Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Also, does anyone know what % are needed to accept an offer - is it over 50% or something higher?
AB,
What do you think a realistic low-ball bid would be? One that was acceptable to the BOD and PI's?
Crumbs,
If we on the BB have identified the mismatch between the two areas of Scancell (as incorporated ATM) so will others.
if we agree that the Science is not being supported by the Commercial side with the same excellence as the Science then something has to be adjusted.
How about a substantial Pharma taking the whole of Scancell in one (cheap) hit.
Scancell has little leverage in terms of lack of data, a restless and dare I say put upon (private) investor base and a BOD where dynamism seems not to be a key part of the Corporate ethos.
Wouldn't it be just ripe for a takeover at a fraction of the value of the IP?
I can think of many who would see a lowball bid as an attractive (and profitable) way out of the turgid wait that Scancell has become, and who will happily support any cobbled together bid that will keep the IP in one place for (Proper and inspired) development whilst keeping the main Scientific asset (The sainted LD) connected to the IP.
Scancell BOD (in various shapes) have had their opportunity and as it's almost a year since THEY got minted - in terms of sufficient liquidity to further the IP - with as yet precious little news of data to be produced, my guess is that we'll be sold (not for 800p/share) sooner rather than later on a lock stock and barrel basis.
I had been thinking we had 15/16 months, but now I'm not so sure.
Hope I'm wrong but the shorter snapup looks like a good deal for some Biotech with Commercial drive and an ability to put togetrher a deal that looks attractive for the smaller investors!
AIMO
"hopefully, we get to see that vid and or an update tommaz from the OXT event"
Crumbs,
I hope so too. But I find it incredulous that a company holding 1% of the shares is given this sort of preference over us private investors who hold 48% of the company!
Hey ho, looks like the old 'RG is the weakest link theme is being revamped in different form, possibly in the absence of 'they'll have to do a placing soon.'
Lindy won't be resigning all her life's work is here Scancell being basically the vehicle to get that work out into the world and changing peoples lives for the best.... no simple task!...... as we have learnt over the years
The issues here have been discussed loads the best way to look at it is how Vulpes and Redmile have and that one of the biggest hurdles of having significant funds has hindered any kind of rapid progress... we see this changing now with the strengthening of the BOD/management team and hiring of staff and creating a lab in Oxford that will translate Nott's research into real-world trial-ready and beyond products....I'd like to think some pharma observers are impressed as that is the final piece getting pharma deal/s validation and valuation it is how pretty much all the others do it ....
hopefully, we get to see that vid and or an update tommaz from the OXT event
RayPointer
Ref your,
"I simply cannot understand the view of trying to rein in Lindy's talent for making new discoveries. It gives Scancell multiple shots on goal that they simply wouldn't have if they had put all their eggs in one basket. In any case I would guess that Lindy would be dead against such an approach."
But then,
"I do agree though that the management of the company does not match the calibre of the science. Scancell is way behind getting the data that the multiple scientific breakthroughs promise."
But your second point elaborates the first and so supports the concept that the Science has been let down by the Business.
Hence my comment,
"I wonder what would happen if LD were to resign?" which is an event I hope (and do not expect) to see, but it would be a logical extension of the two passages above with which you agree.
Back to waiting for some news (hopefully good and soon)!
AIMO
@keiny "I’d prefer a TO tbh as it’s simple, but may not achieve the most value if a number of licenses were to be agreed instead. Anyway GLA"
Glad I'm not the only one who' thinks this!
I simply cannot understand the view of trying to rein in Lindy's talent for making new discoveries. It gives Scancell multiple shots on goal that they simply wouldn't have if they had put all their eggs in one basket. In any case I would guess that Lindy would be dead against such an approach.
When you have a scientist of Lindy's calibre you simply have to let her go where the science takes her. She doesn't demand expenditure on expensive equipment but instead manages to borrow resources from her University and also gets research on the cheap by commissioning University PhD programs.
But who could have predicted that it took so long for the FDA to approve the Ichor device?
I do agree though that the management of the company does not match the calibre of the science. Scancell is way behind getting the data that the multiple scientific breakthroughs promise.
It was the potential size of the IP that attracted investment from Vulpes and Redmile having completed scientific due diligence. So the approach of not putting a break on the research has attracted a good level of funding and put Scancell in a great position to finally start accumulating that all important trial data.
Looks like somebody has decided to go to new pastures. Sell of 175k shares is not anything to concern us but we have not really seen a sell off of that size for a good while.
It is frustrating, we are at the eleventh hour and the news we want to hear is so close. I'm holding tighter than than a Matt Hanc**k clandestine clinch to my shares.
"The Science will come good"
Chester.
Yeah agree with you Violin… we’ve been used as required and even then PR and Comms weren’t the best. I still hope to see a £1+ sp here so I’ll be sticking it out to at least the first commercial deal of substance to assess where it values things, and decide to hold, reduce or fully sell out. I’d prefer a TO tbh as it’s simple, but may not achieve the most value if a number of licenses were to be agreed instead. Anyway GLA
I am as frustrated as many regarding being kept informed. Let's face it regarding updates and communication....we original investors may have held some relevance to the BOD of SCLP as they tapped us for regular funding to keep the lights on.... but no longer. Now we can only ride the coat tails of Redmile and Vulps. They both control and have the ear of the company. Looking at their respective track record I'm happy to accept my low status and ride along for another 18 months and then it really is stick or twist !
RayPointer
I would suggest that Prof. Durrant is very very good at research and developing new "Products".
The problem seems to be that she is much better at doing that than the rest of the BOD at bringing those new ideas out of the laboratory.
If when you say "But how is increasing the IP a problem?" it certainly was years ago when the entire business plan for Scancell was torpedoed by Moditope. I didn't raise this, you did.
IF (and all in hindsight) Moditope had not been part of the Scancell IP the original business plan would have been completed years ago ie Immunobody would (or would not )have been sold and Moditope could have formed the basis of a new company which would have been focussed on that platform.
I can't say that things would have turned out differently but neither can anyone not say that Moditope might already be developed and (since 2012) there would have been a great deal of time to have held trials which would not have been "shelved" due to lack of funds such as they have with SCLP.
So yes, in my view the BOD is failing the R and D and even more items added to the IP list here would not be good, unless something gets some cash in and then the BOD can be strengthened to actiually MOVE one of our wondrous platforms towards getting the Shareholders a return rather than merely stoking the hopes. and indulging the desire for more and more unproven (by trials) IP.
Anyway, there's effectively a line in the sand already so best they address what we have rather than complicating things with "more IP". I wonder whether the increase in IP has been part of the reason that RG was clever enough to avoid selling the company years ago?
It seems completely reasonable to say that NO Data = No commercialisation (unless we get sold for a relative pittance as a "punt" by a Pharma) or worse a hedge fund.
I wonder what would happen if LD were to resign?
However we can all wait patiently and see. Let's hope it works out as everyone here seems to think it will. I still live in hope.
AIMO
Ray,
Increasing the IP isn't a problem, only if it distracts attention/focus away from priority tasks.
Moon,
I'm not suggesting the top three are run in series at all - they should be run in parallel, possibly slightly staggered?
Scancell are doing the trials going to get the data. They are doing exactly what they should be doing IMO.
They are, to some extent, at the mercy of the trials processes and regulations, we just have to be patient :)
Focus is all well and good, but running 3 trials in series would be a disaster as trials take so long - far better to run 3 in parallel surely? They shouldn't impact on one another.
I am sure Redmile and the other large investors have given the same feedback as many here have, but right now, they are actually doing it!
I agree that the absolute focus of the development team is to get the 3 trials going and produce some data.
But how is increasing the IP a problem?
Ray,
Of course it's valid - it's about FOCUS. You have to prioritise on the things that you can do best/quickest/within budget.
The problem is Scancell are far better at scientific research than they are at commercialisation. This means, they will be constantly discovering new distractions and could well end up not bringing any of them to fruition.
My builder had it right. He bought an old farm and outbuilding. He built a barn conversion and sold it at cost (recouping some of the land spend). He used the money to build a second house and sold it at a small profit. He then build four more barn conversions and made good money (mine being one of them!)
I'm not suggesting for one moment that anyone sits twiddling their thumbs - let them get on with it, but the management and research priority and FOCUS has to be on commercialising SOMETHING.
What we need is a Steve Jobs and CH isn't one.
Ruck
Would you have Lindy and her research team twiddling their thumbs before data is produced from the 3 trials?
Those 3 trials are now with the development team.
The comparison to Apple in not valid.
Crumbs,
I agree about the huge addition to the IP. But could this be the problem?
I have used this example before, but it is apt I think:
When Steve Jobs went back to Apple, they were on their knees. They had 150 active projects on the go. He trimmed that down to three - iPod, iPad and iPhone. The rest, as they say is history.
I'd be putting the focus on
SCOV1/2
SCIB1 Combo
MODI1
Either or any of the above has the potential to generate interest and cash in order to pursue everything else.
imo
Ruck Rover
i agree, but rather more simply put the trial results will provide the data that will (or will not) prove the IP.
So my question to the BOD is simply,
"When do you think we will have one or more trials underway?"
It would be great if we the shareholders (and owners of the company) could be let in on the secret.
I'm happy to continue to take the risk, BUT it seems to me that we have around sixteen months for results, data and some indication of the likely outcome as a result of the Financial structure put in place last year.
Tempus fugit.
AIMO
Ruck can only agree about the frustration part and poor comms and I'm sure that goes for most if not all LTHs and even more recent ones too .....
There certainly has been a huge addition to IP since 2015..... Can't be bothered listing it all but just AvidiMab alone for example......
Again the most heartening thing is since Lindy finally getting decent funds from redmile the company is being built up quite literally and this to me is the most important factor,... I think berm has written about the significance of the Oxford lab and that can't be overstated..... we have our unicorn neighbours there Adaptimmue and Immunocore... both of whom I would not invest in myself but scancells IP potential is far far far more than those to my mind which is where the disconnect between IP and SP becomes most tantalising as the rewards could be huge and rather rapid on real tech valuations coming in..... that is the final missing piece the validation of commercial pharma deal/s arriving I like to think they are now more likely due to the company becoming just a novel research uni spin out into a proper product producing Oxford-based biotech....The journey has been a long one lol but let us all hope 2015 is well and truly in the past now for scancell and us :)
Max,
As crumbs has pointed out, you cannot compare the SP now to what it was during 2015. Firstly, a year is a long time and during 2015 the SP ranged between 12p and 38p with an average of 26p. Secondly, the number of shares in issue was a quarter of what it is today, so the 26p average in 2015 if you did a like for like comparison would be 6.5p.
The mcap in 2015 ranged from £27M to £86M. The mcap today is £167M.
Having said that, many of us share your frustration with the lack of communication and lack of progress in terms of actual clinic trials and data. Quadrupling the shares in issue whilst only doubling the market capitalisation doesn't sound like good shareholder value - your shares are only worth half what they would have been worth in 2015. On the other hand, we are now pretty well funded so perhaps the risk is slightly lower. 50% of something is worth a heck of a lot more than 100% of nothing. I note people using the term "de-risked" - this is wrong. No share is risk free, reduced risk maybe.
Over the past six years there has undoubtedly been an increase in IP. I don't think the full value of this is reflected in the SP and I don't think it will until we get some proper news and some trial data.
Or an easy tiger :)
I would prefer a lion to a unicorn. LoL
what was the mcap in 2015?
It takes IP building to create a bio unicorn (£1billion mcap) and the IP is here now the infrastructure of building the company up to be a capable unicorn is also happening (Oxford Labs) lots of new staff and board strengthening....
All the pieces are now in place for scancell to become a UK biotech unicorn.... Covidity could be the fast track but moditope is the cherry.... with AvidiMab a luxurious icing :)
I'd hate to miss the commercial action arriving.... Redmile are not stupid they have recognised the opportunity here.