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On the 3rd Nov last year, they put out a trading update stating sales to the end of Dec would £8.6m, when it came to the trading update on 8th Jan, the CEO reported £8.3m for the year. The year end was only 6/7 weeks away and they still got it wrong, that to me smacks of a CEO and Chairman that are not in touch with the business, or blind to the issues.
With the orderbook they have this business and the SP should be flying.
Time for a new CEO and Chairman in my view.
Yes, I agree with all 3 of those points FTM. But it did seem - or at least, I hoped - that these were already in the share price and that a floor had been put under things when the equity and bank fundraisings were completed successfully. Time will tell but I don't really like the way things are heading south again now.
(1) Institutional selling leads to market maker shenanigans (2) Lack of newsflow (3) Doubts over calibre of CEO
From an outside source it seem like an institution selling. Not 100% though
I felt quite optimistic when I subscribed for extra SCE shares at the recent 10p offer price and the shares then held firm around 11p for a week or so. But since then they have been drifting down and today are not much above 8p. I'm not sure whether to sell and cut my losses or ride things out. Any idea why the shares are so weak currently? Is more bad news on the way?
Hi Jman89, this is the key part of the announcement to understand:
The Options vest at the third anniversary of grant if the following vesting requirements are met:
· EBITDA per share between 3.34 pence (10.5 % of the award) and 4.00 pence per share (30% of the award). This is based on achieving between £12.5m EBITDA and £15m EBITDA in the year to 31 December 2026
· Installation of realisable £75m sales capacity (30% of the award)
· Share price above 60p on a VWAP basis for the 20 days prior to the vesting date (20% of the award)
· A commercially confidential strategic milestone providing additional technical excellence, aimed at maintaining the Company's technical leadership in the marketplace (20% of the award)
The vesting criteria are independent of each other, albeit clearly linked if the separate criteria are to be achieved.
Hope that helps.
Just a rookie here. Is the lates update means CEO, CFO and COO were awarded of free shares for them or it’s option to buy at 10.98p per share? Sounds good in both cases anyway for not achieving sales target.
They stated they needed £8m, but any delays or further issues around ramp up ( which given the issues they've had have been just on the existing ops at the current site, before they are even at Phase 2 ) seems inevitable. How long do we think £m will last - I dont know, but look at the burn involved to sort out current issues and it isnt comforting analysis.
You have kind of answered my point. Johnson being unaware of how just weak the ops management of the business was & how underpowered and miles off target the finance function was, goes right to the heart of the leadership issue. If he was unaware of these things he just cant be left in charge of the next crucial phase of development. And it is not as if he has mended his ways; the insistence they'd hit £8.6m and they didn't. I would love to be sitting in the boardroom and watching the interactions.
Fevertreeman
Despite everything within 2023, I suspect it has been an incredibly valuable learning curve , providing a lot of what they now need.....so as you say a good opportunity to get properly functioning
what do you think the expense will be to
"delivering further operational improvements, capacity installation to remove potential single points of failure, upgrading internal manufacturing processes and further strengthening operational management and supervision "
any thoughts on a figure ?
Fevertreeman
As I said previously.I just think Johnson has had too much on his plate and things got missed ...and they were just not aware of how weak the overall team was,for what they need to achieve ...the scaling up is a big ask, overall.
" further strengthening operational management and supervision" shows they didn't have the depth of squad to win the Premier as it were ..which is what they need,given the potential for repeat orders and planned growth
Wise words, but what does that tell you about Johnson's ability to lead this company from the current valley to the sunny uplands and beyond.
What we've seen unfold most acutely over the last 18 months is that classic growth company situation with all the focus on winning customers, proving up the product, whilst hoping that they can successfully retrofit the systems and people needed (management, training & financial) without the wheels falling off or any one noticing. it didnt work and we are where we are. Add gnerous doses of bloody-mindedness , denial, and naivete from Bundred & Johnson and all the lements came together.
On a more optimistic note because I am a big believer in the tech, Board now has opportunity to reset things , clear the air, and get this company functioning as a grown-up plc. COO and CFO joining have started that process, but helluva long way to go frankly. If they can do this they have a fighting chance of remaining independent but I think odds are company gets taken out.....
Some useful Update information passed on I think
My main issue is this
" focus remains on delivering further operational improvements, capacity installation to remove potential single points of failure, upgrading internal manufacturing processes and further strengthening operational management and supervision."
and I say that because it shows to me there is still quite some work to be done to get things "firmly" on track ....but it does show that somewhere ..whether that is Sneller, other key investors or even the new COO ...individuals seem to have had to highlight a "to do" list which I don't believe Johnson would have been able to do himself
As has been said repeatedly the lack of that COO and the sense of firefighting for a while was a set back ..and I still don't think they are fully through sorting what needs to be done ... although they now clearly seem to know
Well you'd imagine correctly (and less of the supercilious tone). I'd venture that Sneller like most of us was keen to average down, and been so heavily exposed it won't have been pleasant. Whilst he will be updated by management as a top 10 shareholder and was no doubt taken over the wall ahead of the placing, dont assume he is any better placed than the rest of us about the day to day management of the company.
I would imagine that lines of communication between the board and Richard Sneller are very much open if you look at (a) how much he was invested before the placing, and (b) how much he invested during the placing.
Clearly he was sufficiently satisfied to not only retain his holding but to increase it. He has a long-term view, likes what he sees, and doesn't need his hand held like a nervous PI on the Internet.
I'm just saying were actual sales to match (or indeed get anywhere near) projected capacity we'd all be quids in and very happy very quickly! Sure unlikely but I'm looking forward to details of these new contracts and hopefully rapid scale up from here. I didn't suggest the £50m/£75m are sales projections, you've misread that.
Reading the news today I reckon some selling has been done in error. For those investors who were unsuccessful with their last placing, owing to poor Royal Mail post probably, now is just as good a cause, if not better to invest in SCE. Could become a multi-bagger for patient investors. I liked some positivity in their news post.
Bundred is not the man to chair this company as what is needed is some honest conversations and self-examination, and that is clearly not going to happen while he is chair supposedly overseeing strategy, holding KJ and Maddicks to account and properly representing owners' (i.e. shareholders ) interests.
Too bloody right! If I were Richard sneller, I'd be on the phone to our useless chairman demanding an explanation.
Hi fevertreeman, as you know I'm not in the same place that you are in terms of calling for heads to roll but I do think it's interesting that sales were £1m average in Nov and Dec. People might say 'oh well it's the holidays so Dec wasn't a full month' but if I was Johnson, Maddock and Easton I'd have done pretty much whatever it took to hit £8.6m even if it meant incentivising staff to work over the holidays. This suggests to me that they couldn't produce at more than £1m per month rather than that they chose not to, and that is a concern.
OK flundra, glad you know that. It's just very different to what your post said, that's all.
Damay obviously it's capacity we all know that. It's encouraging to see this projected expansion particularly in view of the anticipated new contract awards. Looks to be going in the right direction and I'd hope for rapid scale up from here.
STL, that's my thinking too, and I'm taking it to mean that SCE is still optimising the outstanding issues.
As frustrating as these repeated speedbumps have been as an investor, it sounds like SCE are much more forthcoming with their actual clients, who are okay with the timescales.
The investment case is so compelling, and the risk/reward profile at these prices is fantastic, imo.
Another lousy display of leadership from Bundred & Johnson, who continue to prove (a) their complete lack of understanding about how the public markets operate and their complete disregard for their own investors. This Tau was hugely important in setting the right tone and restoring some faith in the management and board. It did neither! Bundred has to Look, once again operationally one can’t believe a word they say!
In the teeth of an existential crisis that entailed investors bailing out the company, Bundred & Johnson went on record repeatedly stating they were on target to hit £8.3m YE, blustering about Oct being best month ever at £1m.
Come today’s TU, they miss that target & give no apology or explanation, leaving us all wondering whether any forecasts they make can be trusted. Whilst 300k in lost production is small vs potential, it is the principal that is at stake here with 2 individuals who clearly just make stuff up!
If they can’t get these forecasting right god help us when we get to £75m potential capacity So they basically flat lined into year end, blithely missing their own target, waved 2 fingers at s/holders in the process .
As of that’s not enough, then there’s the weasly PR spinners wording around “No new technical problems have arisen in recent months ”, effectively signalling that existing technical problems persist as do “ potential points of failure” Johnson and new FD need to be hauled over the coals for this ….not good enough!!!!
Bottom line - despite all the s*** Bundred &Johnon have put s/holders thro in last 18 mnths they still cant to be trusted and that is why in the absence of any evidence eto the contrary, the share price will continue to languish.
Flundra, you misunderstand. The references to £50m and £75m are about sales CAPACITY, not sales (albeit the contracts won take us to those levels but in later years). Guidance for this year is £23m sales and that looks bullish to me.