George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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LOL you ignore reality -What about the court judgement? an inconvenient truth
You’ll get nothing from the Congo. It’s bent as a whippets leg. Gecamines is owned by the state who gave the licence to RRR they took it back and sold it to Glencore. You really think the state will crap on itself. Delusional
Andrew know needs to get more mug investors in to cycle these shares issued .
Only for the traders atm as there seems to be a nice spike in the SP every so often. Just need to judge when to get on and when to get off lol
Unless something is obvious or at least legitimate in the future I am leaving this share as soon as I am get my money back. Definitely not cutting with my losses because there is still hope but MAN is this frustrating. The wordplay is comical
Read the earlier posts about Risk On and a metals rally.
It seems that the market and the metals market in particular are headed for an upswing. It will affect RRR but more important is the awaited news on DRC, ALR and one or two others. And always, there is the possibility of something left field.
DYOR
It would have come across as a more honest post if the title read ‘Desperate’ but keep clogging the board up with drivel.
P.s. where’s the docs we are waiting on getting translated from French? 8 months plus now, surely you weren’t misleading people on here?
Https://twitter.com/TheMarketBullAU/status/1696355283344499067?s=20
Sell in May and go away is nearly over. More signs that risk on is back?
DYOR
Https://twitter.com/saxomarketcall/status/1696434762737430938?s=20
If this is right then metals are heading higher.
DYOR
Looks like the price will drift off towards the 0.12p due to inconsistencies in the companies information delivery to shareholders.
Posts are continually being censored by LSE for expressing a hard hitting opinion about the BOD so the above is the best I can do for the moment!
Looks like the sp is going back to the lows in the 0.12p region again due to the consistent delivery delays and inaccuracies of Bells stated financial expectations .
Of course miracles can happen despite his habits of a lifetime (20 plus years) of removing shareholders funds by self awarded incentives, high pension, pay and world travel whilst the consistent company record of high risk investments and failure to deliver anything of value to shareholders continues.
Dukey, forward looking statements by their nature are; likely, probably, possibly, perhaps.
Certainty is only appropriate when something has already happened and even then there can be doubt.
The FEQ model said 300,000 tonnes of 2% lithium sold over 5 years. Models aren't reality otherwise they wouldn't be called models, they would be called reality. That is why the FEQ model includes a reduction in the NPV10 to address uncertainty.
All looking good but not quite there yet.
Well done on the not posting at 1am over the weekend.
xx
Ha ha typical Andrew Bell - He says I think, (like little johnny), probably which is equivelent to probably not in AB terms , and perhaps which is equivilent to perhaps not - Trying to stay away from this board but the creep AB riles the crap out of me
Copper/Cobalt prices might become relevant again if RRR get the $7.5m from DRC they're owed this week, we can but hope.
Https://twitter.com/KitcoNewsNOW/status/1696205390529302540?s=20
Quelle surprise! The information is out there
From 6mins "we see a lot more potential than we did" i.e bigger than what was in the FEQ report... 6mins 12 secs 'in terms of what we have...possibilities of getting something going on a reasonable scale straight away are good"
https://youtu.be/HlJbgYaMXOk?si=KMG6rYySv8pTeT7z
Helpful - So the plan is to export now what they know to be there based on volumetrics and the contract miner/ drill out as they go along at the project level?
Trade/Spec,
RRR has already put out a volumetric analysis: the First Equity report from January. In practice the only source of data for FEQ was RRR: they put in provision for uncertainty by reducing the NPV10 by 35%. If the FEQ report is misleading, why does RRR have it on its website?
The above was based on the stated plan at the time: top ten metres, 5,000 tonnes pm at 2% grade sold locally.
Well we now know more and we can do an order of magnitude comparative analysis.
1. We now know that at least some of the material is 3%+
2. We know that material at surface tends to be lower grade than deeper down because of "weathering": lithium is volatile.
3. We now know that the pegmatite PEG 1 continues to depth and is not solely at surface.
4. We now know that the geologists have identified three pegmatites on site and suspect that there is a 4th that they have missed and that all continue into the hill and at depth.
5. Each of the above is a multiplicative factor.
True it is not possible to say with certainty what is there without drilling. Drilling presents a number of issues; it probably puts any revenue into next year and it costs a lot of money. The original plan was based on that what we could see at surface was what we had and the Zim rules at the time.
So whether Tin Hill is now 5x or 10x or 30x it is now a lot bigger than thought a few weeks ago and so is the project.
The FEQ report on Tin Hill said $39.2mil for the NPV10 and that was without; the grade being 3%, the product being sold for export, PEG1 continuing to depth and the discovery of the other pegmatites.
DYOR
Spec - as I've said to Helpful, ALR/RRR now need to start putting news out to market (Zim elections are done) on exactly this sort of stuff what tonnage/grade they plan to export/what is comfortably achievable, they need to guide - ALR/RRR should do something together as Bell isn't the best presenter, maybe Dirk and others can assist him, also introduce the contract miner on ground when appointed - I agree with you this is the model most likely Chinese Offtake/Contract Miner/Partner. We have First Equities report to go on but the inputs for that were for a 5k tonne per month operation selling into local market so thats almost redundant since we are looking at a much bigger operation straight away. Bell alluded to the fact that the visiting partner geologist and ALR's geologist both felt that the deposit was materially bigger - so since they've decided to go for the bigger export market due to Zim law changes we could do with updated PR presentation coming from ALR/RRR and via RNS on whether this is a 5k tonne per month operation or even bigger now. We can then get updated broker target from FEQ on this.
PREM MARU are good at the PR/Newsflow side, ALR/RRR need to get on it and feed the market. If those samples are being bagged for Chinese buyers lets get some snaps with that detail. You should see the PREM MARU twitter feed. Brewer and Roach are non stop.
How big is "Tin Hil" represents the problem in both buying and selling. There has not been enough work on the property to really know. Consultants on the ground will have 'feel' but ultimately there is no geological model that say xxxx tonnes at y% grade.
For a variety of reasons, including the unknown, IMO the most likely approach is a Chinese offtake coupled with 3rd party mining. This deal (or really any type of deal) would be very significant for ALR/RRR
Maybe, maybe not. They are just as likely to get a bid from the parties they are talking to; look at Prem and Prospect. In effect Canmax farmed in using the offtake agreement and funding as leverage.
The question is, at what price is AB likely to sell?
I have been looking at earlier offtake agreements agreed since 2019; most were done at much lower lithium prices. When the Prospect deal was agreed the lithium price was much lower and they used a much lower price for the modelling the DCF.
My view is that he would want to sell if anything between $50m and $100mil was on the table. The reality is that any deal would be at a huge discount to the DCF: no idea where the line should be drawn for fair value.
If what ALR says about Tin Hill is true then there is possibly 12+ times lithium in place compared to the model prepared by First Equity. Marginality means that the extra volume is more profitable because the fixed costs of preparing the site already in for the first First Equity calculations. Possibly more CAPEX would be required whether we mine in-house or appoint a contract miner.
IMHO with hindsight both Prem and Prospect did their deals too cheaply. But......timing, we can't control timing.
Brian Gilbertson who AB lurves, used to say to him, "in mining, if you want to be become more profitable, you get bigger" what that is referring to is the marginality of production. The fixed costs and the capex is spread over more units of production and so the marginal profits are greater. Tin Hill is a lot bigger than AB and ALR/RRR thought a few weeks ago.
DYOR
All about how quickly they execute these binding terms now and get info and pr out. That'll be the measure for anyone getting in/averaging down now.
So keep it simple everyone knows Andrew Bell is marmite like George Roach/Jason Brewer/Bernard Aylward were but they are delivering so I never right anything off at the right price and this is sat at all time lows again (after a spectacular run in 2020 from this exact price 0.16 to 1.20) and Lithium is a rising tide thats lifting all boats - so the equation is a simple one - they get binding terms with 'chinese buyers' and the 'contract miner/partner' and it can't stay sub £4m mcap. Even now it's far too undervalued, I have feeling the market will catch on fast as there aren't any Lithium projects at this mkt cap this close to production and cash flows. We also have ex TR1 holders like poster 'Longterm' starting to position again and additionally William Black increasing to 3.30%. I'm seeing all the right players gathering again.
At ALR they previously modelled a 5k tonne per month operation at Tin Hill based on 2% grade selling at $250 a tonne supplying to local market and came out with a $10.7m per annum in pre tax net cash flows - but based on Friday 18th August RNS they will now export which they get much higher pricing, based on same tonnage at > 3% grading @ $1500 a tonne they can get $7.5m per month ($90m per annum, 50% of this to RRR) - theres 4 of these licences (if you extrapolate across all 4 then its $360m per annum), they have EIA clearance for Tin Hill and can proceed to export from there to begin - Exact pricing/offtake terms are to be agreed. There is stock pile present to.
Atb