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I registered on ADFVN as 'yardbird2', but I don't seem to be able to post without coughing up a membership. Not going to pay to post, sorry. Happy to chat here.
I think your figures are good SGD. I agree it's perhaps better to under play and under estimate and we will just have to wait and see. I know the perlite we have is of an incredibly high quality and am a tad surprised we haven't heard much but I also think that it'll come. For sure, regardless, everybody is going to make money from these levels. That's a cert.
This is just pozzolan and omitting perlite for now. If you take the presentation (possibly older upload now, I can't remember and will have to double check) and assume starting with 200ktpa taking 5dollars PT as an averaged discounted NAV it should give us a net of 1million dollars a year. Cash flow positive is the main thing for year 1. I think it could be more but in my humble opinion it's a decent starting figure and not 'over eggd' Most likely a royalty similar to Kirkland will be worked out? So ok, go for a low base of 4dollars to us based on a 50/50 JV.
This is all dependant of course on the CMRC and as of yet we don't know intricate details.
Kirkland were anticipating 500ktpa which isn't unreasonable but possibly a year or two down the line?
I would be surprised if we don't hear anything about the perlite in addition shortly.
Currently we are sitting around a 7ml market cap so a valuation with this NAV projected forward on the figures alone based on a 27 year mine life should take us to a minimum of a 40- 50mil MC? Again the pozzolan will most probably be ramped up and the perlite on top so I feel I'm underestimating slightly. With the excitement of a deal, hype and volume I would be very surprised if the share price doesn't initially exceed a penny.
It was a calculation I did back in August. It was an extrapolation from the Boral/Kirkland deal, with the idea that many of the unknowns should then cancel out. A few notes:
1. It was for CS only, ignoring the rest of the SRES assets
2. It was assuming a buyout (possibly with royalty element) of CS, whereas we now know it will more likely be a joint venture. For the buyout, I guessed the CRMC would pay 25% of the "true" (ie DCF) value - slightly better than the Kirkland deal. A JV will probably give higher ultimate value, but this may take longer to be realised.
3. I assumed a pozzolan selling price of $110, it should be a bit more by now.
4. Not everyone agreed with it :-)
The main unknown is 'what are the CRMC prepared to pay', but I assume they're going to use the same kind of discounted cashflow model (with discount rate reflecting production and price risks much like the deal SG analysed) to value our project as have been used in other mine deals?
Main thing that looks like it could change would be gate price of our product, but assume we can project based on inflation trends for similar minerals?
Why such a specific target considering unknowns?
"I hope you judge shares better than people Sheldrake. Mistaken identity I'm afraid."
See, that's *exactly* what I'd expect Aviator to reply with ;)
All good with me. I looked up SG37's reasoning on target price being 0.6p per share, seems thorough. Do people think anything has changed since then that would up the price?
I hope you judge shares better than people Sheldrake. Mistaken identity I'm afraid. By the looks of it Aviator is having a hissy fit too over on advfn. Actually I follow him on advfn too and he is quite the character.
I didn't mean to upset anybody so my apologies and yes you're correct that I was referring to Sunrise. I shall keep to the "Queen's" English from here on.
I’ve sobered up and still can’t comprehend this bb, i need a stiff drink now.. cheers
Tiochaidh Ár Lá means 'our day will come'. In this context it obviously refers to the eventual return of real value to shareholders in SRES, maybe better words could have been chosen but please lets not make this board about politics unless they have direct relevance to our investments.
Yes, Claire's writing style does seem *very* simillar to Aviators. No problem with it as long as he/she focusses on talking about SRES in this thread. Posts some insightful stuff on ADFVN about it, but also has a tendency to massively derail when bickering about personal stuff or sidetracking about unrelated investments. If you're aviator, lets have good, insightful on-topic aviator please.
Dip66, no!!!!
@ClaireMartin - you're not actually that Aviator fella are you - very similar language and posting style and an obvious dislike for Rodster......
I understand Aviator has been banned from this site a few times but certainly been back under new accounts before and no issue myself with him/you but the sneaky posting under another assumed identity in 2020 to wind Rodster/Sam up was a tad bit childish.
I'm pretty sure you are Aviator :-))
Let's get back to Sres. Exciting times ahead here. SGD, thanks for the links. I don't think Boral/Kirkland will pose any problems. There is plenty to go around and many companies that will be interested. I suspect we may hear further news of the deal in the not too distant.
Agreed but I will defend myself when called out for being something I am not. I was talking about Sres before that accusation.
If you never lived there it's very hard to understand Fulmar. Good Friday agreement best thing that ever happened. Peace, stability and sanity. I am proud of my Irish heritage and to speak the native language also. Dual passport holder too. Language is one of the strong topics still. Many speak Gael Talk but that does NOT make them or me IRA supporters of violence so I take this accusation very seriously. That's like branding all Muslims terrorists. Totally wrong. Only the small minority and supporters of extremism are.
https://www.lse.co.uk/terms-and-conditions.html
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You agree that you will:
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not post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the Forum or the Forum's topic.
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& yes I do know I'm now technically violating that ;-)
All I can see Claire is someone with an inability to "let it go". Disgusting things were done on both sides. Moving on is how peace is achieved-you will choke on your bile.
Excise me but no, it's not the only time it is used. It's used in every day speak and a common phrase. This shows a severe lack of scruples! You've shown your colours. Don't troop them where they aren't wanted in foreign lands you clearly know NOTHING about.
Claire -what would have been the problem with saying "I'm sorry if you were offended,it wasn't meant that way" ? I'm a plastic paddy half and half with relatives who served in NI and one married an IRA girl-I wouldn't dream of conducting political arguments or insults on a bb. Apologise and both move on.
You knew damn well what it means and the only time it’s used is to chant support for the provos so don’t give me your ****
Ps It is a very common phrase with the Irish and means "Our day will come" pertaining to the CS project! Nothing more nothing less, but go and get yourself an education on some of the atrocities of the Great British Empire and others! You don't even have the broadmindedness or intelligence to argue my point! Typical little Army Barmy upstart! Seen them in both sides! x
Bull you know exactly what you said and what it meant
Well keep your army barmy antics off the board when I was having a chat to Dubliner in his native language.
You clearly don’t get that your quote is unacceptable . Yes I was actually trained as professional soldier and Ive served in more than one theatre throughout . Now go and have a quiet word with yourself and think about your quote
Not at all but that's why they have power sharing now. Paisley and Maguiness sat down and sorted it didn't they. Wars are sad and breed hatred which you clearly have ingrained or beaten into you Had you been born into the other side your stance would be different.