Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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So the Tailwind founders receive their 2nd tranche of free share’s between them 1,438,849. Nice work if you can get it ….
Aimo & dyor
Number of trades are up today & the first day for a while where we have the matching trades reported :
25-Mar-24 16:35:59 184.80 123,000 Sell*. 227.30k O
25-Mar-24 16:35:47 184.80 123,000 Sell* 227.30k O
25-Mar-24 16:35:27 184.80 248,159 Buy* 458.60k. UT
I doubt it the yield is way to high inmv. Personally ten pence for the entire year is my prediction. Inmv we are now starting from scratch as a company in terms of writing off eighty percent of income in taxes..So in other words its where we go from here. Maybe just accumalate cash for the next few years and then take it from there.
Sad really but as a lth i doubt i will see this come to fruition again.
When are the results due here?
And is the dividend expected to be kept at the current level for this year and next year?
IC article 22.02.24
This North Sea energy company is making waves
Investors should take note of this mid-cap's profitable growth strategy
Often when you buy local the trade-off is price. Brits have made their choice for day-to-day shopping, choosing supermarkets over high-street greengrocers. When it comes to oil and gas, however, the local choice is also the cheapest.
Of the UK-listed mid-cap energy companies, Serica Energy (SQZ) is an inexpensive option. The North Sea-focused group sits on a forward enterprise value/Ebitda ratio of less than one times.
Serica returns to shareholders a dividend yield of around 12 per cent. Serica's metrics look so attractive because its share price has fallen by 60 per cent from an August 2022 high of 450p. Even a cash-and-shares deal that doubled production has not been enough to bring shareholders back. The group could be due a rebound, however.
We last put forward Serica as a buy idea in January 2022 in order to hedge against soaring household energy prices. The shares shot up in the months that followed, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but since then the government’s windfall tax, combined with weaker energy prices, has knocked its valuation.
Serica’s relatively low enterprise value (EV)/Ebitda ratio is driven by its high cash profits and small pile of debt. Ebitdax (‘x’ being exploration costs) for 2023 is forecast at £401mn. This is a sizeable drop from 2022 due to lower oil and gas prices, but still represents a cash profit margin of 63 per cent. Broker Stifel thinks this margin will climb to 70 per cent in the current year, implying Ebitdax of £612mn. Peel Hunt analysts Werner Riding and Matthew Cooper remain bullish, however. “Despite lowering our numbers, it is important to state that we believe the business remains in a very strong financial position and is funded for all planned work programmes and shareholder distributions.
Much of the appeal of Serica lies in its low operating costs, although these have climbed a third from $16 (£12.70) per boe in 2022 to around $20 per boe now, according to Peel Hunt forecasts. They are expected to stay around that level in the medium term, however, and margins are already ahead of peers'. Gross profit per barrel (or netback) is around $40/boe for 2023, which Stifel forecasts will rise to $49/boe this year. Analyst at Stifel, sees net cash rising from £81.4mn at the end of 2023 to £449mn two years later
Serica’s portfolio offers balance between energy scenarios, but its short- and medium-term prospects are good, and at this yield and valuation we would buy.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/02/22/this-north-sea-energy-company-is-making-waves/
On this site P/E shows 2.7 % that would be a turn off for many.
Is 5 a good PE ratio?
Very low vs very high PE ratios
It is arguable that a PE of five or less is not a remarkable bargain. While it might look as if the company's prospects are being viewed too negatively, it is not a bad rule of thumb to filter out companies with a PE below this level.
Now 181p.
172p was the low on 4th March 2024 ( 5% lower )
Still category C with broker. ( this not the reason for margin increase this week )
Maybe the category changes are pointers. ( I noted last post the upgrades at same time Gulf Keystone & Marks & Spencer were also down since November 2023 so maybe not )
It was not a good idea staying home and buying more 8th November 2023 for 215p in hindsight.
Copied this from recent poster here .
Which has P/E 4.... 10% div.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ZsEzbw7Rs
SQZ get a mention at 14.35 mins, low risk, cheap metrics, great divi and a longer term view.
Once again .Their stance is is not in my name . HMG are acting against what i stand for . RE supporting mass genocide and funding a non nato country . inmv .
Then they tax serica energy to fund this cr..p
Hopefully the the Donald will become elected and kick ass , You never know the idiots running hmg may soon vanish in woke land together with oik and its war criminal supporters . inmv dyor.
Scum buckets inmho. onmho.No ones elses . i have a a over twenty five badge .
"Personally I'm hoping for a hung parliament...!
Is that literally Mommur !! .. ;-)
Good weekend all.
aimo & dyor
Similar story with my portfolio DTP.
With regard to wft / epl, the weasels have exclusively targeted oil/gas companies in the UK due to the unique position of being unable to pass on costs to joe public, as our product is priced on the international market.
The likes of the Banks, BG/Centrica, BAE, RR etc would simply inflate their costs to compensate shareholders. Unfortunately we cannae do that., whilst billions are accumulated by said companies and others. They don't want BAE turning round and saying their Nuclear Sub is now 10 billion rather than 4 - after all its value is better than keeping the fuel coming?
Personally I'm hoping for a hung parliament.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ZsEzbw7Rs
SQZ get a mention at 14.35 mins, low risk, cheap metrics, great divi and a longer term view.
On oil etc but banks make loads more than most oil are they on wft ?
Some really healthy gains across my whole portfolio in the past couple of days. Except for SQZ as usual.
At the AGM, I'd like to hear what the BoD is doing to address this. Do they have a strategy? How will they respond to Rachel Reeves and her proper windfall tax?
Thank heavens for BAE and RR. Not compensating for my SQZ loss but making it slightly less painful.
The only companies that are now benefiting from the two wars GB are funding seems to be BAE and RR. So why isnt the wft tax being evenly distrubuted between these and North sea producers.
Maybe jefferies during its conference could address this in some way.
For me the only possitive is that i have not invested in a company that supplies arms to make the average citizen in these countries more grotesque by the day. Little Britain were getting there.onmho,dyor
"Add to that Mitch Fleggs in attendance.."
Running-up company expenses and handing out his CV too no doubt !
aimo & dyor
Add to that Mitch Fleggs in attendance:
I look forward to joining colleagues tomorrow for @Jefferies 4th annual Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London #energy #oilandgas
https://x.com/mitchfleggceo/status/1769817467876962444?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg
Latest Serica Energy tweet…
We look forward to joining @Jefferies 4th annual Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London tomorrow; an excellent platform to discuss market trends and opportunities and share insights. #energy
https://x.com/sericaenergyplc/status/1769793728334434489?s=46&t=uz3in5yMdDdYvqnOjeh9vg
Crude 82.900 ⬆️
Brent 87.168 ⬆️
TTF Gas 28.82 ⬆️
UK Gas 74.30 ⬆️
How about picking up a 7% holding for less than £1mill in Longboat Energy. That would shuffle the deck somewhat and add a bit of intrigue.
By our Institutional Investors or Mr and Mrs Hardy, nor I would surmise by any Long Term Holders here. (Myself included)
My last dividend went into Herald Investment Trust thats up around 25% at present and causes me no worries at all - unlike the death nell of EPL that is preventing any new investors into Serica Energy, despite doing all the right things this year on capex.
I still have a substantial holding, (stupid is eh!) and feel their is still a few cards to play to the benefit of the company and sincerely hope that the sp delivers for peops averaging down - the divi's not to be sneezed at. GLA holders
None of them are even worth a cross on paper anymore. Spoilt vote for me. Having said that will vote for an independent if they are worth it at the time.
Absolutely, what everyone outside of the industry fail to recognise is O&G extraction is not like any other industry. Massive upfront cost, high risk and dedicate years of commitment as such all is based upon the economic value over the life of the field. Removal or even reduction of allowance will bring forward CoP and hence substantially reduce tax received by HMG. As we all here know, O&G extraction can not be switched on / off at will, once CapEx is cut / removed, developments put on hold the economic value becomes questionable so you begin death cycle of the NS, investment will simply move overseas never to return. This transition has already begun imo.
All for what, a cross on a piece of paper !!
aimo & dyor
FWIW, Simply Wall St have decent company info, and good visuals across various interesting dimensions such as 'Value', 'Future' etc. But their valuation methodology is really hit and miss, and generally derived from a DCF model without reflection of wider sector and geopolitical factors. Possibly not even aware of nuances of EPL.
An analogous article last week on HBR lambasted realised profit for the previous reporting period, without awareness of EPL impact.