Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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1) All in all, positives and negatives from the last two days of news balance out, with a slight positive bias since we actually have progress and some additional clarity.
2) I find it somewhat reassuring (mildly but still...) that the company does what the company says, which highlights the value of listening what the company says (Quady loves that!). Better that for us rather than relying on the often misguided micro-commentary and volatile moods of this board.
3) The PFS seems good, or good enough, but of course it's a bit cheeky to use a higher resource price.
4) Considering the progress and the actual roadmap that has been indicated, I would agree that we are in a stronger position than we have been in the past, what we were not made aware of was the under-the-carpet dirt that was accumulating, so it's reassuring (again, mildly...) that the company is just being pragmatic and focussed on putting the real company building blocks in place.
5) The one grudge I still have, but this started in the NM days, is the way management seems to take a gamble with our money. IF it's true that they are not practically concerned (remember they have to say otherwise in the MD&A because it's a PWC ratified document) about funding because they know something we don;t know and they cannot yet tell us about, to the point that the can push the cash position to dangerously low levels before raising funds, we private investors are still left with having to use faith rather than good rational judgement about the risks we are investing into. This binary way to develop the strategy has kept us holding our breath since 2017, and that is the one unforgivable sin in my opinion.
6) I will not bore you with my calculations, but my updated estimates, factoring in market sentiment and actual SR news, now point to a 20-25p target in the medium term. naturally, should a bidding war take place, all bets are off, but I don;t really see a bidding war happening to be honest.
GLA
Trust The Italian to put forward a reasonable level headed summary of today’s news.
It’s a a shame th4 rampers can’t learn a thing or two from posters like the Italian………
SOLG has also been one for the traders and long termers and for those that do a bit of both. For the likes of Bob and Mather et al, they only really have one option and that's to hold and get a deal away. So in the end game, they are aligned with all shareholders but it's the inbetween process (as you say) which often feels like they have chucked pi's to the wolves. Not all pi's can stomach the ups and downs. Some with leverage or mis timed trades get burned ... and so they should as that's gambling no different to horses or fruit machines no matter how sure you think the outcome is.
Bottom line... the asset is back in the window and it will catch more attention now that many can afford it.
Furthermore, as we are led to believe, interested parties have been in the data room for well over 18 months now. So some will be very very advanced with due diligence and others will be readjusting their views or returning to the table.
I know it's cynical... but if I had no scruples what-so-ever and cared nothing about reputation, then I would place those 157m shares into my mates hands or offshore unrelated accounts .. double my holding from 155m to 312m placing them at 9p or something and then within a month or two... recommend an offer via some entity for 35p a share.
Like Bob said... no one cares about individual circumstances or pi's vs investment funds.. no one cares... but the only think that they all care about is making money. Some will make more than others. Indeed Bob... some will.
Remember, at 6.4p a share you all have a chance to add to stock if you can afford it. If you can't... that's your problem... that's Bob's mantra and a sad one at that unfortunately. But that's markets for you. They lean to the insiders... they benefit the rich.
That's fraud drake.
Grow up!
The PFS may not recognise it but potential bidders will. Gold will be a lot higher in the years to come so this is looking a steal
Forget the copper that helps pay for the mining of the gold if nothing else
On a side note, if you look at the past raise and royalty deal done in late 2022, Bob and co clearly thought it would get them to June 30th 2024. If they thought they needed more then they would have got that away back then. So based on that, it's fair to assume that the 157m CGP shares that Scott has cited a few times as potential for future funding with zero dilution (as already in issue) would have been valued at around same price (in their minds) so at 16p, that's not far off $30m. That would sort a further year if they required it.
So if this is a game of 'playing for time' and remember, we've already been told that the Chinese have been kicking tyres for sometime now...then the way to put pressure on management is to suppress share price and limit the impact of those 157m shares. Royalty option is still viable and Chinese or BHP et al really don't want that to happen. So it's dangerous if they push SOLG into doing another royalty... that in effect counters the argument above. But overall, I think it's clear that this has run longer than Bob previously imagined. Chinese new year ends next week so you never know... news might drop when you least expect it .. bit like today's PFS.... not many thought that was coming until late March.
Personally, I think on basis of PFS today, Scott is welcome to part of his 30m bonus shares at 17p. But future awards should be zero. There should not be any further bonus share awards based on the sp performance and the weak cash balance.
TheItalian - "20-25p target" - careful, you'll get called a deramper!
Out of curiousity, is that target for Cascabel only? I.e. attributing zero value to Porvenir and regionals?
Best wishes.
Mini cascabel has to be worth $2bn alone then there’s the rest of the mine to go at (some 80%) with the profits
And the two smaller finds can feed into it all
All it takes is one suitor to show their hand. We’re close
@NMM, the 20-25p estimate is for cascabel only, based on the assumption that the market would not price in any other assets at this stage. Considering it seems difficult to get Cascabel itself priced in completely, it might just be a reasonable assumption.
In theory my projections are higher (see below, and they are indeed theoretical), but I think that theory does not match reality in this market phase.
Exploration valuation = 30p to 45p
Feasibility valuation = 70p to 80p
Development valuation = 90p to 120p
Production valuation = > 130p
Best, TI
"Personally, I think on basis of PFS today, Scott is welcome to part of his 30m bonus shares at 17p. But future awards should be zero."
No Fort. Scott hasn't met any of the performance criteria for award of his options. Hence he ISN'T welcome to them.
He needs a SP of minimum 25p. Much higher in reality due to 3yr averages being used, and full entitlement at 35p+