you got
It has been a running joke up here that Carlisle airport would ever have any half decent passenger flights. I recall the local News and Star paper gushing over there intentions relating to the introduction of flights to the Med and lots of American tourists arriving to visit the Lakes. Locals round here struggled not to fall over with the hilarity of it all. It’s a warehousing facility that just happens to have an airfield next to it. They struggled big time to recruit ATC’s prior to opening. Not sure where they are in this respect now.
When the name change from Stobart Group comes in the New Year sometime (my guess would be by the end-January), how do people feel this might effect the share price from these present levels?
Well said Gerry. we all need realistic optimism
Truth - Your statement regarding Carlisle Airport that you feel there is "no chance of passenger flights in our lifetime " is a little glass half empty.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I felt it only fair for balance to mention to the few that read this bb, that loganair had recommenced limited passenger flights back in July 2019. These were grounded like most flights by Covid, earlier this year.
Atm there are no immediate plans to reinstate flights i agree.
I accept you do live under a permanent "rain cloud" regarding anything Carlisle Airport, related, and whilst I wouldn't comment on initial profitability of routes in place from July last year, it does seem that the powers that be in your area do have a long term desire for passenger flights from your local Airport.
With that in mind, however much you disagree with the logic I suspect that sometime in the future these will recommence. I have no idea as to timeframes.
Still no news on the Stobart Air sale.
gla
G
It would be good if Amazon cargo flights were accommodated at Carlisle, it would be a way of keeping the airport open & functional. At the moment it is notified closed until 31st January 2021. whether there will be any resumption of pax. flights at any time remains to be seen.
Southend Terminal re-opens on the 18th Dec, so must have a flight or 2 from then, and also be able to take diversions again from then
Truth - saw details of the 7,000 sq metre amazon Longtown centre, in the summer.
Am assuming from your post this morning that the Amazon warehousing jobs being advertised at Carlisle Airport relate to the Longtown delivery centre.
https://www.totaljobs.com/jobs/amazon-warehouse-operative/in-carlisle-airport
Good to see Amazon setting up there.
https://www.itv.com/news/border/2020-02-03/online-giant-amazon-to-open-warehouse-in-cumbria
Thames Gateway - Teeside International Airport -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teesside_International_Airport
gla
G
I would think that Teesside would be more on the cards for Amazon than Carlisle (which is effectively still mothballed for commercial aviatiouse).. Plenty of development room at Teesside with better road connections.
Are Stobart still involved with the management of Teesside?
BD - agree with you on Amazon and covid, in terms of the increase in it's business.
Shall watch progress here with interest.
Key short term for Stob is to lose Stobart Air.
G
I'm not sure about Carlisle. Maybe that could work regionally?
Totally agree about Amazon - they keep their cards very close to their chest. All I know is that they are bringing in a load of bigger planes into Europe and they won't be able to land these at either Carlisle or Southend. They have a hub at East Midlands but also want one in the south. Time will tell. Covid has been very good for Amazon!
Hi BD - everywhere else being up to quota, is that why Amazon have been linked to an expansion into Carlisle Airport ?
Not sure if that has legs or was just on the rumour roundabout.
All a bit clock and dagger, regarding Amazon deals little real info out there on the long term agreement at Southend.
G
Hi Gerry - indeed it should be viewed glass half full - they already had the cargo biz which is great. Re Amazon decision - Whilst they (Amazon) build the network infrastructure in Europe they needed a stop gap in the South East for some short haul routes. At the time (2019) everywhere else was up to quota. Ultimately they will need a much bigger facility that can accommodate the larger trans continental planes in order to have the effective global network and connectivity required. The UK is a huge market for Amazon and well beyond the scope of Southend airport beyond the short term.
BD