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I find your regular contact with IR deeply unethical from SAVE's side. I recall you "having a feeling things would go quiet" for a while and selling a portion of your holding - and no dobt vice versa.. It stinks. The company is a joke allowing snides to gain an advantage.
The last thing I’d want would be issuing equity unless it was at a significant premium to 26.35p. I would not be adverse to issuing Petronas 20% of our company in shares as a part payment for the balance we owe from the $1.25bn - economic interest payment. Let’s say the balancing payment at deal closure is $400m.
With 1.412bn shares fully diluted we would need to issue Petronas with 353m shares giving us a new shares in issue number of 1.765bn. For the 353m shares I would want to see a minimum of 40p which is 50.4c @ fx 1.26. This would equate to $178m coming of the $400m leaving $222m to be paid for from future production.
On another note I was looking through all my transactions on SAVE while by yet pool this afternoon. I hold them in various accounts and what a crazy trip I have been on:-
First purchase 42p July 2015
Continued to buy all the way down with my lowest buy price 8p in March 2020
Bought well over half my holding sub 10p
Continued to by all the way up and got spiked in June 2022 @ 40p
Continued to buy all the way down to Nov 2022
Bought 1m in the 23’s in Nov 2022 anticipating a decent rise upon Chad closure
God knows what we will re-emerge at and to be honest, the way I feel at the moment, I’d be more than happy if we came back at 26.35p. Yes this would be disappointing after all we have hoped for, but I still do fear coming back in the teens and having to wait a few more years before true value is realised. However, the recent deal in Nigeria does give me some comfort and let’s all hope we see a descent rise this year due to what we could possibly achieve in Niger. On top of those, the ICC cases and debt restructure could give significant leg-ups if and when we see positive outcomes on them both.
If we invited Petronas to become shareholders in the enlarged group of Savannah could it convince SS government in approving the transaction they will still get the comfort that they have Petronas still operating albeit through Savannah shareholding. Perhaps we could offer Petronas 20-25% of the enlarged share capital. I brought this point as I saw that the recent deal announced by Ithaca will see eni take an enlarged share capital in Ithaca and become a major shareholder on completion.
https://www.ft.com/content/ba599bb2-dd8e-4289-a80e-8a4d40ae6395
If the economics still made sense than it wouldn’t be a bad outcome although anything above 20-25% would reduce value enhancement for existing shareholders
The argument for approval at the moment could be that low oil exports and pipeline disruption and government coffers running dry could tempt approval from government if the exit tax or approval fees are tasty and high $100 - $200m dollars and could tempt the government into approval when they are struggling to pay salaries at the moment
Overall I am pleased with the rns for one main reason as it also a window for Q1 2024 update to land by 2 week of April as per usual timelines which will allow for a broader update on the business particularly interested to see plans on Niger being strongly articulated, also interesting to see how the accugas business is performing and if we are still growing our volumes by double percentage production. I always maintained in any circumstance or whatever is the outcome of SS I wanted to come back after the full year results of 2023. So I will be supportive of a further extension until mid June and come to market post full year 2023 results.
As for the rns last week I believe it’s probably to intended to make public the difficulties in completing the South Sudan deal I.e outing the South Sudan investment environment as a difficult place for
Investments. I believe if savannah think they have completed all there workstreams and the only thing now outstanding is government approvals than they are hoping a public statement will shame the government into action, especially with the South Sudan oil conference in June 2024, it could be savannah way of saying to the government you are your own stumbling block to approvals and a public statement could pressure South Sudan government and make it look bad especially when they are also looking to attract investments.
As for deals I believe Andrew should pursue an oil acquisition in Nigeria and if he can land another prior to re-listing that would be a bonus. Even a small acquisition of 10,000 Bopd and 50 million in 2p reserves would take us another level.
I want to remain optimistic on progress and closing of SS but I remain skeptical and believe if a rns does provide more detail next week it would likely be a public outing on the SS approval inaction more than anything else. I for one like all want a positive outcome on SS but let’s see the detail behind the detail that Savannah intend to provide.
The RNS next week could be as strong as savannnah have completed all work streams and if they don’t get approval in the next 6 weeks I.e by 17th May we will terminate the deal and come back to market it could be the final ultimatum to the SS government and a public outing
One more:
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1774026440956072009?s=20
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1773794529268695184
Whilst I'm posting, I'll comment that I do not believe that shareholders will be the intended audience for next week's RNS. But we are probably close to the edge of some sort of denouement.
Happy Easter, everyone.
I'm in a happier mood on this share today...... and very hopefully I'll be staying in said happier mood after:
''The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.''
Happy Easter All
Any of you troops who follow the above, this link may be of interest:
https://abokiforex.app
Scroll down to get the official CBN rates
Almost time for me to come out of hibernation 🥱
I forgot to boast that I’m right again it’s extended. I’m clever 😄 does sound positive can’t wait for more news next week. Log off now. See you soon after Easter. Zengas charge up your battery as it looks we need your write-ups soon.
Feeling positive. Excited to see what lies in store over coming weeks. Home straight indeed (fingers crossed!).
Well I've never been one to follow the crowd so I'll be putting my phone to one side and taking the day off to enjoy a nice glass of malbec, with a few salted peanuts and a nice chicken balti. Looks like this might actually be approaching the home straight! Will be interesting to read the update next week.
What day is May 17th on 2024?
National days on Fri May 17th, 2024
It's World Telecommunications Day, National Work From Home Day, National Pinot Grigio Day, National Walnut Day, National Pizza Party Day… and much more!
17 May rather odd. I guess 7 weeks. But generally in the past is by month end. Let’s hope next week’s rns is music to our ears. Chat soon everyone.
RNS Number : 7808I
Savannah Energy Plc
28 March 2024
28 March 2024
Savannah Energy PLC
("Savannah" or "the Company")
South Sudan Acquisition Update
Further to the Company's announcement on 1 February 2024, the Company confirms that it remains suspended from trading on AIM, with a revised cancellation date of 17 May 2024, whilst it continues to advance the various workstreams, including receipt of in-country approvals, required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan.
The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.
For further information, please refer to the Company's website www.savannah-energy.com or contact:
Savannah Energy +44 (0) 20 3817 9844
Andrew Knott, CEO
Nick Beattie, CFO
Sally Marshak, Head of IR & Communications
South Sudan Acquisition Update
Further to the Company's announcement on 1 February 2024, the Company confirms that it remains suspended from trading on AIM, with a revised cancellation date of 17 May 2024, whilst it continues to advance the various workstreams, including receipt of in-country approvals, required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan.
The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.
Sadly I sort of agree. I felt that end of last year. Let’s hope we are both so wrong.
C’est la vie. I find the French friendlier than the Brits. You too have a great Easter 🐣
Hello Tier,
If an extension would bring a positive conclusion, I would also have no objection. However, in my view, if it had to happen it would have been done by now, hence my saying that we have waited long enough.
I hope that by saying so it would jinx the process and I will be proven wrong and Savannah will get Juba’s approval.
On a different note, I wish you a happy Easter break amongst those crazy French. Either they find Brits exotic and they love them or they just abhor them. Farm animals are the nicest amongst that lot 😉
Tout cela dit avec une pointe de sarcasme et ironie.
All the best, 🐸
They bought it as they want a ‘proper farm house’. You just go there to relax as such. Haven’t been for the past year as I was practically in the States for 4 months on and off and month and half in Asia. Near the beach always so crowded but it’s good vibe. Yours sounds busy and interesting.
La Vendee. You tend to get much more extreme weather over there these past 10 years.
The SW has become the hottest region of France.
Enjoy the trip.
Near La Chaume.
Tier
Where's the farmhouse ?
Think it’ll be another extension which I have no objection to.. of course as long as we’ll get it at the end. Enjoy your Easter and eggs; for me it’s a good break from work to the farmhouse in France.
A year on from - 'Deals are made here' !
All the excitement then and talks about AK being an important speaker at South Sudan Oil & Power Conference 14-16 June 2023, and from some quarters a sure indication, and expectation, of an approval by Juba for our acquisition of Petronas' interests therein, as a demonstration that they meant business and that indeed “deals are made there” - their conference slogan.
So far, that goes very well… or perhaps not at all !
If nothing happens shortly, would it not be the time to withdraw from the deal as gracefully as possible.
No one within SAVE would loose face and it would allow it to concentrate where we are welcome.
If South Soudan fails, I do not want to read RockyRide's post(s) oozing with unspoken disappointment as in the distant past in different circumstances, under another incarnation.
Disappointment(s) I incidentally shared. Believe me he and us all deserve better.
Regardless, 89p is going to be and even more as per Zengas’ superb analyses. But the sure way to know is to resume trading.
All in my view.
GLA
🐸