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I'd have no interest in Andrew Knott being replaced at or near this time.
I agree that SAVP is financially well sheltered from any global economic mess that may easily arise in the next few months.. but the movement of the s/p is clearly detached from that.
I agree that Niger farm out news is unlikely this side of summer.
Macro wise, I think there is far too much oil and gas live or easily/quickly brought live in the world for the short and medium term even in a steadily growing demand scenario, not to mind a declining one.. and OPEC+ efforts to keep supply down is crucial to Oil prices not being much lower generally and I think they're doing a pretty good job so far, but have a crucial next output revision decision process now in process
My worst case scenario for this s/p in the next 3 months is 7.5p and my best case is 20p
Thank you, Risky. Yes, that was the article I was referring to. I had no intention of putting it on this board, and I sold up at considerable loss as soon as I read it.
In my view SAVP must now provide a full RNS on this matter so that all shareholders are properly informed as to the current situation.
Good job someone on here is intelligent enough to be investing in this market. All information in Dec ops update.
AF, I don't know if HS is referring to that article in The Cable which is a paper that backs the government ....
I raised that same Cable article with Jessica when it was published on 3rd December and I am satisfied by what was said to me Savannah's NOMAD had seen evidence to support the RNS about $190m of cash collections expected before year end.
There was a big delay in Nigerian government funds being distributed to the power station operators in 2019 and the delay arose because of the Presidential elections, and then the new funding package needed approval by the Nigerian Senate in its budget for 2020. The budget was signed on 5th December.
I believe from other articles that distributions were made within days and that Accugas has received all its outstanding cash.
I am not worrying NOW about historical invoices being paid because the partial risk guarantee being in place was effective although it was not called on.
Does anyone know what the latest is re the default ?
Is it still active or have accugas been paid ?
I’ll be amazed if we get imminent Niger farm out. The world is grinding to a halt, travel restricted, new finance frozen and potential farm in partners will be sitting on their hands watching the oil price.
I’m afraid that patience is required. The good news is that Nigeria is predominantly gas revenue and we are therefore to some extent protected from oil price.
You would have thought the share price is now grossly oversold even factoring in the above but I’ve never been any good at calling the bottom!
Now back to watching the Baker Hughes US Shale rig count weekly updates. Oil demand has temporarily fallen off a cliff but assuming we are over the worst of CV within 3 - 4 months without too much collateral damage (trashed economies) , the destruction to medium term supply likely to be even greater.
Hs, you can't say that without saying where the article is or what it's about? I'm guessing it's about the government's payment assurance facility.
Itsriskythat - no criticism of you, but you have missed a key article on the internet - one that a number of shareholders and bondholders most likely have not.
.....Atm Andrew Knott seems to be a specialist in disappointment. Well over 3 months since 7 completion, and STILL no admission document, no news on debt finance, or Niger.I am prepared to give him this quarter ie end of march....
Quote from AK in the retail investor call 21st November:
“ First oil and possible tie in with a partner in H1 if the potential partners can sharpen their pencils.”
IMO It is also clear from the following written reply's to Agadem’s questions to IR that we will not get an update on Niger until either the positive or negative conclusion of JV negotiations.
Yes, the intention is still to introduce a partner. The Company has not given specific guidance on the likely timing of this.
The Niger CPR is being progressed as previously discussed and is expected to be published in due course.
The Company anticipates providing an update on its Niger plans alongside the publication of the Niger CPR.
Perhaps the admission document and debt restructuring delays are also linked.
Paradoxically if we do get an RNS with Niger CPR etc without confirmation of a JV it could be concluded that SAVP cannot attract a partner on acceptable terms.
HS, that's my experience over the past year of following the Nigerian news on Accugas
IRT - '...Savannah have navigated these issues successfully during 2019 not least because of the partial risk guarantee, which has worked well..... So there's no need to rely on a company RNS to get a handle on how things are for the Accugas business currently and how it should pan out going forward into 2020.'
Hmm?
The trade is tagged XOFF, which is an OTC trade, on here you will just see it as an O trade, you can see the trades if you look at the actual London stock exchange site or on live price software, depending on who/if you use.
Some good posting here in the last few days. Most notably from Zengas and Michu.
Both making good assessments on future share price movements.
I my opinion I can agree with both cases.
I think the £2 plus predictions here could be achieved.
If for example in 2 years most of the debt is payed off, 200mbls is proved up in Niger ( currently 50mbls ), and we are generating over $200 million FCF from Nigeria then I could see it as a strong possibility.
The 200mbls from Niger is easy achievable. Even if valued at half the projected $6 per barrel it equates to $600m worth, or £467million.
Just this is worth around 46p on the share price.
This is not even including Nigeria !
So from this very achievable, very discounted example I can see the huge upside here.
Would I still be invested at £2 ish ? No chance!
My average is currently around 22p, and that was only achived by averaging down last summer.
If we reach mid thirties I will probably sell half of my holdings here, mainly due to the fact of being totally fatigued being invested in this company.
Atm Andrew Knott seems to be a specialist in disappointment. Well over 3 months since 7 completion, and STILL no admission document, no news on debt finance, or Niger.
I am prepared to give him this quarter ie end of march. But if nothing positive is announced by then, I think we should be looking for a new CEO. With the assets we have there must be some very experienced executives in the Oil / Gas sector that could create decent shareholder value here. And probably on half of what Andrew Knott is paying himself. It's about time SAVP out performed the sector. Maybe new blood / fresh ideas are required
Apologies for any typos. Sent via mobile.
A number of the larger trades today were off the counter - they were not put through Aim or any other exchange, it was one ii to another, so not a buy or sell as they never entered the market.
Imo all those trades today at 12.50p or less were sells, I dipped in a few times today to buy and could not get 12.50. Those trades have moved to someone and it’s just a tidy up. I mean 2x364384, what sort of number is that. It’s no way a buy, you can’t have NT buy for 50k one minute and then all those large buys. They are ‘funny money’ sells just moving stock around. Everyone apart from the PI’s are aware what is happening that is why imo there is radio silence and no institutional sell off. I think it’s about as safe as it gets to add at this level and if you ca, keep some powder dry just in case.
Trek
For February 2.5m shares were ‘ bought back’ as the stock on loan reduced - again this should move SP higher, but its in tight control. Positive is no one is taking out shorts on Savp and as we know iis are increasing. Its frustrating, but for the battle weary patient, rewards are high from this level.
Lets hope its over soon, probably timed to link in with Results or news or both
Exactly, the volume suggests liquidity on the sell side, but these are off exchange deals, we presume from note holder to ii concert party. They of course want to screw the note holder to the lowest price and put off any buying on the exchange. But once its over....
the market makers probably are given the large trades are OTC.
Struggle to buy in 50k chunks though.
Looks like there are buyers at this level, but not so many sellers.
BB
close the door on your way out.
Seems even the Market Makers have lost interest here !!
Sold my holdings today and out of this nightmare completely now. Good luck all - u are going to need it
I'm really disappointed with myself in the way I've played this bet so far but I feel patience AND a low average -eg 15 to 20p range - can hopefully still get me out of a hole here, in due course.
But in this very difficult macro environment and especially as long as a meaningful seller(s) still has ammo even good micro news seems to have little meaningful impact generally in this sector currently..eg PPC recently.. truly exceptional news maybe different granted, eg a great farm out in Niger announced here.. but in this environment such actual deal completions are much harder etc.. and so I generally look more and more at macro than micro.. and that's all about this corona virus in the coming few months, I expect (btw Kalan I fully understand your logic and AIM generally very very often gives you a chance to get in lower again sometime in the future :-))
I guess the coronavirus would have to spiral fairly further badly from here and global markets take a say 10% to 15% hit from here for this s/p to go to single figures...I guess -aka hope - that level corona spiral still won't happen and this s/p going into single figures probably won't happen either ..but I'd still put the chances of a single figures s/p here as moderate....
So while I badly feel the need to meaningfully top up here now I'm going to try hard to stick with my previous plan (next minor top up at 11p.. major top up only if this goes to single figures.. and more major again if it goes under 8.5p....hopefully it doesn't go to 11p not to mind lower, obviously)