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Aberdeenman what sort of timescale are you looking at here?
Might be worth reviving the twitter group now we are approaching relisting, before the trolls arrive. Anyone interested DM me on twitter aberdeenman@aberdeen_shares
130Mt at 140 GBP per ton = 18.2 Billion GBP They may not sell for that price into the local market and extraction cost may work out at around 60GBP per ton But the upside is vast There is a competent persons report to be included in the admission document/prospectus, so we can all do the number crunching from that, but as they will use both open cast and underground extraction it will likely be highly profitable and a decent life of mine. Could provide a pension for those willing to hold. Getting in on the ground floor really could pay off with this one.
This is one for the watchlist for those that are not in at the moment and depending on the relist details could be a good one
all depends on their extraction predictions. Ready market for the coal and predictable price. as I said well worth crunching the numbers, we could all find that we could receive more than our original investment year on year. I would also expect the price will rise fairly fast so not too worried. As for buying us out, depends on those providing the finance as effectively they will have a large chunk of equity, they may be looking to dividend income not appreciation. For a project such as this I suspect that will be their motivation.
If the RLH does become profitable in a short space of time then surely a decent dividend paying company would be attractive to one of the big boys to buy us out to add us to their portfolio?
is my holding so thats a bit off that 120k mark you expect!! It seems unreasonable to place at the previous price as they are effectively buying into a profit making company but institutions buying great shares in a profitable company for peanuts is nothing new! Its us PIs in now that have enabled this deal to take place by laying the foundations to keep the company going to proceed with this deal. There is obviously dilution but the previous price was for an empty shell with the potential for taking a company over so it was high risk and long wait...
Just to add to that. Those supplying the finance will see this as a cash cow basically. Once up and running the mine will provide significant revenue and profits, that will produce dividends for many years. Those that sell for a small profit on relisting may well rue the day they sold for peanuts when high yielding dividends roll in year on year on those millions of shares they bought right back at the start..... e.g. my less than 2% even diluted 10 fold to 0.2%, if the company is making 60m profit a year (looks entirely reasonable for a project of this scale, but obviously a few years away) then dividends could be 120,000 a year - That is the leverage of getting in on the ground floor. We shall see what is in the prospectus regarding projections, but well worth crunching the figures to see where your own holding could take you dividend wise.
Thanks for your thoughts, Aberdeenman, appreciated. Here's hoping it all comes good!
It could well open higher, just that the placing will likely be at that level. The MM's will likely use that as a guide for opening price, but it will then be down to supply/demand. hoping that there will be plenty of buy orders in from those scaled back in the placing, and that not too many will be selling. Personally I have a large holding, but will be keeping it for some time, as it is fairly obvious that with a market cap of 3.6m and a 200m deal being done that there is significant upside here. Dilution will determine where we get too, however even with significant dilution (got to be expected when raising the sums involved) those supplying the funds will not be like a Darwin selling into the market. This will be grown up big finance who will hold for the long term, therefore not likely to be a large free float. I own just under 2% of the company, and I am sure there are quite a few others with large holdings, and if, like me, are holding, the free float is reduced even further.
Ah...so no immediate premium is expected as it was suspended around 0.24p ? I was hoping it could atleast double/triple on relisting ?
My 'gut' thinks it will relist somewhere around 0.25/0.26 But obviously the consolidation will make it a multiple of that, with correspondingly less shares. I am hoping for a decent rise, given the placing is oversubscribed, so some demand in the market, however, as often happens after a prolonged suspension many will want to cash out, so demand/supply will determine where we get to.
You most definitely still have a valid holding. Last I heard relisting is likely next month, depending on how long the Takeover Panel take rubber stamping it. Oversubscribed placing as well I hear, so hoping for a decent rise on relisting. With such a big deal and profit potential, should perform well in coming months.
Aberdeenman - Would appreciate what your hunch is in regards where we could open on a relist if we were not to consolidate?
Hi I invested in this last year, does this mean i still have my interest, because at one point i thought it was all lost.
Nice write up bud, and I'll accept it's genuine. Would disagree though on your lack of trust, but is that we are all able to formulate our own opinions. Would go so far as to say your para 3 is strongly similar to my own thoughts and I had questioned the personnal traits of those actively involved, resulting in that same conclusion. Toby's previous, will no doubt have been a significant factor in getting the financials to support us. Let's see if the team can pull it off.
I don't want to get into a huge debate over CTAG, but there were many factors involved, including as you say mistakes by posters, including myself, but when a share bags many times, phychology comes into it, and belief that it is/was a winner. The CEO did deceive, whether there was malice aforethought I doubt we will ever know. I have met the guy a few times, after the event unfortunately, and would not trust him as far as could throw him. There was also a concerted campaign to bring down the share (and company) by certain commentators, that, I subsequently learned, had a grudge against the CEO personally, that ultimately brought the comapny down, along with the CEO failing to disclose full information to funders. The fact that Amit is self funding the company now gives a glimmer of hope, but again not holding my breath. Back to RLH I have met Toby hayward on a couple of occasions, and for what it is worth, have full confidence in what he is doing.
that 'success story', which was "trumpeted" very loudly by a handful of over-excitable Pi's, some even running a campaign of deleting negative posts, then left a very one-sided argument as to the project's possibilities. & some open-minded peeps might question who can then put 100% blame on an entrepreneur for getting caught up in the loud hype surrounding his product.. The man is most certainly guilty of failing to deliver, but what is not confirmed, is how close the failings were prior to delivering, i.e.. did he have absolutely no intent to deliver on anything advertised or was there intent, which then hit unfore-seens ; technically or otherwise ? peeps will no doubt have already made up their own minds, but for someone, who previously dictated very loudly that 'it is a guaranteed winner', whilst refusing to listen to any critics, then its quite easy to surmise, how such a narrow outlook would then easily result in further narrow visions, eg. those 'blatant lies'... Is a difficult call, with such one-sided campaigns, for genuine Pi's to try work out wether the product is genuine, wether it will meet All the criteria necessary to pass the Health Boards requirements, wether it will be financially viable, but there most certainly is a requirement for such a health monitoring asset. Wether or not, they can get a slice of that market, is in the hands of the Gods and even then, after the Gods have filled in their score-sheets, it would still be extremely foolish to confirm it as a 'guaranteed winner'... Lets hope Toby has a wee bit more success, and that perhaps hope that Lady Luck is a wee bit more gracious on this one.
Pretty much written off my 80k loss on CTAG. As I previously posted what can you do when a CEO lies and deceives? Unbelievable how one man can ruin what could, and should, have been a success story. Still a possibility for some kind of small return there, but not holding my breath given the ineptitude displayed so far. But on RLH it is a different story, very big deal, very large revenue and profit will be generated, and expecting many multiples of the SP in due course. Not long now.
Things must be looking up........ Are you back on CTAG too?
Don't usually do that but looking good. Packed in the offshore big bucks. Got fed up of all the shite,company has lost the plot. so on a fishery research vessel now. Quarter the money but no stress and worries. ATB
Alright Lam I'm back on the outside lol yes the weather is good for me now, need to work some long hours with the late light hours and the sun, but not complaining, will jump over and take a look at your MRs lol when you out lol Brants
Aye Brants hope all is well.Long season this year with the nice weather already eh? Have a look at MRS. Sorry for mentioning but could be good. ATB and GLA
Here's hoping for some good news, both for us and the BOD who must be trying for a deal, had some mishaps my self lately there's only one direction for me from here, so take it away Sam Brants
A bit of further info on the rules/process.... When a company announces an RTO they have 6 months to complete the deal or delist, the shares suspending on announcement of the RTO. If the company fails to complete the deal within 6 months they have to delist, where we are now. they then have a further 6 months to complete where they can publish a prospectus and do a simple relist. If they fail to complete the deal within the second six months they have to apply to the market to relist same as if they were a new company, an expensive process that can cost in the region of 600k. therefore there is impetus to relist within the 12 month period, although they can apply for an extension of the 12 months if they are very close to closing the deal and/or there are extenuating circumstances (like bureaucratic delays) Obviously in each circumstance they have to get shareholder approval (EGM) for the proposed deal. therefore they publish the prospectus and announce the EGM giving two weeks notice. On approval the company normally relists the following business day.