Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Same for me Tom78 - as long as the discounts do finally start getting closer!
Aye, I know just a wee tongue in cheek comment. A lot of my other investment trusts are running on historically whopping discounts as well and they are not stuffed full of dross either. Right now I can sit tight and just hope one day the discounts will close as I am sat on many thousands in unrealised market value if discounts return to 'normal' .
Tom78 - I guess it's all relative. At least a consistently rising NAV will normally lead to a stronger share price (eventually).
That said, if the discount to NAV widens, we could be back to square one.
But that discount has also been narrowing in recent months. From about 23% at its worst last summer to just a little over half that currently.
So for the moment, trends are positive.......
Excellent. We can now sell our shares for only a whole pound lower than fair value. Rejoice!
NAV hit 900p. SP hit 800p. Its finally starting to look positive on a consistent basis again.
Yes LLoL, I picked up on that too - almost as if they are moving the goalposts a bit :) Almost everything I read about the trust these days is positive though with the general expectation of globally falling interest rates over the coming years naturally benefitting growth stocks.
Thefrogster - thanks for that link.
Some of their points have already been made by posters here.
But I found the bit about an average holding period of 20 years interesting. Reiterates why the fund is more suited to investors willing to hold longish term (though I’m not suggesting anything like 20 years. Just not for those who might need their capital back in 1 -2 years).
Interesting Trustnet article:
https://www.trustnet.com/news/13403996/when-scottish-mortgage-will-flourish-and-struggle
Littened it used to be 5 years now its 10 years then it will be 15 years as long as it gets people to hold.
Cowen raising doubts over some data they've seen regarding MRNA's RSV vaccine sustainability.
Down 7pc yesterday and another 7% today.
Not sure how they saw the data without MRNA commenting on it first...publication at conference or leak? That's kinda a biggy to have effectiveness wane quicker than approved GSK and PFE ones.
I'd love to buy MRNA if it reaches $60,
Welcome ThePecker.
I guess we all wish we had sold at £15 and bought back in at £6.40, but no one knew where it would stop, I suppose.
I agree it will again get past £15 in the LT, but think this will be quite a number of years in all honesty.
To be realistic that level was reached at the time down to everyone piling their money into it as it was outperforming everything down to beautifully fitting conditions.
Lovely to see the volatility lost in recent months as we emerge into greener pastures, but at £15 I guess we all knew it was a pretty frothy valuation.
Thanks for the honourable mention. I am close to break even now. Within pence! I am not selling yet but will perhaps make an exit the next time it is in a decent profits I once enjoyed! I like you believe it will get there but really not sure if that is months, years or decades!
Yup, keep your Pecker up :)
Just joined this chat - like Captain P I have been in for a 6+ year period, wish I had sold at the £15 mark (and then reinvested at half the price!) but am convinced that in the LT this will easily exceed this level
Walp - I think tougher regulation will come, as there's mounting public pressure. And it has to be government led.
You could argue it's already arrived here in the UK, in the form of the Online Safety Bill. Though, as with any new legislation, we've yet to see the real proof of the pudding.
Time & again, social media companies have shown abject disregard for their members' wellbeing. And a laser-like focus on profit alone. They'll never change until the consequence of non-compliance is an eye-watering fine & a long stretch at His Majesty's Pleasure (or the overseas equivalent) for any of their law-breaking Directors.
Let's hope that if it's all down to the lack of future confidence the well paid managers have the insight to see the future likelihood and adjust accordingly.
I'm thinking tech developments in AI and other advances might however play a reasonable part in this.
Whichever, I'm guessing it will effect come concerns more than others in whichever direction.
The pressure is also (rightfully) mounting re regulation for concerns such as meta and others, going from US critique and challenge (in the main) to a more Westernised lowered tolerance re regulation.
I have to say that I totally agree with Brianna Ghey's poor mother in restricting FB (and other med) down for children, which of course is going to dent the profitability of these type of concerns..
Will it happen? In the past it's been difficult down to the base fact that these companies are "doing nothing different or illegal in their current operations, yet I believe the snowball is getting bigger and there will be one a point.
Interesting thinking both as goes the investment in these companies and (ultimately as shareholders) our consciences.
Telling how many tech sector layoffs there've been in the past year or so.
In 2023, big hitters with the job jitters included Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, SAP, Meta, Oracle, Qualcomm, IBM & Cisco amongst others.
And already this year, there's been that shrinking feeling at: Alphabet & its Google subsidiary (again), Microsoft (again), Ebay, SAP (again) & Snap (Snapchat's operator).
I guess you could read this several ways.
EITHER - tech firms are belatedly realising the pandemic gave them a one-off turbo boost. And it ain't coming back, so they need to cut their cloth accordingly via a leaner, meaner workforce.
OR - tech firms are uncertain how the global economy is going to fare over the next year or two, so are shedding staff now to get ahead of a potentially downward curve.
Possibly it's a bit of both. And who could blame them for finding the economic future unusually hard to read right now?
Either way, it suggests the tech sector - & other areas SMT majors in - could remain volatile for a while yet, even if global inflation continues to trend down. Ever-lower inflation isn't a given anyway - many "experts" are predicting it picking up slightly over the summer, though to nothing like the levels seen over the past 18 months.
I remain positive about SMT's long term prospects. And by long term I'm talking a shorter than normal 2-3 year timeframe (given the 2+ years of decline already experienced). But it could still be rocky out there. And of course, the forthcoming US & UK elections - not to mention the possibility of another warmongering crank popping up - might just shake things up even more than expected.
Interesting times ahead!
It's only a 6% up on 6 months ago today, make that 5.5 months and it's nearer 20%, but whatever.. Volatility, volatility (hopefully less of that now)..
I guess no one knows anything beyond the certainty of death, but heading towards greener inflationary fields I would agree that investing in SMT for the long term from here on in would appear a fairly rational strategy however it subsequently ends up (to my mind at least).
That from someone privileged enough to have suffered the good over many years, then the very bad post Nov 21 (bust still being very happy with the net return over my long investment period). A massive shock to those buying more recently, which I am empathetic to.
It's certainly a long term hold or nothing I would suggest, and there is certainly always the possibility of further volatility and shock.
Littlened - That percentage doesn't look right.
And in any case, 6 months is an even less relevant timeframe by which to judge SMT, IMHO.
22.25% over last 6 months ????
Littlened - possibly, but you make one very big assumption there. Namely that past performance is a guide to the future.
Which, as we all know, is something every investment tells you not to assume.
I remain cautiously optimistic about SMT. But not, primarily, as a result of its performance over the last decade.
SMT has returned 301.8% over last 10 years ,despite a loss of 38% over last 3 years.A core holding holding for anyone with a time horizon of 10 years
Nice article, LLL. Thankyou.
It summed a lot up for me... Volatility and risk aversion being major keywords in the article that to my mind have played a big part in recent underperformance whilst not being particularly logically derived when looking at the big picture (imho).
Admittedly it's been rocky, but I believe those disciplined enough to sit on their hands will likely see fruit before too long.
Made a few scathing comments in the past re SMT, but bought a few shares on 15/4/23 and 15/11/23 up 15.7% and 5.69%. My thinking at the time was that the the SP couldn't get much lower; although my thoughts on the management ability could, but share price could rise anyway. There's a certain smug/complacency with management when the press publications routinely recommend them, as popular shares purchased.
IMHO, this article gives a fairly balanced account of where we're at. And how a more benign economic backdrop in 2024 might shake things up (assuming it comes).
Mind, the author does own shares in SMT. So he's not exactly neutral.....
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/what-should-investors-do-with-scottish-mortgage