Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Perhaps if we can agree with chad to Compensate at a discounted amount for chad Doba field, whilst accepting our share in Cotco Separately would be a good outcome for all parties.
I believe someone posted a few weeks ago that SNH were talking to gran tierra about a partnership in Doba oil fields so it is definitely clear that they probably realise that they definitely need a partner to help them run the field as they clearly feel they will struggle to maximise the field otherwise.
We Know that Chad has elections next month on 6th May so perhaps they might take a different view once Deby has consolidated his power, perhaps for the time being he needed to appear with Chad first mentality to gain popularity but could pivot after he secures his win.
Rocky - On your question on Cotco revenues my understanding is that the funds still continue to go into and being held under the Citi Gabon account, which is currently under restriction, the only funds allowed to be paid out the account are for operational purposes, but any dividend payments of shareholders i.e savannah being one of them is currently restricted.
Citi Bank did appeal this last year and there was a hearing in January 2024. I believe our lawyers argued that the stay order should be in place till until the merit of the overall dispute for the Doba fields is concluded in Chad as that should help determine the merit in which Savannah Cotco holding based on the Chad Doba field outcomes. So in essence everything is tied together.
https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca2/23-1295
Z - as ever that’s a brilliant post and obviously you demonstrate great forward thinking. I don’t recollect reading your post b fore but at least I’ve not dreamt it and was on the right track with my thinking. It was the re-read of the SCAP note that made me think something could be bubbling along in the background.
Will be definitely disappointing that when we eventually get a fulsome update that there is not at least one really nice piece of big news for us to take it.
Am getting more positive about a decent SP even without SS when we resume trading. I’ll be very disappointed if we come back at anything less than 30p.
RR.
I posted this on the 8/3 - 2 weeks before the Sinopec deal with Save in Stubb Creek.
‘With Sinopec after 4 adjacent Agadem blocks, surely it could be an attractive deal to do something with us. Perhaps a swap on their 30+ million boe 2C gas at Stubb Creek and a bit more in exchange for onward 50% cost of drilling etc. Stubb Creek would convert to 2P once we had a sanctioned development plan as in Niger.’
Also since then, I posted that the Niger govt was taking the blocks that Sinopec were after in Agadem which were adjacent to our blocks.
My assumption was if they were seriously interested in Agadem with the government taking those blocks, then an obvious choice would be to do a deal with us given we were already partners on Stubb Creek. I was expecting this could come to the fore but as always a wait and see approach.
Thanks very much Sinopec for the $40m discount you gave us for your interests in Stubb Creek. If the truth be known it’s quite a lot more than that as the $40m was only based on $70 Brent.
But as a thank you, we’ll bring you into our Niger PSC’s and reciprocate the discount you gave us to what you pay for a share of our ARB acreage.
Remember where you heard this first…
Absolutely correct on the fact that the shares were suspended prior to trading on 12th December 2022.
The rns was a 7am early bird special, announcing the SPA for the Petronas South Sudan assets, with a suspension commencing at 7.30 am, before market opening.
What I’d really like to know (and I can’t find out as IR will not comment on it) is how much revenue has been generated from Doba oil and TOTco / COTCo transportation costs (dividends) and where it currently sits? If it is all being held in trust, there must be quite a huge figure being held and ready to be paid out on any ICC awards.
By the way NGN down another 50 points to 1,147. A decent improvement from the all time low of 1,624 only a few weeks ago.
Forgive me if I’m wrong but SAVE was suspended from trading 1/2 hr after it announced to the market the proposed takeover of Petronas South Sudan portfolio. In theory the takeover was never priced into the SP so logic would suggest if the SS deal fails then the SP should remain firm and not
tank as some have suggested. However as we all know the market doesn’t always behave in a logical manner.
One thing I did observe is Jadestone had their deal terminated and returned to market on 11th April, it was suspended for 2 months from Feb at price 23.75p yet it came to market at a premium and opened back at 28p on re-listing a premium of roughly 18%
A lot of people quoting silly SP prices on SS deal failure cant contextualize, we have been suspended for 18 months with accugas hopefully performing at previous levels or better and we have also completed the Stubb Creek deal, plus on the cusp of CPF completion and potential for a Niger work programme. It would be hard not to still come back at a premium of our suspended price and hence even if SS fails I believe we will have modest premium price return probably in the conservative range of 30-35p as a minimum.
Will we be impacted negatively being a UK company when they clearly don’t trust the West?
You're quite right, my apologies!
This is going to have a massive impact in the next few weeks and months. Dollars can no longer be used as collateral for Naira loans, which will stop the hoarding of dollars and more dollars will be liquidated to Naira thus massively increasing dollar supply in the next 3 months.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/nigeria-bars-lenders-using-fx-denominated-collateral-naira-loans-2024-04-08/
Perhaps you have read the Wildcat rns right and I've read it wrong. My interpretation is that Sudan is closed for business but not South Sudan.
That's that for now then, I imagine? This seems lose lose - stay suspended until hostilities die down, or take the massive share price hit.
How utterly depressing: I miss my 5/5 strikes in Niger that'll be online by the end of 2019...
Interesting to see a new role being posted in Nigeria
https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Lagos-Supply-Chain-Manager-LA/975464255/
On the Naira Goldman predicting further gains and see potentially naira back below 1,000. I truly believe in the Q2 2024 we will see Naira back in the 800 - 900 range effectively re-couping all of the second de-valuation that occurred earlier this year.
It could also start to claw back some of the first de-valuation value which occured in June 2023. With Dangote and port harcourt refinery products reaching domestic market alleviating need to import dollar denominated refined products
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/usd-ngn-nigerian-naira-could-extend-rally-to-below-1000-dollar-goldman-sachs
Yes, an ironic chuckle from me this morning when I saw that PF.
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/WCAT/statement-re-sudan-and-south-sudan/16422159
I don’t disagree Rocky especially as we are approaching the middle of the year already. I’d like to think that they’d bring in a partner maybe. One thing is for certain there also needs a comprehensive update on Niger given that the pipeline is operational and I’m sure now that CNPC will be planning the next phases for 2-300k bopd with pumping stations. They simply have to get moving with this asset asap which would be something on top of the decent uplift from Stubb Creek oil after the recent acquisition there.
I’m just thinking that our risk profile is a bit too high for my liking and taking a cash injection for a partial sale and relinquishing operatorship would reduce our overall profile and and that our debt could be significantly reduced. Yes, less potential future revenues but surely taking smaller pieces of the pies has to be an option.
Sure aren’t there Russian troops in Mali as well for much longer and where it was reported last week on here about us doing something in renewables there.
Russian troops arrive in Niger as military agreement begins https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68796359
As the West are clearly out of favour, would it be an idea to sell a big % of our interests in the ARB. Maybe sell 50% to somebody like CNPC for a very large sum and transfer operator status to them. Then just take 50% of all future production…
Let’s hope there will still be a bit of capacity left in the pipe for us to stick 5kboepd into it soon…
April 13, 20242:40 PM GMT+1Updated 16 hours ago
NIAMEY, April 13 (Reuters) - Niger has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) worth $400 million linked to the sale of crude oil from its Agadem oilfield, Niger state television RTN reported late on Friday.
RTN did not provide details on the agreement. Niger's military authorities and CNPC could not be reached for comment.
"China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough," Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine said at the signing ceremony, which was broadcast by RTN.
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"This signature demonstrates the friendship ... and fruitful cooperation between the two states," Chinese ambassador Jiang Feng said.
An export pipeline project backed by CNPC subsidiary PetroChina (601857.SS), opens new tab was officially launched last November, linking the Agadem oilfield to the port of Cotonou in neighbouring Benin.
Previously, the West African country had a small oil refinery with capacity of around 20,000 bpd that mostly supplies Niger's domestic fuel market.
You understood perfectly, SoG. Was similar to Rocky's point on stranded gas. I probably wasn't v clear.
The reason I don't favour dividends, is that we must be paying about 15% interest right now: a distribution is unjustifiable in such circumstances.