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FWIW, Simply Wall St have decent company info, and good visuals across various interesting dimensions such as 'Value', 'Future' etc. But their valuation methodology is really hit and miss, and generally derived from a DCF model without reflection of wider sector and geopolitical factors. Possibly not even aware of nuances of EPL.
An analogous article last week on HBR lambasted realised profit for the previous reporting period, without awareness of EPL impact.
Jumping Jehosephat, what's going on?
Since when do we do share price increases? This has taken me quite by surprise, and will need to go lie down in a darkened room, and perhaps a strong cup of sweet tea
Thanks NewKOTB, I presume you're referring to MF's departure.
Good point and noted.
Perhaps a new CEO will be better placed to identify opportunities outside NS, though possibly a period of stasis whilst the appointment is found and settles in.
Even in a tight capacity market, I'm unfortunately of the view that Mitch Flegg has the capability to drive this company further into the ground. The Mercuria tie-up is a governance issue for small shareholders insofar as this significant shareholder has written itself an option to buyout shareholders at some point. In the intervening period the price continues to deflate, possibly aided and abetted by this significant shareholder and a SQZ BoD whose focus on shareholder value is not readily discernible.
A poor investment on my part, where my turnaround strategy is little more than 'hope'
As an SWS subscriber, my experience has been that valuations can be really REALLY skewed. Perhaps due to the trailing data they use? There is still lots of valuable stuff on that platform, especially if you can get a cut-price subscription; but I would recommend a bit of caution with the valuations specifically.
My simplistic take was that the platform may be unduly influenced by US-centric views of P/E, whereas the UK market does not support such soaring valuations (the FTSE is approx 10% above where it was in Dec 1999).
*That's not to say I don't hope they're right! :)
This stock looks to be in a bad place. By design or accident Cruddas keeps talking it into the sewer.
Sold a while back on sentiment of thinning revenues in a changing regime market, and lower margins in next 24 months as increased Capex bites without any indication of how those efforts will increase active customer base or total spend per user. Would consider re-entry if price goes to double figures, but a weak conviction play now until Cruddas is brought under control.
I like reading your analyses, which seem well considered. But ultimately it is the price which matters; and sure the market can be irrational but that is the environment we have to operate in.
The last 12 months have seen significant shareholder value destruction, principally the TW/Mercuria tie-up whose net benefits remain elusive (to me at least), then a litany of other 'chunky' issues such as sub-optimal hedging arrangements, unexplainable fierce opposition by the Board and CEO to a merger with Kistos which would have created significant shareholder value (I describe it as unexplainable but I would surmise with reasonable confidence that self-interest was the most likely reason for stonewalling that deal), inability to build a pipeline (excuse the pun) outside the NS, lack of transparency with shareholders and generally poor media relations/comms.
It's not exactly a tight-running swiss watch of a company...but hey ho, we pays our money and takes our chances. FWIW, I have little confidence of a positive transformational change with existing operational and governance arrangements (For transparency I'm a shareholder; small position)
Respectfully, with inflation running at 10.1%, and GDP growth expected to be the lowest amongst the G7 this year and indications by Bailey that the BoE does not have much more runway to raise rates we should expect inflation to stick around for a while. Coupled with a tightening credit regime we are approaching stagflation.
Can you think of a more precarious and testing financial environment outside wartime? The economic mismanagement by the Tories is breathtaking.
That the EPL will be ratcheted further by a misinformed Labour administration is lamentable both for shareholders (me included) and the nation's energy security. But this is minor in comparison to the nepotistic, venal, petty, high-handed, 'bought and paid' administration that is the Tory govt over the last decade. And remember the EPL was a Tory idea, perhaps prompted by Labour 'positioning', but the swingeing levels were set by the Tories. Didn't Labour suggest slightly lower overall windfall tax levels at the time? Anyway, that's water under the bridge now.
The more important point, I think, is that the country is in need of a new govt and new ideas to assess and address current imbalances in social priorities. The voting options are limited and not without some pain whichever route is taken.
SQZ is in an equally parlous state...in fact the mgmt over there are seeking to sell the family silver out from underneath the shareholders in a deal with Tailwind which makes little sense to any commentator or investor.
I would suggest HBR is still better run; though the perpetually unwinding stock price remains a significant cause for concern.
Decent dividends would of course discourage shorters...but it's not like the mgmt aren't aware of the issue and its remedies
On the face of it a Harbour Serica tie up would be a very interesting proposition; but alas Christmas has come and gone.
We must be masochists!
I hold several other energy and basic materials stocks alongside this one and Serica (disclosure: my holdings are relatively small compared to many on here). The funny thing is apart from HBR and SQZ none of the other holdings give any anxiety whatsoever. If anything the concern with things like Rio and Anglo American is they seem to keep going up even as the world is being reduced to rubble (mainly caused by venal politicians of every shade), likewise the oil majors - holding firm within a range since Q1 and spewing out dividends, even whilst oil prices have wavered.
The other funny thing is that the first funny thing is no longer funny after a year of this seesawing and going backwards...we must be mad!
You overlooked the couple of surprises showered upon investors in the last few months, which significantly impact the investment case. Two rapid succession gut punches are generally sufficient for the smiles to wither, at least a bit