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Back of a *** packet calc: 130mmboe 2P reserves - 381m shares outstanding. Assume a 2P barrel is worth $15 (it's just a stab in the dark).
Gets you to $5.2 per share, or c.£4
Norma - you don't seem to get it. The concern of many shareholders is that the SP will be suppressed either deliberately otherwise, whilst Mercuria is sitting on >30% of the shares in issue for the duration of the 'lock in' period of 18 months, whilst it decides if it wants to take out other shareholders in a bid that values the company at a lot less than it would be valued if it didn't have this hanging over its head. Mercuria could block rival bids, leaving holders to either accept what M has to offer, or end up as a tiny minority in a company with no listing, thereby trapping "non-complaints" forever.
OK - it won't happen.
Wish I shared your confidence.
dyor
deliberately OR otherwise
Promise you I do get it, dick. I was being somewhat tongue-in-cheek.
I do not have any evidence or sound reason to suggest that the scenario you highlight will unfold. It might or might not. However, I will go off what is published/known plus my own perspective on what’s ahead. That is no more or less valid than anybody else’s view.
I could equally say that you “don’t seem to get it”, but that would be me passing judgement on you when I have no right nor reason to do so. Your opinion is totally valid as it’s yours.
I am staying optimistic until I have reason to change that stance. As I have said in recent months, I have no idea what will happen in the next 18 minutes never mind 18 months…
All the best to you.
.....gawd........fat fingers again......................."non-compliants"
......no offence was intended, NS............
Held 450k of these at one time, but saw increasing greed of directors as a warning sign and I really didn't like the TW deal - badly explained, poorly constructed and ill-thought through. Left me feeling "something ain't right somewhere" - I've never liked the idea of swimming with sharks. I'm down to 65k shares now - hardly worth bothering about in my book. I've switched most of my holding over to JOG when there have been buying opportunities. Risky I know, but we only come this way once...........
No wonder Circle went bust.............
Clueless PR
imo/dyor
No offence taken at all, dick. I welcome and appreciate your take on this and, indeed, those of others that are of sound and rational mind. None of us know everything or think of every scenario.
I have a number of private investments, but no public to privates. I would indeed be out if M tendered for public shares at ‘fair’ value or not. I have a decent holding here, but no emotional attachment and if it provides good upside in the next 12-18 months will be out.
Norma - tounge in cheek but they do touch nerves.
The increase in SQZ reserves was greater than TWD. If they were plugged though the before and after metric the Board provided they would have made the deal less attractive [those bent metrics that exclude debt and cash consideration).
They further expose the deal for how awfull it was and the FY results will add more evidence.
And that's without Dicks point on Mecuria
Our Board should have commissioned and released this prior to the proposal. Now we know why they did not.
I’m just going to stay quiet now, Banbury! I am in a tiny minority here in trying to ‘see the other side’. Better to watch the story unfold over time and that will truly reveal as to whether the deal was poor or not. Next week’s results are only one chapter in the story, not the whole. I’m interested to see what emerges, but it’s the beginning rather than the ending. I look forward to seeing the reactions on here, but will tie my hands to prevent narrating further.
All the best.
Banbury boy. Increase in Serica reserves was bigger on an absolute basis, but smaller on a percentage basis. Serica increasing by ~20%, TW increasing by ~32%. Might say something about future reserves additions from both portfolios or nothing at all haha. Also improves the price Serica paid for TW assets as on a $/boe basis they are now getting more boe's for the money.
Thanks Norma
For me even with WT this was worth £3.50 - £4 standalone
Today was good news overall and should be a start in getting this moving.
I hope you are right.
Point taken Shakey but absolute is the way of reading across to deal in my opinion.
Although with the upward revision in Serica's reserves, could it also be said that Serica undervalued their own equity EVEN FURTHER by diluting as much as they did. Swings and roundabouts and the share price is STILL in the dumps. That's what really matters.
NormaStits
I appreciate your opinions and you politeness in the face of a lot of opposition but I don’t get it for the reasons laid out by dickupham.
Also add in the appalling way the BOD have handled this, dismissing out of hand a far better offer from Kistos while actively pursuing this share price destroying deal.
To add to dickupham points, the BOD have proved they are are self serving and incompetent. Who can trust them not to make more of these terrible deals, we can only hope we do not end up with more of Mercuria’s overpriced assets and debt for SQZ cash. Also the lies about returning cash to shareholders are not helping.
Given the lack of trust in the board and a controlling shareholder it is not surprising the market has marked down, it is not what assets this company has it is the fact they are controlled by a useless BOD and a predatory controlling investor, the only thing that will help us is some decent dividends, after all that is all that is left as a decent takeover (or just the threat of one to raise the share price) along with the chance to deploy the cash given away outside of the UK tax grab is now a pipe dream.
I think the instructional investors who voted for this deal should be held to account by their own shareholder but as always this elite group of people get away scot free as they close ranks and protect themselves.
Thank you, Terry. The vow of silence is about to take effect so will engage further in due course. I can say a lot about ‘institutional’ investors, and how it works, as I am one. It is not as you seem to perceive it, but that’s another time.
Now zip it Norma!
I think we need to stop looking back on the wonderful Kistos offer with rose tinted glasses. A lot of things have changed since then, not least the WFT and gas price. The whole sector has been impacted, not just SQZ.
Looking ahead, I hope the additional reserves, higher production, usable tax losses and further M&A deals will see us back on top again.
Let's see what news the next RNS brings.
NormaStits
Please don’t zip it, always good to hear an alternative view especially from yourself.
DennisThePennis
The Kistos deal as you say is history but not the way the BOD handled it as the BOD are still with us and shows their incompetence and ulterior motives, they are the main reason the for the current abysmal share price performance.
Terry, I agree that the BoD didn't handle it well in terms of comms, and maybe we overpaid a bit for TWD, but in my view SQZ remains undervalued with excellent future prospects. Hopefully the addition of the new board members from Mercuria will be a positive thing, bringing more commercial nous to the BoD. Staying positive and hoping for encouraging numbers in the next market update.