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Of course you are correct and it’s all crystal ball gazing but I feel happier going large at these levels than if we were at an all time high.
Whilst there's some overlap between SMT & PCT/ATT, there are significant differences too. You're not really comparing apples with apples.
So IMHO referring to them in the same breath doesn't really get us anywhere. Yes, PCT/ATT have recently significantly outperformed SMT. But you can selectively choose other periods where the opposite's true.
I'm not saying PCT & ATT haven't been great long term investments - PCT in particular clearly has. But that doesn't make SMT duff. Nor is it necessarily a reliable indicator of their relative future performance.
PCT is about 2935 at the time of writing, which is comfortably above the previous peak of about 2746 at the end of Dec 2021. SMT, in comparison, is about 809 today versus about 1543 at the peak two years ago. If these two funds are in any way comparable, SMT should rise more than 15 to 17%, Strictlyzinc. I would be delighted if it did, but I won't hold my breath.
Yeah Strictly... hope so! I am hoping now that I have patiently held this long to get to my average I can see some profit before I sell half or so. I need the money ready for 5 years time so I want to lock at least half of it away safely.
So PCT and ATT are up 15-17% for 2024 and SMT …….. 2%.
I see a healthy upside correction coming you would think!
Haha indeed. Maybe it just feels like that. So often there is a surge upwards and you know beyond a shadow of a doubt it will be stamped out and retreat as quickly as it rose.
StrictlyZinc what is a fake rally?
I was 3p a share away from breaking even this morning! Haha
Still lots of hate towards SMT pulling the rug last hour. Strange that both PCT and ATT climbed at kept their gains. Tells us a lot about anti SMT algos!
Don’t be suckered into scam rally like this morning buying at 811
Stocksr - Waiting for it to drop to 700p might be a stretch, given we're most likely at peak rates in the US which influences this IT.
I know I sound hypocritical, but if you're thinking of getting in, now might be a good time to enter. A bit here a bit there. By say 10% of your target this week.....Wait another 2 weeks and buy another 10% if it drops say 3%...and so on.
Sentiment is everything as we know rather than solid fundamentals. So interesting that every increase in NAV sees an initial price surge before the algos kick in and kick it down. Would be so good if we can hold £8
The sellers are selling to people (and automated trading programs) who think it's the right time to buy.
Lots of selling on trading page, usual behaviour selling low and/or buying high, unless they were wise and bought at £5 about 4 years ago...
It's good to have a plan
Hi LOL, Americano, PJM, Stuart, Beachouse, Tambo, and others, having exhaustively analysed last 2 years charts, my plan is to buy 20% of holding at £7 (if it drops to that), and sell 20% at £14 (if it rises to that), otherwise hold, master plan with no real financial expertise, might just work.....
Stuartrm - it's true there are countless potential threats to stability & security right now. Which is why many markets (US excluded) seem fairly moribund ATM.
However, there's also a possibility some/none of these nightmare scenarios fully (or even partially) transpire. I suspect Trump will get back in. But I also suspect this would have less impact than some fear. Whilst he may feel even more emboldened by a second term, his last Presidency didn't spell disaster for global markets. Far from it. And indeed, given his "Make America Great Again / America First" mantra, he might give US firms a major boost (where SMT is heavily skewed with over 36%).
Of course, I'm not suggesting for a second any US trade war with China would be in the least bit desirable or smart. But there's already strong momentum (not just from America) to pivot away from Chinese supply dependency. Trump would probably accelerate this trend, but I suspect it would still be fairly gradual & sector specific. Even he might just about be able to grasp that an all-out trade war with your country's biggest supplier might not end well.
On the other hand, we are talking Trump here ......!
Thank you for the clarification, MrAmericano. I am unclear, however, whether your reference to the east applies to Ukraine or Taiwan. Despite recent huffing and puffing over helping Ukraine, it is looking increasingly likely that Europe cannot help materially (aided by deliberate foot dragging by Germany with Taurus, and by France in general) and America won’t help (Mr Johnson in Congress). The danger, as we all know, is that Ukraine will collapse and China will become emboldened over Taiwan. If that happens, any 15% tariffs that a re-elected Mr Trump might apply could be the least of our worries, even if the risk of Russia simultaneously expanding into Moldova and beyond is discounted.
As the old saying goes, we live in interesting times.
Stuartrm
That's not what I meant. The UK would have zero impact I agree. But an intervention by NATO in the East, and a potential Trump win with his threat of tariffs could cause another global-inflation shock. There has also been speculation that a series of unplanned tax cuts, and more squeezing of the public sector could indeed cause jitters in the UK bond market again.
It is difficult to judge what will happen with Russia and Mr Donald Trump, Mr Americano. With respect to Mr Hunt, I doubt he will be anywhere near as radical (to put it politely) as Mr Kwarteng. Moreover, even if he were foolish enough to try such wild tax cuts, given the market reaction to those of Mr Kwarteng, he is likely to be replaced by Ms Reeves within a few months. Whether or not she would be an improvement is not for me to say. In any event, the UK economy is too small to cause a global inflation shock so any damage that might be caused by a UK chancellor would be of domestic, rather than of international, concern.
With all the sabre-rattling directed to Russia, a potentially Qwartang-Trussesque chancellor in Hunt, and the spectre of D Trump getting back in and introducing 15% trade tariffs against China, then there could well be another global inflation shock in the next couple of years.
Your last post had "buy", this one "hold". Presume you have changed your mind and now feel a little more bullish? :)
Sitting on the fence since this hasn't reached my sell target........We're getting close to interest rate cuts (2H24), so there's a likelihood underlying holdings will gravitate upwards. But not massively for the next 2 years.
MRNA - is still a 2026 story with COVID revs dragging it down. Wish they'd come clean regarding the RSV efficacy.
Mercado Libre - results were a pain, but should find support unless the Brazil tax thing becomes a regular event.
ASML and NVDA are riding high, but that in itself entails a bubble. The AI/ML build out will pause at some point, and inventory build up will be a sign of a big dip.
TSLA - they're seeing increased signs of competition in all markets. They're cars are way too expensive for retail customers. Recent numbers confirmed my opinion that a very large proportion of their sales are lease buyers (company car.)
Amazon is stable - their AWS service is dominant along with MSFT Azure (Surprised SMT doesn't hold MSFT)
SpaceX is a promising hold. I think they need to IPO due to the need to raise funds and the thing will go gangbusters like TSLA did.
In summary, I don't see the trust price dropping to 700p again, since interest rate rises are largely done (please inflation fall to 2%!!!). But in terms of a catalyst to see a 50% rise from here over 24 months? No. Steady 5% avg growth per annum for the next 2 years
Tambo, unless I have misremembered I thought you were looking to fully exit when SMT reaches £8.10?
Your last post had "buy", this one "hold". Presume you have changed your mind and now feel a little more bullish? :)
SMT is a huge IT with a history. When it falls, people love to point that out. The media will jump on it just like Woodford.
SMT needs to get out of th limelight and just trade without bias.
This year as has been pointed out, interest rate cut in the US will nudge the individual holdings up (prob 2H24), and that will raise the NAV. What the SP will do is anyone's guess since the discount isn't maintained on an absolute basis.
Stuartrmn, I hold an equal amount of PCT as SMT and agree it has done a lot better since the general decline beginning Nov 21.
I personally believe this to have been for a number of over hyped reasons that still engender stubborn resistance (discussed on here over the last couple of years to exhaustion) and feel it likely that SMT will gain popularity and outperform PCT in the not so distant future.
Could I be wrong? Yes... but I do view the likelihood more likely than the reverse scenario.
I still consider SMT a steal at today's SP as nothing has really occurred in that portfolio that actually evidences such abject negativity (excepting the increased risk as concerns the 30% unlisted holdings, that is).