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@joel The market has priced the licence at less than 50% probability at this current price.
0p
Understand where you are coming from historically trrime and 5 years ago I would have agreed, the president "the bulldozer" sacked anyone in gov that looked dodgy and chucked several of them in jail over the last few years for just such practices. His #1 priority was to stamp out any corruption in his manifesto 5 years ago & hence the whole Arcacia episode which lead to the sacking and prosecution of ministers.
Just looking at the reasons for no licence as told by the Government and where they are in the delivery process trrime.
1.0 Review of all the contracts in place with licence holder - completed
2.0 Review of the terms of the Production sharing agreements (PSA) now complete and sent to the operators (according to the press)
The PSA terms above being the precursor to also approving the $30 billion LNG project with the Majors.
These were the items cited by the government for not issuing licences to any of the operators. There are other macro items like the power plants about to come on line, the Gov's own domestic gas forecast, the export gas line to Kenya and Uganda and the SADAC high voltage lines to share electricity from Tanzania with the other SADAC member states and of course the positive RNS from Aminex the other week with statements as per below.
"There are positive signs from various media reports that indicate the Government is now settling some long-term outstanding disputes with the international business community. The government utility company Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited ("TANESCO") is reportedly "keen to end the power shortage" and other gas producing companies are preparing to increase their activity to meet the growing power/gas demand."
cperkin, I would suggest more like 50/50!
1% of solo costs 60k. Probably could control the company with 20-30% ownership. So currently control of 25% of Ruvuma license could be pretty cheap.
But it might be free just to demand $10m from solo for 2020 and gain the license if they can't pay...
£3m stake in H1 + some cash and listing is probably most of the market cap. I would have rather had that 3m in cash rather than H1. Would have been a much stronger position.
mherby ... after yesterday, we are only 50% left of what was Solo.
Scrub that last one, doesn't matter what we are called or what the news is. Market capitalization only £6 million so only one year left of this company now before they strip it completely.
So are we still Solo Oil then? What's happened?
I think the probability of the licence being issued is almost 100%
Trime, the deal is based on the license being awarded so that has no bearing.
Zebbo, I think Jon Fitzpatrick might have something to say about that! Also, the RNS says they’re funded for the rest of year for current commitments.
The issue will be when 3D seismic moves into the firm budget for year as SOLO will not get close to affording their contribution, hence opening the data room to fast track a sale/deal. I’d expect to see a similar deal to that which AEX struck with ARA, possibly even with AEX or ARA themselves, whereby SOLO retain a smaller % element but get carried on costs... id be happy as long as we kept at least 12.5%...
Fitzpatrick bought £630,000 of shares at 3.5p, and has his reputation at Gneiss to consider. The BOD are heavily invested here. IMO they will wait until the Ruvuma license is approved and the SP is above 2p before any new deals are announced.
Is that it all becomes to much of an uphill battle, particularly as we must be about out of funds. The BoD may just throw the towel in. I may move some funds to Longboat who are following the same strategy and are trading under cash value, with a clean investment vehicle
Means there is no real rise yet. Like trrime my expectation is this should return to pre deal leveks ie around 1.50 to 1.60.
We'll soon know.
Despite the recent low oil price, the East African oil and gas industry is still hot! Here are the inside story and drilling updates in East Africa.
1.Great Expectation: Aminex On Its Way To Drill In Tanzania
London based Independent exploration and production in Tanzania report positivity with its Tanzania operation.
In its latest shareholder updates, the company says that the positive signs in its Tanzanian assets reflect progress with projects
“While we continue to engage in constructive dialogue, Aminex and APT are working diligently to progress workflows such that when the approvals are given, we can quickly move
into an operational phase and deliver first gas from Notrya and begin remediation
work on Kiliwani,”
“ As yet, no formal update has been received from the Government of Tanzania in regard to our licenses, however, we have had positive indication in-country
that the government is approaching a place where it can update the international oil companies”- Says Tom Mackey, Aminex
chief executive.
As said on our last update, the year 2019 was a big one for Aminex PLC. It already secured a drilling contractor to drill Chikumbi-1 well. It signed a farm-out deal with Zubair Corporation’s associate, Ara Petroleum Tanzania limited. The company will not only benefit from financial input but also from the experience of personnel of Ara Petroleum Tanzania Limited. The company also submitted its 2020 working program to the Tanzanian authority.
So, we are keeping a close eye over the coming months for announcements from the company confirming the permitting and contracting process is on track
https://tanzaniapetroleum.com/2020/03/03/oil-and-gas-drilling-updates-in-east-africa/
Highlandmatt's scenario would probably be the preferred option for me, sell half for $10 million which then funds the C1 drill and the 3D and 2020 work programme and then look to either sell the remaining 12.5% post C1 or fund the EPS.
I agree it's likely to be the Zubairs, the Bod say they have had several approaches, so several parties interested according to them anyway. The market price has already been set by the Zubairs as $20 mill with their current offer. No shareholder would vote for less surely?
If that's the case trrime then both AEX and solo have had it and even the Zubairs will walk. In saying that I believe now the PSa's are complete that we are likely to see licence awards soon and movement on this $6.7 million owed to the JV. The Zubairs (APT) are surely the most likely buyer in the market and the closes to what is happening on the ground in Tanzania.
Lets see what comes out of the meeting between AEX and the Gov.
$10m for 12.5% would fund the Ruvuma capex, leave some for leveraging other deals, and still leave us in Ruvuma to reap the rewards post development.
Current market price for 25% = $20 million. With a licence and the approved drill 3d 2020 work programme then add a little more.
"The Company has invested time, energy and cost into this process, however the majority of costs were success based and therefore limited our exposure to this no-deal scenario. Our existing portfolio contains material unrealised value which we seek to unlock in the near-term through various initiatives. We will provide an update to shareholders on next steps and near-term objectives in the coming weeks."
May as well.
Would probably be at least another five years before any real return anyway.
A small dividend and the rest invested in producing assets that give us money in the bank now not in years from now.
IF NO LICENCE ARRIVES IN THE NEXT TWO MONTHS THEN SELL OUR ASSET FOR 20-25 MILLION PLEASE !!!
Bob Hope & No Hope !!!!
Latino, would have thought SP would recover near that...allowing for expense of abortive deal....
but 6 months closer to Helium One IPO and Ruvuma license.