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We know small distributions have previously been pencilled in but luck has not gone our way on that front. I’d have seriously expected one if SS closed but now with zero production at the moment I guess we would have to wait a while longer yet even if the deal closed. On the ICC cases, we could well win the awards and maybe North of $500m but how and when would SAVE receive the dosh and as some have mentioned, how many appeal challenges are allowed and how long will they take?
Can’t wait to see a comprehensive update on paper so that we can really see what’s going on. I still get stuff from IR and had another call last week but nothing tangible to mention to be fair. Chewing over old cud again but this is a taste of what we hope to see during the course of 2024:-
CPF to complete in Nigeria
New customers added and existing ones grown on the Accugas network
Will we add more stranded gas
I hope to see a renewable deal announced and hydrocarbon M&A in Nigeria too
Complete the Stubb Creek deal in Nigeria - hopefully by September as per guidance
Complete oil test in Niger and first oil of 1.5kboepd to commence
35m 2C to reclassify as 2P
New drilling program in Niger or introduce partner - minimum income of $250m
Update on 4 x ICC cases - highly unlikely TY but I still hope to see one
Debt to be reduced to below $300m by YE and to be refinanced
Progress to be made on renewable deals and as Z mentioned could this be split off as it’s own entity
So a lot to get our teeth in to but unfortunately, the one jewel in our crown remains to be gas in Nigeria ATM
Watch this space…
Totally absolutely. Please keep firing up this Savannah obsession. Trust is much needed otherwise it’s impossible to go on. Gratitudes and appreciations. No word is good enough.
I second that sentiment CYB. Over 15 months with scarcely any news from the company so it's really appreciated that posters like TiL have managed to keep ferreting out information to share with us all.
Thanks Trust.
Whilst I'm here, thanks also for all your thoughtful posts here over many months. You're a big part of keeping this board alive and keeping us all thinking: it's appreciated.
Caution here is the article Vitol still front runners -
Trader Gunvor takes a swing at GOC-Vitol agreement over Carlyle assets
Guillaume Letessier, a senior manager at Geneva-based trading company Gunvor, visited Libreville in February to meet with junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema as part of the company's efforts to get in Gabon's good graces over its rival Vitol to buy Carlyle's assets. According to our sources, Gunvor offered the Gabon Oil Company (GOC) $950m for Carlyle's local assets, currently operated by Assala Energy. However, Vitol is also based in Geneva and has exclusive negotiating rights with the GOC for this. It is also promising the GOC a hefty sum in exchange for Carlye's production of 45,000 bpd. These assets were acquired from Shell in 2017 for over $700m.
This buying race follows the GOC's November 2023 announcement that it was exterting its pre-emption rights over Carlyle's assets in Gabon. Initially, these were supposed to go to Maurel & Prom, a subsidiary of Indonesian Pertamina (AI, 01/04/24). Oligui Ngema confirmed his intention to finalise the acquisition during his official New Year's address. On 15 February, Carlyle and GOC signed a sales and purchase agreement, and GOC must now raise the necessary funds to seal the deal.
-dare remind us what they said the debt refinance would add to our SP in UK pence?
Yes, the Gas revenues are fixed to a USD rate but paid in Naira.
Thought our contract in usd but paid in naira?
Local currency Nigerian govt bonds trade at a yield of 19%, thus any debt facility we get will have a similar or higher rate. But the rate isnt so important. What is important is that an expensive USD facility is being replaced by a local currency facility. Given SAVE revenues are in USD or are linked to contract fixed in USD terms, this will be a BIG positive.
Just the poster’s comment after the latest rns. Don’t think he knows anything more than the next person. Approval could be anytime or never. I hope it’s before 17th May. I also hope we will have an update on other areas, Niger, Nigeria and other activities. It’s been too long with no news.
I know we have all been sweating over debt restructure for some time now but was just wondering the effect the current interest rates of the local currency would have on our $400m+ debt would have ?
It is about time we at least had the unaudited 2023 results. In previous years the company have always given us some indication of the full years results in December of that year, even if it was unaudited. As far as anyone could tell it was relatively accurate when the audited sets were published. It would be good for the shareholders to get this information after all we are patiently enduring extended periods of lock in. Come on board throw us some scraps!
A B&B now turned up.
Doesn't appear to be an end-of-taxyear B&B / rollover, as they don't match.
Two arranged trades between private parties, for quite significant amounts, at an encouraging 7% premium to closing price.
Just like a few weeks ago a couple of trades have gone through? Above the ask too!
Thanks for sharing that Komakino, that’s really, really interesting.
I had hoped for the Tribunal to sit at least 3-4 months before that, perhaps Feb’25, but my guess is that the number of matters in dispute and/or amalgamated into one arbitration may mean that although the case is a relatively simply case of direct expropriation by the Chadian government, the matter had become more complex in scope - eg including midstream CC matters etc. My guess only.
Under the new ICC rules incorporated there is a time limit on publication of award after hearing. From memory the ICC Arbitration Rules 2021 include a deadline of six months from the last signature to the terms of reference. If memory serves and this is correct this means we’re looking at publication within H2 2025. My guess only.
RR,
According to Blaise Dariustone, a reporter who is a correspondent at BBC News Afrique, 'The trial between Chad and Savannah Energy at the Paris Court of Commerce is scheduled for June 2025.'
FaceBook post on 8th March
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004271854537
That’s my thought too. Not so much so the legal stuff; but they might have verbally agreed to it it’s now waiting to be signed. However we’re all guessing and the optimism in us might have led to any over interpretation. Fact is it’s still not approved.
The only positive I take is that the longer the suspension, the more chance we have at returning higher than suspended price even if no M&A should occur - apart from SC of course.
Accugas debt deal getting closer to happening if fx continues to improve
And Accugas debt hopefully a lot less than we were last informed of. Was it $434m with every $20m reduction worth 1.2p?
I’d hope to see net debt well south of $400m next time we see a new number.
CPF should be complete within the next 2 / 3 months and let’s see what’s lined up for incremental production being added.
My main concern is not losing SS as a entity but going into back to back suspensions due to small MC relative to a new M&A deal.
What’s going on in Niger? I am expecting a positive update soon on that front.
I still think the last RNS (although mandated by AIM) is to put pressure on SS Gov signature pre the oil conference at the end of June. The Gov (IMHO) would struggle to stand up and say we are open for business if our deal has not been ratified by then.
Seems like current production is still a big fat zero in SS ATM so the headline figure will not be reducing from current production but I hope we have negotiated the headline figure of $1.25bn down a chunk due to the increased risk profile of getting BOD’s to market!
I can’t believe how little news we have seen on our other business interests excluding SS and CC…(where is all the CC revenue currently going)
Are we over 12 months in to the ICC cases being initiated with guidance saying ‘expected to take 12 - 18 months? Update soon - a slight possibility…
The key sentence to me is "Completion of the Proposed Transaction remains subject to satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, principally the receipt of written approval for the Proposed Transaction from the Government of South Sudan."
Does this imply that verbal approval could have been received? And that it is now down to lawyers redlining few bits & bobs in the contract?
Scotpak - if the company sticks to its usual reporting timeline than we should receive a Q1 2024 operational update either the coming we or the week after similar to last year, so I am hoping this will shed some light on a few of the items I have listed.
We need some of the boxes in your list to be ticked off!! Otherwise we seem to be forever stuck in this cycle of: shock- anger - disappointment - grief and finally hope!!