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I assume you listened to the recent investormeet presentation, he clearly says $6m of annualised external cost savings achieved and in place from Jan 2024, so will feed into all future years.
If you weren't aware of this material saving, I assume you need to rework your numbers to ensure you remain balanced
I can't mention every figure, when I post. I was responding to someone who felt 220k auto a quarter was enough to get to break even, which I don't believe is enough, and explained why. They had made some effort to suggest an outcome , so thought they deserved a response on what they may have missed.
I don't believe I'm particularly negative, just looking for a balanced view.
I've listened to all the presentations, and have not heard Martin say $6m annual cost savings next year.
Did he actually say that or is that you coming to a conclusion from other stuff he said? and where was this said?
Be nice if true, and is genuine cost savings such as staff costs, rather than inventory costs.
Brock, I admire the great handle you have on the numbers.
Makes one wonder why when mentioning the drop in Auto one off license revenue you didn't mention the Aviation increase as it doesn't appear to be news to you. Maybe you only like to post negative not as balanced as you like to think.
What's your thoughts on the $6m annualised external cost savings, as that was my main point.
S2020,
You say " My workings are $10m/ 3 + 1 year of tha additional Collins income from the RNS below. Hence the additional $5m.
Perhaps you could share your workings for no increase in Aviation?"
Firstly, I didn't say at any point, that there was no increase in Aviation. You have just made that up.
I really wish you wouldn’t do stuff like that as you lose all credibility, and shows your contempt, for anyone trying to be realistic rather than dancing to your daily ramp.
As for aviation revenue in 2025 I’ve worked it out the same as you but come out with the correct answer rather than your inflated figure of $5m+
By your own figures and the one’s I used, aviation will be $10/3 + $2.65m/2 = $4.655m.
Which isn’t $5m+
First rule of investing, never inflate figures, unless company has repeatedly shown that they beat estimates. Certainly not the case here so far.
We have incomplete information, particularly on licensing. But with the welcome focus on cost control, continued growth in the aftermarket of 5 per cent a quarter or so, tripling royalties from OEMs from 7.6m USD in FY 2023 should get close to cash flow breakeven. There were an average of 159,000 cars on the road during 2023 FY. So once Seeing Machines reaches 480,000 cars on the road they will probably be at, or approaching, that point. With EU regulations about to taje effect, seems feasible to me.
My workings are $10m/ 3 + 1 year of tha additional Collins income from the RNS below. Hence the additional $5m.
Perhaps you could share your workings for no increase in Aviation?
"16 October 2023
Seeing Machines and RTX begin joint development of aviation fatigue detection solution
- Follows signing of exclusive license agreement to jointly develop pioneering eye-tracking solutions for the Aviation industry
- Non-recurring Engineering revenue (NRE) of US$2.65 million payable to Seeing Machines over 2 years covering product development and certification"
There was 750k aviation revenue in 2023.
The Colins license revenue is 10m spread over 3 years, so not sure how you expect 5m+ in 2024.
"For completeness, we had zero Aviation license revenue in FY23, based on the 2 Collins RNS we should have $5m+ in FY24."
Another over -estimmation
Also let's not forget most loss making AIM shares set themselves a target of "making a profit"
SM, lead by 2 of our largest PI shareholders have set a higher bar of "cash profit"
For me, yes license revenue is important, but control of costs will decide when we hit cashfloe breakeven. In the recent interview Martin explained that they had achieved $6m of annualised external cost savings that is in place and flows from Jan 24. That $6m cost savings is the equivalent of 600k cars on the road and has way more impact than if a particular qtr is 220k, 250k or 300k+.
For completeness, we had zero Aviation license revenue in FY23, based on the 2 Collins RNS we should have $5m+ in FY24.
Thanks. Was not clear on licence revenue so accept your point. Still slack from after market. But with dip in cars on the road in last figures reported, next week's figures will be interesting. And my looked for figure will not be far behind yours.
Bonzo,
You seem to have forgotten the 11.5m of magna licence revenue which was in 2023. 2025 only sees 3.75m from magna. That's quite a shortfall to make up.
220,000 won't cut it from auto. Needs to be 300k minimum.
Seen my first car on road with obvious dms illuminator/camera housing on steering column. Shame it was a hyundai Kona. 😞 trying to keep an eye out for cars with systems even if competition numbers must be low in reality as even with a keen interest this is first i have seen parked up and just passing by.
I have had my own go at testing the liklihood of breakeven being achieved during FY 2025. They look good to me.
In FY 2023 revenue was 57m USD, ( roughly half from OEM and half from the aftermarket). The loss was 15m USD so costs 72m USD. Inflation will add say 5 per cent a year in FY 2024 and 2025: taking costs around 77m USD.
Revenue from OEMs will increasingly reflect cars on the road with Seeing Machine tech: 1.5m at Dec 2023. We need 250,000 new cars a quarter to double that by June 2005 (end 2005 FY). As the number is growing most quarters a number published next week of 220,000 or above would be fine.
Doubling royalty and licensing revenue from OEMs would be enough to get revenue above 77m USD enough to get to breakeven. In addition, the after market revenue is growing: by closer to 20 per cent a year. And Seeing Machines gets 10m USD from Collins over three years. So unless the cars on the road figure published next week is hugely disappointing breakeven in 2025 FY seems very achievable to me. DYOR.
"It was a good collaboration of completely disparate groups coming together," John Hwang, who led the ZDX development team for Acura, told Automotive News. Hwang also worked on the Prologue, Honda's first new-era EV that is also a result of the partnership with GM.
Both the ZDX and Prologue use GM's Ultium battery-electric platform and are built at the Detroit automakers' factories – the ZDX in Spring Hill, Tenn., and the Prologue in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico.
Hands Free Cruise
The ZDX Type S offers what Acura calls Hands Free Cruise, which enables hands-free driving on 400,000 miles of roads recognizable to the GPS, with drivers remaining in control and keeping their eyes on the road.
It operates just like GM's Super Cruise, with a green light strip on the steering wheel to signal that the technology is activated. The car steers itself but nudges the driver every so often to stay alert.
Hwang said the technology seems similar to GM's because it is. It's GM's Super Cruise technology, re-badged as Acura's Hands Free Cruise, he said.
Honda is working on its own technology that will be "similar and more advanced" for its next generation of electric vehicles that use the e:Architecture platform.
It will be based on the Traffic Jam Pilot system in the Honda Legend premium sedan, which moves control of the vehicle from the driver to the vehicle under certain circumstances.
https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/2024-acura-zdx-ev-result-strong-general-motors-partnership?utm_campaign=aware:upr:pgv:all:always&utm_content=fed:read&utm_medium=soc-own&utm_source=LinkedIn#Echobox=1714825565-2
Thanks Sandy & See2020
At the moment this is not an exciting space for an investor. They would rather be in oil, helium & mining stocks that they believe will get them huge returns.
This is why it so important for SEE to go all out on their marketing strategy to get eyeballs on our tech & more importantly who our partners are, ie BMW & VW plus Ford & GM.
A good set up KPIs will do wonders for the stock & make us feel we made the right decision to back this company through these testing times. I’m sure some have bailed at 3.9p ?!
Hoping we smash all expectations next week 🙏
Mobileye 2013 was loss making and valued below $1bn
Mobileye 2014, IPO at $5bn
Mobileye 2017, sold to Intel for $15.3m
Mobileye 2024, $24bn
Good post Sandy, this morning I have been looking at Mobileye in comparison to SM. For SM I have used broker and company data and profit is EBITDA not cash profit.
Mobileye at IPO Aug 2014
"The company estimates that its products were installed in about 3.3 million vehicles worldwide as of March 31. By the end of 2014, it expects its technology to be available in 160 car models from 18 original equipment manufacturers worldwide.
Mobileye's revenue doubled to $81.2 million for the year ended Dec. 31. The company swung to a profit of about $20 million in the year from a loss of $53 million a year earlier."
SM at August 2025
"The company estimates that its products were installed in about 4.3 million vehicles worldwide as of June 30. By the end of 2025, it expects its technology to be available in over 100 car models from 13 OEMs.
Seeing Machines revenue increased to $88.3 million for the year ended June 30. The company swung to a profit of about $20 million in the year from a small loss the year before."
What would it feel like to be invested in The Next Big Thing before the investing world realised it was The Next Big Thing?
My guess is that it might be a bit like how we feel right now. In the early days of some of the world's biggest success stories, no one knew for sure they'd succeed. For instance, if you look back at the growing pains of companies like Amazon, Apple, and Arm Holdings (nod to Terry/S2020), the early days of those companies have a lot in common with what we are witnessing right now with Seeing Machines. Early on, most suffered years where their share price did nothing. Back then doubts and hopes would have been voiced in equal measure; brief moments of euphoria would be scarred by disappointment; and tolls would appear, possibly even trying to convince Apple investors that management share buys were (in their distorted version of reality) a sign of impending disaster. So I'm fairly sure things were not plain sailing, even for companies we now recognise as household names.
Our closest comparison to any of these giants would be Arm Holdings. Now I'm not implying that Seeing Machines is the next Arm Holdings (or am I?), but what I will point to is Arm's business model. Can you spot any similarities with that of Seeing Machines? A few minutes research of these two should produce - a smile! Because both their products and business models are strikingly similar. Arm Holdings are the major supplier within their sector; Seeing Machines – leading the way. Arm Holdings license their IP to the world; Seeing Machines - read on...
Licensing your tech to the world only works if the world wants to license your tech. So now, if you're a potential investor, go make a list of the companies supplying the world's auto industries with DMS/OMS, then count how many of those companies use Seeing Machines technology to 'close-the-loop' within their own systems.
Now if we return to the likes of Amazon, Tesla and Google, as previously mentioned, none of them gained immediate success. They were slow burners. Only when the market eventually woke up, screaming, “Here's the next big thing!” did their prices really move. But investors with vision – they were already in.
So here's my prediction for Seeing Machines: as soon as our bottom line shows a profit, we'll get a little tick up in price. Then it'll all go horribly quiet again. The usual suspects will reappear telling us we're all doomed. The share price will slowly sink until – the next set of figures arrive (followed by aviation news?). Then we'll get another up-tick, but this time – heads begin to turn. Outsiders will ask: “What's this DMS thing everyone's on about?” And, “That Australian company... could it be the next Arm Holdings!” (oops, I meant to write: “...it's doing really well.”).
Once that happens, hold on to your hat. Because, as WE'VE known all along, Seeing Machines is - The Next Big Thing!
It’s good to get the publicity but it’s a very basic write up and only focuses on the car market and not the overall picture. It States working with Magna but what about all the other big companies we are working with.
No!!!
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/four-aim-shares-are-potential-bid-targets-ii531587
Seeing Machines (SEE)
Share price: 4.585p
Market cap: £190.6 million
Driving safety technology developer Seeing Machines Ltd
SEE
3.71%
has spent decades perfecting its technology and it has been winning contracts to supply it to automotive manufacturers. Revenues from those contracts have started to build up and the company is moving towards profitability.
Seeing Machines says the number of vehicles on the road using the company’s technology has more than doubled to more than 1.5 million units. The cumulative initial lifetime value of 17 programmes with 11 customers is $366 million, and most of these revenues will be booked by 2028.
The share price is well off its high in 2021, let alone the all-time high in 2018, and the share price trend line is still heading downwards. Yet, the company should reach cash breakeven during the next financial year.
However, loss-making technology companies are not in favour, currently. That is why it has been difficult for the share price to make a consistent recovery despite the contract wins. The forecast loss for the year to June 2024 is nearly A$25 million. Next year the loss could be little more than A$1 million before a move to a pre-tax profit of more than A$17 million in 2025-26. Profit should grow as more contract programmes mature.
Chief executive Paul McGlone has been exercising options, some of which were priced at 5.4p/share and 5.09p/share, which is well above the current share price suggesting he is confident about prospects. The finance director has also been buying shares at an average price of 4.42p each.
An automotive components supplier could find Seeing Machines an attractive purchase now that much of the risk has been taken away due to the contract wins. There is already a collaboration deal with Magna International Inc
MGA
3.20%
to develop occupant monitoring via the rear-view mirror. Canada-based Magna also has a $47.5 million convertible note, which is convertible at 11p a share. Magna is certainly big enough to make the acquisition of Seeing Machines a realistic possibility as results improve.
Baxter,
Your ironic wit is wasted here, try the telegram group, they won't even spot the irony.
Oh oh, one of the rampers has stole Baxter’s phone.
The 2 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Seeing Machines Ltd have a median target of 13.56, with a high estimate of 15.16 and a low estimate of 11.97. The median estimate represents a 195.81% increase from the last price of 4.5
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=SEE:LSE#:~:text=Share%20price%20forecast,the%20last%20price%20of%204.59.