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Any investors in Blue Whale here? I'm thinking of swopping out of SMT into Blue Whale that seems to have a similar investment strategy. TIA
Thanks LLoL - I imagine Elliots will be all over the valuations at the moment though. I just hope they're not looking to make a quick buck and flip their holding as this wouldn't be good for the SP short term.
Thefrogster - thanks for that. Though I can't vouch for its accuracy, I've since found the following article on re-valuation frequency, which states: "Valuations for Scottish Mortgage’s private holdings, and all of Baillie Gifford’s trusts with unquoted exposure, are carried out by internal committees with input from an independent third party, IHS Markit. The private holdings are re-valued on a rolling-three-month cycle, with a third of the unlisted holdings valued every 30 days. However, pricing is monitored daily by Baillie Gifford’s private valuations team."
The full article, dating back to June 22 can be found here:
portfolio-adviser.com/are-scottish-mortgages-unquoted-valuations-detached-from-reality/
I remember reading last year (sorry, can't find the article) that SMT revalue a third of the private holdings each month in addition to some adhoc valuations being carried out.
Walp - I can’t comment on SMT’s performance relative to ATT/PCT as I don’t hold or follow either of those.
I suspect SMT’s fairly high proportion of unlisted holdings is still a drag on sentiment. So this might explain part of the disparity. Though the managers have suggested these holdings are regularly re-valued & that this is done independently of the fund managers (& more often than once a year I thought?). Sentiment here could change though, either if one or more unlisted holdings IPO’s. Or when inflation is finally seen to be tamed and rates start to drop, which is then likely to make growth stocks in particular - and shares in general - more attractive compared to cash.
Longer we might hope, LLL.
I must admit to becoming slightly baffled as to the continued distrust in SMT which is still so evident when comparing to the likes of others such as pct and att (both of which having wiped their faces or beyond since the falls of 2021). Sure you are right in that high inflation is continuing to linger, but given that the others have undergone a fulsome recovery (albeit not far in excess of their 2021 peaks, SMT rain somewhat in the doldrums).
I note the nav is currently around -7% and that unlisted concerns (a big wodge) are only fully worth evaluated after 12 months, but most of the portfolio should now have been evaluated?
I'm holding come what may for more recovery to come, however, so just musings. That being said there are still no signs as goes sentiment that SMT are seen as undervalued and a future cracker.
What do you think on this and what are your thoughts concerning such lacklustre continued recovery (much discussed in the past, I know)...
I actually think it’s better in the long run if the Fed & BOE take their time to ensure inflation is properly under control before introducing any rate cuts.
They’ve sometimes jumped the gun in the past, only to see inflation creep back up again.
Guess I’ve a slight vested interest here too! I moved cash savings into long term fixed / base rate tracker accounts around the middle of last year, suspecting rates might stay higher for longer than market consensus at the time.
As for SMT, most of the impact of Elliott’s initial intervention & the boosted buyback scheme feels like it might be priced in by now. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott’s endgame unfolds. Will they be happy to encash their stake within the next few months, assuming they can realise a decent profit? Or are they in it for the longer term, intent on agitating for more radical reform? Answers on a postcard please!
If anything, I think the latest US CPI report will cause nothing more than a temporary pullback. Rates will start to fall at some point - maybe just not as quickly as the market first priced in.
Will probably eat my words, but it's holding up well despite the CPI report from the USA yesterday.
Hi Dart and LoL, looking at 2 year chart, its neither a rising high nor a falling high at moment, on balance its a hold or buy, certainly not a sell
I bought and sold a few equities and trusts today. I wanted to be out for longer here, but it hit the target that I stated in my previous post. I like the trust, I banked 2% of my 6% profit, so decided to buy back. Im not planning on posting every time I buy or sell, but the post demonstrates the volatility here, especially when the S&P dropped 5% today because of weak Tesla sales. Buying back in was probably a bit rash, I think it goes lower.
Dartron - Thought you were reinvesting in a different IT?
Least, that’s what you posted last week.
I guess SMT can be traded, but it’s a risky strategy IMHO. Especially when the trust specifically targets & markets itself towards long term investors.
Anyhow, good luck whatever your “plans”. But maybe don’t offer us a running commentary, especially when it appears so inconsistent.
Well I got back in at 874, helped by the Tesla news. I only bought back 2/3, could get choppy over the next few days.
Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/diyinvesting/article-13173427/We-Covid-vaccine-48-hours-cancer-Moderna-boss-talks-Scottish-Mortgages-Tom-Slater.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.97818200.673184734.1711872187-730764756.1710093333&_gl=1*6xvr2c*_ga*NzMwNzY0NzU2LjE3MTAwOTMzMzM.*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTcxMjAwNTY3Ni4yNS4xLjE3MTIwMDYxNzcuMC4wLjA.
Meconopsis - thanks. As the ST article (which I’ve now read) points out though, there have been recent funding rounds with some of SMT’s unlisted holdings. So it doesn’t have to be SMT doing the selling for a value point to be established.
I’m still not convinced selling 1% of your holding in an unlisted share would give investors that accurate a clue as to what the remaining 99% is worth. There could be umpteen reasons for selling, including a firesale where you’re never likely to achieve anywhere near market worth.
Sorry, I meant 2.1 percent of its portfolio are in Brandtech. Series A (2 Investors sticking in $ 350mn), Series B (3 Investors sticking in $ 260mn). Assuming equal take ups, that gives us 350/2 + 260/3 = c. $ 250mn Investment (c £ 200mn). This when it was valued at $ 1.4bn.
Seriec C (SMT did not participate) raised $115mn which equates to c. 3% shareholding.
SMT holding is now valued in SMT Annual Report @ £ 300mn ($390 mn), which looks about right?
I hope I haven't messed it up.
SMT has a 2.1% share in Brandtech. ($ 800mn = c. £ 600mn)
Lordloadsoflolly - what Beachouse says!
Listed shares are priced every second the market is open and that trading information is public.
Unlisted shares might only change hands once every 6, 12 or 18 months - and prices often aren’t disclosed. If SMT were to sell 1% of their holding then they could choose to disclose the price obtained - more public ally valuing their remaining 99%.
The way I see it, with listed shares the share price is based on the last trade, private equity is not actively traded so they say it is difficult to value, but by selling some of the holding you get a price per share that you can use to value the rest of the holding.
Meconopsis - I haven’t seen the ST article. But it seems slightly counter-intuitive to me that selling part of a holding which has yet to list would help unleash its full value. To me, it would look like prematurely jumping ship because you’d lost faith in it.
Or am I missing something?
Just read this. Thought it may be of interest.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/moderna-moves-three-vaccines-into-final-stage-trials.html
“The Sunday Times: Britain’s biggest investment trust has declared it will resist a push from the activist investor Elliott to sell its prized stakes in the privately owned SpaceX and ByteDance, the owner of TikTok.”
The article is very sloppy on how it presents Elliott as seeking SMT to divest itself completely of SpaceX, etc. my understanding from other articles is a desire to sell enough of a stake to be able to show the value of the holdings.
SMT, Elliot and us, we are all in this to make money, if they make money then so do we, they are professionals and I am a private investor, I have to trust that they know a lot more than I do about how these things work. I'm happy with the way things are going, as long as the world keeps turning and in a few months time we get interest rate cuts here and in the US then the upward trend should continue, Moderna might pick up later in the year, they have some good stuff coming through.
Ali1947fish - assuming the ST’s correct, I think the managers are right to hold firm on SpaceX. For me, ByteDance is harder to call. Regulatory pressures have already led to original IPO timetable being jettisoned. Tricky to know whether the Chinese & Americans will soften or further harden their stance over time.
thefrogster - apologies for the typo. You are of course correct that the CGT allowance drops to £3K from 6 April. Still a significant decrease though, which is why I wanted to make the most of this year’s threshold now.
The Sunday Times: Britain’s biggest investment trust has declared it will resist a push from the activist investor Elliott to sell its prized stakes in the privately owned SpaceX and ByteDance, the owner of TikTok.