Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
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SENX figures are absolutely mental - this MC is crazy low, this should be £600-700m company easy surely on those figures ???
Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion
Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.
Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion
$6.4 to $ 8.28billion
X0.72 USD / GBP
£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion
HOW IS THE MC ONLY £36m this doesn’t even include the GAS and SENX is predominantly gas. Am I missing something here ????
All you can do Charlie is keep buying more. That's what I have been doing.
Gazza imho I’m expecting a buy out or take over.
CEO was part of Kazakhstan Oil & Gas when they sold out to the Chinese for $4 billion.
The company since his interception has been transformed.
No dept, low cost, oil & gas producer with cash in the bank.
Drilling should be completed and pumps installed shortly.
Expecting a dramatic SP shift on accounts due early next month
Yup me too, feel very lucky to have found this and be getting in at these levels.
Bit of a flurry at the end last night, let’s see if more buying kicks in as word gets round.
Yes, what you are missing is how much of the oil is recoverable
Yes, what you are missing is how much of the oil is recoverable
Charlie any chance you taking your great info you produce on LSE over to the advfn bb as well you would be really appreciated over there
Not on advfnn will look at getting on over the weekend. Will collect all my info I have posted into one word doc then copy and paste.
Like wise if you want to click on my name you can copy and share it’s up to you
Spudton:
This was a calculation to show the recoverable, I used 25-35% of sabria and only 75MMBoe of Satu Mare not the full asset reserves
This in relation to the asset in Tunisia
Sabria
Asset is said to have 358 MMBoe (independently verified)
The resource has had extremely low development with only “1.2% produced”
The reason for this low rates was a variety of reasons - simple reasons - Pumps to increase revenue had not been installed.
Any way the interesting part out of that 358 MMBoe they believe 25-35% recovery factor of which only 1.2% has been recovered.
So ladies and gentlemen I get to the interesting part.
Satu Mare - we use the 75MMBoe mean risked (not the 358MMboe - don’t want to get to greedy)
Sabria - we use A) 25-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 85.2MMboe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 160.2 MMBoe
Sabria - We use B) 35-1.2% of 358 MMBoe = 122 MMBoe + Satu Mare 75MMBoe = 196MMBoe
Recoverable average totalling
160.2MMboe and 196MMboe
Satu mare 75MMboe at say $40 profit (currently $55) =$3billion
Sabria @ 25% - 1.2% = 85.2MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $3.4billion.
Sabria @ 35% - 1.2% = 122MMBoe at say $40 (currently $45) = $4.88 billion
$6.4 to $ 8.28billion
X0.72 USD / GBP
£4.6 billion to £5.96 billion
Taken more this is to cheap imo
3.2p to buy so that figure and over is a buy folks
Just picked up 500k @ 3.25p
I've just watched the presentation. I am in. Payday on the 26th and I'll be adding more.
Hi Charlie, considering how cheap SENX is, what would you reckon the share price should be?
GG171
Standing by my calculations just pumping this post
Revenue $53m
Work this backward
$53,000,000 divided $64 (oil price) =828,125 barrels per year
828,125 / 360 = 2,300 bopd
2,300 x ($64-9 = $55) x 360 = $45,540,000
45,540,00 x PE 4.5 =$209,960,938
$209,960,938 / (USD to GBP = 0.72) = £147,571,875
£147,571,875 / 1.141 billion shares in issue
= 12.9p
However, i have worked back using that figure as net and taken away the $9 costs
If I use the figures we know or expected bopd to be:
3000 bopd x 360 x $55 x P.E 4.5 = $267,300,000
$267,300,000 x 0.72 (exchange) = £192,456,000
£192,456,000 / 1,141,000,000
= 16.8p
Should see a flip on PE ratio to reflect positive cash flow on accounts due end of this month into next.
Minimum without PE of 4.5 I would expect this to be at least 5-6p now.
Problem I see is no one knows about this share, look at volume and look at share chat on this BB
Once accounts issued showing no debt and revenues expect this to fly.
I am also expecting RNS confirming pumps installed and operational
Are you expecting that prior to the accounts being issued?
I would have expect volume to stat picking up as accounts should be ready for 30 April which is 2 weeks today.
Given we know by the company’s website that 44.61% are held by sticky hands. That leaves 55.39% on the market or approx 632m shares.
If we said 10-20% of that are currently held by PIs (don’t think that’s unreasonable) which is 63.2-126.4m leaving approx 505.5m shares, once daily volume picks up the SP should motor quickly imo
For volume the company’s profile needs to pick up.
I mentioned earlier: volume, chat and social media suggest this isn’t on a great deal of radars. (YET)
At £50mMC it will become a target for ii, once accounts show profits, monthly revenue and debt free this will be very attractive to ii with SENX reserves of both Oil & Gas.
Predicting a rally in SP is difficult to predict prior to news due to above points. However, once the market sees the RNS and the herd start taking positions the problem will be getting in at the current prices and will see a lot of NT to buy and why I’m loading up now.
Certainly over the next few trading days as there is only potentially 10 left till news drops more sat on the side lines should be making a move and SP should climb.
According to LSE volume is 6m shares this is only 1.2% of 505.5m available volumes if at the 20% of above figures if 10% - 0.6% .
Could you point me to the. % recoverable references please?
Spudton
Reference to % can be found in this presentation:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VA3M8ijRGCg
From approx 5mins in but if you have t watched it all well worth a watch in full and very interesting
Got It, thanks. Well I was in, now I'm all in.
Sorry if my post come across ar5y the other day that wasn’t the intention, you actually done me a favour revisiting that interview and why I added substantially more Friday.
My Dad is also an ex Project Manager for ConocoPhillips (retired now) just send him everything to have a look at as he is really, really clued up having worked in O&G all over the world.
Seems interested after our phone call but will ultimately run through everything and feed back to me.
Will update when he does but I cannt see any fault in my figures or the presentation, the fact there is no debt I’m expecting this to really go places. Especially given 44.61% are held by major shareholders. Any volume is going to really drive this up.
Charlie, I'm afraid you're way out with your back of the fag packet calcs. Please refer to SENX's last presentation where they specifically mention netbacks for both oil and gas, and importantly, indicate after tax netbacks. From memory, these work out at something like $10/bl for oil and a much lower figure for the Romanian gas.
I am interested to see your calculations can you please post and supply link to presentation you have extracted your figures from please.
Are you saying the calculation you have is $10 Billion for oil ????