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for me, it means just that! "potential" ....It doesn't mean "probable or "imminent"!
I read into the the word "potential" the same as I do the word "possible"! Look guy's there could be a bid on Monday, but I honestly don't see the signs on the horizon. If a bid lands, happy day's for all (if it's the right price). I just cant begin to see one landing anytime soon, if ever. A complicated multi J/V for me Im afraid. FOMO applies to all the majors these days. If there was a outright buyer, it will be the Chinese. They always pay top dollar. They buy for the state and dont have shareholders to pacify!
Fishing time...hooray.
Agreed Copperpot, people need to answer why no bid up till now.
Then they need to answer why not.
Many things stop a bid.
The diverse book, as this does two things.
First it stops a cheap bid.
Second it stops major shareholders selling cheap, and causing a stalemate.
As you know I follow the statements made by the company and the actions taken.
We have announced that we are looking at a JV.
This has been part of the strategic review.
We know we are looking at hydroelectric to reduce costs.
This is also in the remit of the strategic review.
We are not advertising Alpala to be sold.
For the people on here that say, "well of course we wouldn't say that".
May I remind you we have said that for other tenements, so that argument holds no water.
However since the CGP deal which will be completed soon, if no complications. We now will own 100% of ENSA.
This makes it easier and cheaper to finance.
I still believe Solgold will take Cascabel to production, however we do it as a JV because that is what the company is saying.
Q, putting to one side your usual narrative, may I ask why you think a jv would be so good for shareholders?
We would be minority holders and would have little control of the situation, but even that isn't the real reason not to want one.
Let's say we end up with 20%, and after ten years the project has a value of 10bn... 2bn value attributed to us isn't exactly that exciting, is it? And then there's the issue of why any major(s) would want to have us owning anything when they quite clearly don't need us.
I understand why you like the idea of a jv, but fail to see why you think it's the road to riches.
Addicknt I will answer your question, but first if I may, you have misrepresented me again.
It's not about what I want. It never has been.
It's about being a dispassionate investor and looking at the statements by the company, their actions, the facts and the evidence.
By understanding this as much of any of us can, we can look at what is the most probable outcome.
My posts have always been a reflection of the evidence and facts surrounding Solgold.
Q, the track record of the company in terms of delivering what it says is abysmal. However, having said that, I do believe the new team will, and given the evidence of what's going on, I believe we're heading for an exit.
No point in trying to change anyone's mind here, and certainly would not advocate controlling who can post what. So can we settle on not stating that a 'bid is coming' as fact? Anyone can see that it's not a 100% definite that there will be a bid. You can believe it's highly likely, even close to certain. But not 100% guaranteed, hence it's an opinion. So how about the posters who think there is going to be a bid say that it is just their opinion? That was, onlookers won't be drawn to incorrect conclusions.
Also, let's have the 'bid' contingent put a date on it, if they are feeling confident. We'll ignore all the proposed time-frames that have already come and gone. We'll start today. I'm still saying, in my opinion, no bid before AGM '23.
Who will give a sooner date by which there will be a bid? If you're wrong, the only consequence is a longer wait for your payday and a little message from me the day after, marking that another incorrect deadline as passed. If you're right, you'll be rich and happy, so you won't care about my apology here!
You may be right Addicknt.
But up till now you have been wrong and said we are getting a bid often.
I accept that someone could offer us a full and fair bid.
But ask yourself a question. Why would they?
Surely we would have been bid for by now.
The CGP deal makes us less likely to sell Cascabel.
As major shareholders diluted and the increased diversity of the book, means it's harder for all parties to agree a price unless a hostile bid is launched.
Q, you mention misrepresentation, I fear you are equally guilty. Way back in time I may have suggested a bid was on its way and I was self-evidently wrong. Since then I've been careful not to suggest timelines, only that it was an inevitability. I have followed this approach with regard to valuation, as well, and have never given one.
If I may return to your view and the suggestion I've misrepresented you again. You've now accepted we cannot and will not take this to production on our own (I hope I haven't misrepresented your statements) and are now of the opinion a jv will happen, but that you are not really excited by the prospect. So, if we can't go it alone, and a jv isn't that interesting, surely the best option is a disposal?
Quady - we a few reasons why there has been no bid before now:
- Cascabel has proven painstakingly slow to push through feasibility, and current shareholders expected to slowly creep up the share register via a steady stream of equity dilution. SolGold has offered resistance to this as we know.
- Many potential acquirers have been waiting to see whether a satellite target for an open pit could be developed. SolGold has gone some way to prove this at Tandyama over the last 18 months.
- Potential acquirers are still naturally reluctant to make a big move in a country like Ecuador without helping shape the direction of their policy on mining. After all, nobody wants to invest multi-billions of dollars to be stopped by future governments.
- Potential acquirers have developed their own strategies, many using the last 5 years or so to attain a serious level of cash richness, letting explorers like SolGold bear the exploration risk, possibly in the expectation that commodity prices may fall before they next rise, thus providing a bargain opportunity.
Add all of that to the fact that SolGold have been heavily defensive towards an approach. Mather has always set his stall in a completely different price postcode to where an acquirer wants to deal and his influence has been a deterrent. There is simply lower hanging fruit.
But what has changed now? The merger and the strategic review. SolGold has told the market is is exploring all options. That itself draws a line in the sand in terms of everything that happened before whilst the company held aims of becoming a major minor and developing a multi project portfolio.
The goalposts haven't just moved. We're playing a different game. It's time for you Quady, if you do wish, to take solace from the fact that SolGold wasn't sold before the merger despite many saying it would be, despite the press saying it would be, etc.
But it really is now the time to come down off this hill, because dying on it is going to look very silly.
Agreed Add. A JV is the worst possible result for shareholders.
I've asked Quady similar questions a couple of times and they've never been properly answered. He just moves off on a tangent and changes the discussion.