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With all the sabre-rattling directed to Russia, a potentially Qwartang-Trussesque chancellor in Hunt, and the spectre of D Trump getting back in and introducing 15% trade tariffs against China, then there could well be another global inflation shock in the next couple of years.
Your last post had "buy", this one "hold". Presume you have changed your mind and now feel a little more bullish? :)
Sitting on the fence since this hasn't reached my sell target........We're getting close to interest rate cuts (2H24), so there's a likelihood underlying holdings will gravitate upwards. But not massively for the next 2 years.
MRNA - is still a 2026 story with COVID revs dragging it down. Wish they'd come clean regarding the RSV efficacy.
Mercado Libre - results were a pain, but should find support unless the Brazil tax thing becomes a regular event.
ASML and NVDA are riding high, but that in itself entails a bubble. The AI/ML build out will pause at some point, and inventory build up will be a sign of a big dip.
TSLA - they're seeing increased signs of competition in all markets. They're cars are way too expensive for retail customers. Recent numbers confirmed my opinion that a very large proportion of their sales are lease buyers (company car.)
Amazon is stable - their AWS service is dominant along with MSFT Azure (Surprised SMT doesn't hold MSFT)
SpaceX is a promising hold. I think they need to IPO due to the need to raise funds and the thing will go gangbusters like TSLA did.
In summary, I don't see the trust price dropping to 700p again, since interest rate rises are largely done (please inflation fall to 2%!!!). But in terms of a catalyst to see a 50% rise from here over 24 months? No. Steady 5% avg growth per annum for the next 2 years
Tambo, unless I have misremembered I thought you were looking to fully exit when SMT reaches £8.10?
Your last post had "buy", this one "hold". Presume you have changed your mind and now feel a little more bullish? :)
SMT is a huge IT with a history. When it falls, people love to point that out. The media will jump on it just like Woodford.
SMT needs to get out of th limelight and just trade without bias.
This year as has been pointed out, interest rate cut in the US will nudge the individual holdings up (prob 2H24), and that will raise the NAV. What the SP will do is anyone's guess since the discount isn't maintained on an absolute basis.
Stuartrmn, I hold an equal amount of PCT as SMT and agree it has done a lot better since the general decline beginning Nov 21.
I personally believe this to have been for a number of over hyped reasons that still engender stubborn resistance (discussed on here over the last couple of years to exhaustion) and feel it likely that SMT will gain popularity and outperform PCT in the not so distant future.
Could I be wrong? Yes... but I do view the likelihood more likely than the reverse scenario.
I still consider SMT a steal at today's SP as nothing has really occurred in that portfolio that actually evidences such abject negativity (excepting the increased risk as concerns the 30% unlisted holdings, that is).
Stuartrm - PCT has certainly had a far better run than SMT recently.
However yesterday’s leaders can prove to be tomorrow’s laggards & vice versa. Investors disenchanted with SMT’s performance might possibly be better off diversifying altogether, choosing a fund with totally different geographic & sector emphasis to spread risk?
Let's see what happens this year. When the FED or even BOE make the first interest rate cut, and one of the private companies ipo, which should happen this year, then some of the pundits and analysts who were telling us to sell in the low 600s will be advising us to buy SMT again. As for the world in general, I am hoping for peace to prevail, that benefits everyone.
While I understand the sentiment, because of the size of the swings, SMT has been in an (albeit slow and choppy) upward trend since May last year. Some of my other funds have similar trends. Out of them, the best performing has been PCT. You might wish to look at that one. This s not a recommendation and as usual, do your own research.
Yes, I agree with all that..
Yes PJM, charts moving into disappointing phase again, spell of rising highs has petered out, more like flattening or even falling highs at present, I have a sort of loyalty to SMT because of stellar performance a few years ago, I should have sold a few more at the peaks, hope the managers will sort our the portfolio, selling doesn't make sense ie likely losses, so on balance will hold or even buy some more if they go down to 700, wonder what Buffit would do?
Yep, very frustrating.. I've held this trust for a number of years, and will continue to hold, as I don't need to use any of the money for 5 years when I retire.. But it does seem that every time it looks as though it could break out into higher territory again.. It gets dragged straight back down a day or two later.
Negative sentiment around this Trust is extraordinary, and a bit disappointing..
SMT has been one of my worst performing investments and even recently seems to be being left behind by the rest of my portfolio. It's now less than 4% but I still have nearly £40k worth. At age 75 my investment horizon is getting smaller so time to reduce a bit more I think.
An interesting range of views on Nvidia here.
Though there seems to be some consensus that their current growth rate's unlikely to be sustained for more than another year or two.
Which is why I maintain SMT should be reducing their holding slightly & gradually over the next year. Doing this, they could easily retain a sizeable holding on their books at nil cost. Whether they will or not is quite another matter.
Once NVDA's growth starts to slow (which it inevitably will eventually), it'll be way too late to bank the level of profit that's currently on the table. And whilst agreeing there are significant differences between the revenues & profits of AI companies today and Dotcom start ups of the 90s, there are also similarities. Notably, company valuations at astronomically high revenue multiples by historical standards.
When people start saying everything's different this time round, I start getting REALLY nervous!
Results out. Down in AH.
But that could be due to tax issues in Brazil.
On the surface, the latest results for NVDA are impressive - revenue for the year ending on January 28th 2024 was $60.922bn - more than double the revenue figure of $26.974bn for the previous year ending on January 29th 2023. Much of this revenue growth was fuelled by a massive jump in revenues from it's Data Centre business, which increased from $15.005bn (for the year ending on Jan 29th 23) to $47.525bn (for the year ending on Jan 28th 24) - a whopping 200%+ increase in just one year.
But lets not get too carried away here. With a current market cap of $1.94tn against $60.992bn of revenue, NVDA now trades on a valuation of over 32 times revenues! And this is no small cap AIM growth stock here. This is a company with a near $2tn market cap!
I hope that the managers here will take some profit on their holding, because if they don't they will only have themselves to blame once this obscene bubble bursts - which it will. I have seen this all before I am afraid.
Great day for SMT. Hopefully we see some confidence in SMT from investors again now
LLL,
I personally don't see any comparison between the AI boom and the Dotcom bubble crash of the early 2000s.
The latter was as a result of small companies with minimal earnings. AI is here to stay and only likely to become bigger; it's not just a passing phase.
Nvidia's growth trajectory is unlikely to continue at the same rate ad infinitum but imo it is likely to for the foreseeable future i.e 12-24 months.
All in my opinion of course and DYOR etc
I do think that with all this good news with the listed portfolio and if Space X IPOs as well then we could have a decent rerating (albeit I have thought that a few times :)! )
Good day all
Moderna has posted a profit too today!
Ubik we are getting a great return given 6.5% of the portfolio is rocketting today. Be real. This is a great day
*have = hate
Sometimes I really have the FTSE / UK markets. NVIDIA rocketing and we get a paltry 2.9%.
No idea why LSE has suddenly removed every capital letter from my last post.
They were all there when I keyed it!
Let's see if this one's the same......
whilst ai is set to be huge, i also sense it's going to be the next investment bubble.
to me, valuations in companies like nvidia are increasingly extrapolating current growth levels and assuming they'll continue for the foreseeable.
as those of us long enough in the tooth to remember the dotcom crash know, nothing lasts forever. and valuations which assume otherwise are - eventually - likely to end in tears.
of course, nobody knows for certain when - or indeed if - any correction will come. so it's a brave investor who takes a bit of money off the table just as everyone else is piling in. and they're unlikely to get the timing right, so they risk criticism & derision when they do it. but personally, i'd like to see smt start reducing its exposure to nvidia. not massively, nor eliminating it altogether. just gradually reducing over the next year or so. sure, nvidia might double, triple, *****uple again, as it did between sept 22 & now. but equally - & history suggests far more likely - people will eventually realise even ai has a finite need for new chips. albeit a huge need.
and by the time that realisation dawns, it'll be too late to man the lifeboats. the dotcom crash was savage. i suspect the great ai boom & bust might also be.
Well up after hours on the earnings report so will boost SMT NAV a little bit.