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Looks like we are gaining a bit of momentum. Fingers crossed 🤞
Exactly and I would also point out that Sanofi is one to watch. Industry gossip has it that they apparently lost out on the Mirati deal last year. Fierce Pharma has also reported that Sanofi previously targeted Horizon Therapeutics but lost to Amgen and it also lost a bid for Reata Pharmaceuticals to Biogen. What we also know about Sanoffi is that a couple of years ago it paid £1.1 Billion for Kymab, co founded by Sareum Non Exec Dr Mike Owen. i.e. Dr Owen will hopefully be lobbying Sanoffi about licencing SDC 1801. Sanoffi won't want to keep missing out on deals....
Good luck, Brighty
First thing. If the TYK2 compounds work and get to market, they are worth billions, not just "billions" billions per annum. That's undeniable. However, we don't know if they work, no one does. So, with safety and toxicity almost a given, we need funds to test, trial and prove efficacy. Calculating fair value right now is tricky. If we were fully funded, then 2 to 300 million, would be out of the question. I'm not talk TO value here, I'm talking market cap. Get good solid funding, start 1801 2a and we should see the MC head towards the 100s of million region. If we get just enough funding, then it will leave doubt and new shareholders will be cautious and with the recent track record, they should be. When talking value, you also have to consider that with the dillution, almost 40 milion cheap shares will be sloshing round the market. The 10p ones are already 50% up. A lot of these new shares are new investors and IMO these will change hands quickly and again, IMO, most will be out by the time we are pushing a pound. I also think this will happen before we get any major news. So these shares will be in hands of those who believe the Market Cap is going to be higher andctheyvmight be looking for a 200 million NC, maybe even more. Then we have the WRAP shares that are in SAR investor hands. These shares, IMO (should've just said all this was my opinion) are a big risk to the valuation when talking TO. There are some LTH holders here that would now, gladly take a 300 million offer. As it would make them 7 figure profits.
The dynamic has changed and where once we had a shareholder base who wouldn't take less than £10, probably wouldnt risk losing everything past say £5. The positive here is, if someone wants to sell at £5, those buying will be thinking £10 and so on. My cards on the table, I would be disappointed if we got less then £10 per share in a TO. I will sell a few on the way but even with profits, I would feel like the market had won and the reason is, if all working and progressing, the end of p2 with data to support a p3 trial, then we are looking at 2 billion.
Why not a billion? The science data will do the talking and no one knows what that is funny guy .... hopefully we are over our financial nightmare.
Big pharma will look at data and go with it....lots of other tyk2 drugs to check data with, efficacy and safety wise. The two geeks might be rubbish at finance but the science I trust they will be good at...
Hopefully news on CHK soon.....
Considering the current SAR performance, you would be bonkers not to take a price of 200-300m. I have little confidence that the results will propel this into the billions, its track record has been woeful and every turn it has disappointed. However, its not unrealistic with a bit of market spin this could get to a pound in a short time. To me sar is now definitely a short term play
"If P1 results are as good as many think they will be, then I would not take £225m (280 US in £). The potential is too great".
That's as maybe but you would be firkin crazy to turn this down.
I'd accept a US280m offer tomorrow! Would be a 22 bag for those participating in the Wrap.
If P1 results are as good as many think they will be, then I would not take £225m (280 US in £). The potential is too great.
Https://endpts.com/in-latest-turn-to-autoimmune-therapies-cullinan-nabs-280m-to-join-lupus-space/