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The combined net asset position of CGP and us is approx £482m. The combined market cap is approx £446m. In other words, the current share price of both companies is giving us a valuation roughly equivalent to net assets.
We all believe this is a significant under-valuation, but it's easy to understand why the market doesn't.
I didn't say it was; it's simply one valuation, which incidentally, is not too far off the mark.
Bought another 99,171 just under 16.1....
Now let's wait and see...off to do the shopping...
Incidentally, I don't believe anyone is applying any sophisticated valuation techniques to us at the moment for the simple reason it's virtually impossible to do so.
Our assets could be worth multiple billions or, they could be worth nothing - I'm applying that comment to us, not the asset itself. And the current absence of cash makes the task even more difficult.
The net asset position takes into account the various categories you describe, but bear in mind virtually all of our assets relate to Cascabel and the rest is de minimus. As for other concessions, we have never been given any credit for them, which is hardly surprising. Hopefully that will change once we have an MRE for Porv.
Of course you are right about accounts merely being a snapshot, but the fact is the only change that has occurred since the y/e is that the cash position has diminished.
Sitting so long at such a miserably low share price is enough to affect one's sense of self worth.
The only true valuation we will get is when a bid comes. The market valuation cannot be based on these current tiny volumes.
Just keep loading up guys as and when able and never look a gift horse in the mouth...
Have a great weekend all fireworks next week, bang n time... ;))
You are absolutely right, Sean. It's just my opinion that, for the lack of a better alternative, the market is judging us by our net asset position.
Interesting discussion.
I agree with both of you. Addicknt I feel has it spot on re current valuation and appetite from the market to apportion any sort of premium.
HubrisHunter makes some fair points in terms of future outlook, setting out the reasons we're all here.
I think there's merit in what you're both saying and a market will absolutely look back at financial results as a means to find a valuation when there's little to no appetite for risk on. When it flips however....
Bought another £100k...thats it...
100k...
Can already sell at breakeven..waiting for liftoff...
We are OVERDUE news about the stake sale...
Has to be at a premium and then watch the price surge on speculation...
Remember what happened with the Mitsui news and the merger RNS...21p in an instant (before settling back)...
The hard choices are coming...
At what price would you sell some...?
At what price would you sell all....?
Are you going tyto hold the lot for a successful takeover...?
(Because Quady is holding for production he'll be holding Sumitomo shares...)
Or are you going to trade on the margin until the big one comes...?
Looks like FOMO is starting to take hold...how soon till we see 17p...?
Any ideas whats happeneing here...?
Somebody is buying big in the background again...
Thin early on...now bid for 250,000...16.60 on the offer...
Think we’ll see a lot more than 17p Red
Bid for 350k...
250k removed...was it filled or has it been withdrawn temporarily?
The latter I suspect...they'll be back...could be the 6.7% stakebuyer topping up in advance of the announcemenmt...
Ah...there they are...bidding ABOVE the market for size...
Wow! Look at copper go...up 7% in 24 hours...
This has caught fire...heading fast for 17p...bid for 300k again...16.78 paid...
Too many people trying to talk others into uncertainty here. So close here would be a shame to sell my 800k shares too early!
ONWARDS AND UPWARDS
Bit of paranoia from you there Novice I feel.
People are merely discussing why a share promising so much more than £375m is priced at £375m. Sometimes you've got to drill down and talk about those things that aren't obvious.
Get some fresh air on this crisp November afternoon and come back soon when we're 55p.
LM, indeed. I fear that when the bid arrives RK will explode, just like Mr Creosote.
Lunch
I think todays rise makes little difference in the grand scheme. Volume gradually increasing and news any minute ….. only my opinion but very confident of a big rise soon based on real news
50p by Friday novice...?
Seriously though, it strikes me that the 6.7% stake sale would be annunced in Canada because thats where CGP are listed...
So it coiuld even come afterhours today...
Then watch the SP on Monday...
Novice, so you think trying to understand why we are at our current valuation is 'trying to talk others into uncertainty'? Hmm.