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Let’s see what it holds.
I think realistically a good outcome this week would be a further extension with commentary around ‘significant progress made’ or suchlike but let’s wait and see
I'll be extremely disappointed if the suspension continues. Resumption of trading would force a full ops update - current and potential - rather than the feeble few lines about working the various deal streams.
Totally agree this share needs to be relisted as they have had over a year to sort this deal out. I know it might not be great for share price but for better or worse want to be able to sell my shares.
As I said on other channel, Charlie Munger, perhaps the most successful investor in our lifetime, said patience was the key to long term investment success.
If you followed the Accugas acquisition you wil recall the long delays, the many turns and twists, but the end result from our CEO's skilful negotiation was and is superb.
The same applies to securing the Niger leases. Delay awaiting the pipeline is fully understandable, and the unforseen political deterioration is a huge disappointment but hopefully only temporary. The potential of the leases is in no way diminished and whoever is in power will want the oil produced.
The negotiation of the Chad interest was also very skillful in the sense that despite a revolution in the country Save is expected to receive substantial compensation although the investment has been minmal thereby minimising the risk.
The same skill has been pplied to the Cameroon asset and if retained will be very lucrative or should be compensated if lost.
We can expect that the same skill has been applied to South Sudann so that if the deal falls through the likely cost and risk will have been minimalised.
Given the currency upheaval in Nigeria the delay in finalising the new banking arrangements should not be a surprise.
And there may be another deal on the horizon.
The delays and setbacks are frustrating for everyone but there is much to be pleased about. We just have to recognise the difficulties arising fro m the regional politics.
Nicely put Kinkell, most people don't realise the value that the accugas asset will unlock this year with CPF completion. There is so much going right for the company still.
- Accugas will see material increase in volumes this year with CPF completion in a few months - No doubt in my mind
- Niger / Benin pipeline complete and on the cusp of commencing exports will mean a better plan for Savannah Niger programme.
- Should see some update on all ICC cases preferably H1 2024.
- Accugas debt re-structure - Hopefully some update in H1 2024
- Potential acquisitions south sudan or another
I truly believe based on organic growth during the suspension period and with every passing month reducing overall debt we should be fairly valued higher than our suspension price especially with whats to come with accugas in the next few months.
Savannah Energy joins the race for a share of Carlyle's oil assets. Savannah Energy, the oil company owned by British national Andrew Knott, wrote recently to the oil ministry with an offer to help it pre-empt the oil assets currently held by Carlyle group subsidiary Assala Energy (AI, 26/01/24).3 hours ago
Interesting will probably pull out of suspension and no doubt another suspension for another asset.
By the wording looks like we will help the Gabonese government pre-empt so perhaps a joint bid...............
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/01/30/savannah-energy-joins-the-race-for-a-share-of-carlyle-s-oil-assets,110153645-bre
Perhaps using a SS joint venture deal as a template?
Further details on Gabon government pre-emption rights................ $1.3bn a significant premium to what M&P offered nearly 100%...........
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012924-signal-to-investors-gabon-junta-goes-for-broke-with-13-bil-assala-oil-pre-emption
https://www.intellinews.com/gabon-seeks-1-3bn-funding-to-buy-assala-oil-company-ahead-of-france-s-maurel-and-prom-310103/
Interesting that they have talked to Vitol and Vitol are pre-dominantly one of our backers on deals so could get interesting.......
I don't think Charlie Munger would have been very impressed with the last 12 months if he were a SAVE shareholder.
Locked in with limited information on company operations or SS acquisition.
Very poor.
I agree that patience is an important factor to successful investing, but imagine being invested here from 2014 or 2015.
Patience has its limit.
In that time no share price gain, no dividend payouts either.
Munger wouldn't invest in this share with AK trying to run the show.
Compare Knott to the CEOs of SEPL and Afentra, and you will see a huge difference in quality that is required required here.
Time to step aside AK.
After todays news re Save and others chasing part of the Asssala (Gabon) assets it will be interesting (whether S.Sudan completes or not), to see where Save can establish itself on the value ladder. We still have no mention of the additional 'at least one more' hydrocarbon asset that was to be announced before end of 2023.
Current m/cap £348m and how net debt position looks 2 years on from possible effective S.Sudan Petronas date and 1 year of lost Chad production/pipeline interest re compensation outcome.
Our average gas price (2022) was $3.69 mcf.
Net 2P = 71.7 mmboe (excluding 33 mmbo Niger, excluding 55 mmbo Exxon Chad) Possible total 160 mmbo 2P if ICC favouarble re valuation restatement.
Production net 20,240 boepd H1 2023. (12,000 bopd lost from Chad) would be 32,000 boepd + pending possible 50,000 bopd/300 mmbo 2P from Sudan.
How will S.Sudan go and how will ICC rule on Chad compensation - Overall this would have placed us at around 450 mmboe 2P and circa 82,000 boepd (not to mention pipeline interest valautions in Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon) and a $2 billion/yr revenue profile at current oil prices.
Compared to Maurel and Proms current valuation -
211.26m shares in issue Euro 5.50/£4.70 = £992m m/cap
$120m net debt.
2023 figures = $682m revenue
Average oil price = $79.30. Gas Price $3.76 mcf.
Production 28,057 boepd ie (15,354 bopd Gabon, 4,103 bopd Angola, 51.6 mmcfd(8600 boepd) Tanzania.
2P Reserves = 182.2 mmboe (139.7 oil + 42.5 gas)
https://www.maureletprom.fr/en/investisseurs/cours-de-l-action
https://www.maureletprom.fr/en/investisseurs/communiques-de-presse
------------------------------
The price history of M&P was about 4 Euro/£3.40 when they announced the Assala deal rising to 7 euros /£6 in December 2023 now £4.70
Taking over ASSALA would have meant $730m at completion, rollover of Assala $600m facility gaining 40,700 bopd and 97 mmbo 2P.
M&P had 5,000 bopd kicking in from December with sanctions lifting in Venezuela but now seems possible that these are going to be resanctioned.
Zengas - Great analysis as ever I personally would be happy with extended suspension if it means it allows the company time to bring a significant deal to market. I think everyone on here knows that what savannah is trying to do is once in a lifetime opportunity, and with these opportunities nothing is ever as clear cut and simple as mentioned by a few already accugas took a while and now it's a top performing asset with material upside. Andrew strategy is not wrong as everyone is looking to deal make in Africa with majors selling some tasty assets we just need a bit of luck to come our way and there is nothing like additional time to close deals to swing the odds more in our favour.
I am cognisant of the fact that a lot of private investors are frustrated on here but the prize is such that can only be executed with patience as I like to call it the "ZEN" mindsight..............................
As for where we are on the value ladder, I always use to to compare Seplat share price with our share price as there use to be a broad correlation between the 2 companies prior to suspension.... The Seplat share price has hit an all time high this wee and 75% up since the price at our time of suspension.
I know it's not comparing apples to apples, and probably more like apples to pears, but considering the positive correlation I would imagine there might be some read across from that perhaps not as much as 75% but a small read across of 15% - 25%, also with the fact that with every passing month we reduce overall debt and build cash...........
Not all plain sailing for any of them. It's not unique to AK/Save but certainly frustrating being a shareholder.
Sepl has sufferred over the years from lost and shut in production over oil theft and major pipeline shut-ins causing force-majuere. In addition their gas build up has been slower than expected. Every trick in the book re court cases and attempts to kick the CEO out of the country - pretty hair raising on a one country focus.
Seplats deal with Exxon is still not cleared yet in Nigeria. In Oct 2023 they were still confident of it being approved.
First announced back on 25th Feb 2022 so almost 2 years and with an effective transaction date of 1/1/21 so now over 3 years in the making although some of the agreed terms have changed a little due to the deal taking so long and Exxons ongoing involvement.
M&P ran into problems with it's takeover of Wentworth first time around and now the Assala dea in Jeapordy.
Exxons sale on Zafiro turned sour and the FPSO sent for scrap.
Zenith relatively small assets in Tunisia (compared to Saves Chad) and suing for just over $85m.
Even Kosmos and it's partner Tullow had to go to arbitration claims to resolve their dispute.
You only have to look outside Africa and Cairns history in suing India for hundreds of millions.
To add further to that Zengas even Shell recent onshore sale to local independents will drag
https://blueprint.ng/coalition-rejects-shells-divestment-threatens-nationwide-protest-2/
Sepl shareprice very strengthening on the back of comments by Nigerian Oil Minister the Exxon-Seplat deal 99% finalised.
So what are we expecting in the morning.
My understanding (and I appreciate the language is a bit ambiguous) is that the suspension ends tomorrow if there is no change. I can’t see us suddenly trading at 8am….
Hey - we could get one like this:-
South Sudan Acquisition Update
Further to the Company's announcement on 14 December 2023, the Company continues to advance the various workstreams required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited's energy business in South Sudan. In this regard, a further extension to the Company's cancellation date has been granted to 1 May 2024. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.
Rocky, if they could add ‘significant progress has been made and…’ to that I for one would be delighted
We will know soon if RR is actually ‘inside’.