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Ramsdens a financial services group whose main activities encompass foreign-currency exchange, retail jewellery, pawnbroking and a precious metals buying and selling service, has delivered a resilient trading performance and is placed to deliver a strong profit recovery in the 2021/22 financial year.
The effects of two national lockdowns and restrictions on foreign travel were always going to impact trading by reducing footfall in store, dampening demand for purchases of foreign currency, and in the absence of places to spend their money it also enabled pawnbroking customers to pay down debt. These headwinds are now set to turn into tailwinds.
....Chief executive Peter Kenyon also highlighted that the pawnbroking book increased from £6.1m to £6.8m in the final quarter of last year. Reassuringly, pledges past their due date remain at normal levels. The combination of a high gold price and the need for some customers to seek short-term cash flow in what could be challenging conditions for the less well-off this year are supportive of further growth.
.... jewellery sales surged by 70 per cent in the first quarter of 2021/22, having accounted for 16 per cent of divisional revenue of £18.2m in the 12 months to 30 September 2021, up from 10 per cent in the prior year. Premium watches are proving a hot investment, so much so that Ramsdens sold £1m of s****y tickers in December 2021, says Kenyon.
The combination of higher pawnbroking income, recovery in foreign-currency sales (on a higher margin given the exit of rivals from the market), a return to more normalised precious metals trading, and ongoing growth in jewellery sales suggest that a recovery in gross profit from £22.3m to £35.7m is achievable, as analysts at Liberum predict. On this basis, the house broker forecasts a ninefold rise in pre-tax profit .....
Now up to 12.31%.
Keen.
Have I read this correctly that Kenyon has sold 250,000 shares awarded under a scheme setup in 2017? I cannot immediately find a note on the details of the award, but this might give rise to an overhang as volume is not exactly brisk at the moment.
Hasn't negatively affected the SP.
So as long as we hold the shares on Thursday, we will receive the dividend?
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1485993018213769225
Otus take a bigger stake upping to 11.38%
This is an absolute no brainer. Look at inflation/cost of living, pawnbroker side will be in big demand later this year. Been averaging into these since start of covid share price has a long way still to go. Plenty of cash on the balance sheet. GLA
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1483872972427378688
Primed for a strong recovery
A financial services group whose main activities encompass foreign-currency exchange, retail jewellery, pawnbroking and precious metals is set to deliver a robust profit recovery in 2022
January 19, 2022
By Simon Thompson
Ex dividend date: 3rd Feb 2022
Pay date: 10th March 2022
Amount 1.2p
Solid numbers. 2022 should be a big rebound year
:-)
Current Trading:
The Board is pleased to provide an update on Q1 FY22 trading (October to December 2021).
· Investments in our jewellery retail operations have continued to produce strong results.
o In store retail jewellery revenue up more than 30% on October to December 2020.
o Online retail jewellery revenue up more than 70% on October to December 2020.
· The latent demand for foreign holidays remains strong and we are optimistic of international travel, and therefore our foreign currency exchange volumes, increasing as COVID-19 testing restrictions are eased.
o Foreign currency volumes were approximately 40% of pre pandemic levels but had increased by almost 200% on October to December 2020.
· The expected need for our pawnbroking service has seen, and will continue to see, increased demand as our customers' needs for short term financing grow.
o Pawnbroking loan book has grown to £6.8m as at 31 December 2021 (£5.9m at 31 December 2020).
· As life normalises and we can offer our purchase of precious metal service to our foreign currency customers, we expect to increase the volume of gold purchased.
o The weight of the gold purchased from customers was approximately 80% of pre pandemic levels but had increased by approximately 50% on October to December 2020.
The investment in the Group's online retail jewellery operation has led to online sales more than doubling year on year.
· The Board will be recommending a final dividend of 1.2p per share
Ramsdens has remained agile and resilient to the trading conditions caused by the pandemic. The Group has invested in activities that have presented opportunities for continued growth and the Board looks forward with optimism on delivering our growth strategy for the long-term benefit of all our stakeholders.
from 35.50 mins ......2022 year of rebound, RFX is cheap and Dowing see it as a buy ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNUNfCIEiP8
The SARS variants that present as Covid 19, (Delta and Omcron) will, I suspect, be with us for many decades with domination in strain through further mutation. UK, Europe and US are, I suspect at an inflection point to being able to claim herd immunity in the next 6 months. Herd immunity allows disease to spread without imposition to liberty as there is reduced impact as a result of vaccinisation and those that have recovered from exposure to virus.
So, although RFX might not set the world alight, downside influences are receding. I am preparing to add more to my avcount
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1471415156995411968
and another iii takes a 10% stake
I must admit that I am rather bewildered that the share price has remained so weak. Yes, the update was pretty flat but nothing to suggest guidence change. Not long now until the numbers are published and we will all have information upon which to base decision.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1445999146482208769
profit, cash of £13m & forex due for increase from October.lending in Sept 2021 almost back to pre-covid levels of Sept 2019. loan book is also expected to further recover into FY22
Recovering and set for further growth, new stores etc and forex demand relies on opening up of travel. that begins this month...Retail climbing back to pre covid, so all on track over coming months, it's a 'steady as you go' not a rocket stock
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1445999146482208769profitable, cash of £13m & forex due for increase from October.lending in Sept 2021 almost back to pre-covid levels of Sept 2019. loan book is also expected to further recover into FY22 Recovering and set for further growth, new stores etc and forex demand relies on opening up of travel. that begins this month...Retail climbing back to pre covid, so all on track over coming months, it's a 'steady as you go' not a rocket stock
Disappointing though it is to learn of the collapse of 2 energy companies today, the knock on effect is likely to impact further once the cap on prices is lifted on October. 800,000 consumers are affected by todays energy news and although they will not lose supply, it is quite possible that they will be placed on a tarriff that is higher than that to which they are used. The ceiling lift in October could add a further 12% to energy prices and, with the removal of £20 emergency cash each week to benefit claimants, there is a reasonable (though, rather unpleasant) case in favour of RFX for increased turnover.
High gas prices are not as a result of crude oil change, more a reflection of wind; too much in USA from hurricane Ida that knocked out production and too little in Europe to power wind turbines. The world is gradually getting back on its feet and, with the resumption of air travel, confidence to add to my holding in RFX is building.
Downing Strategic, one of the ii's recently invested with a 13 percent stake released a newsletter today with refernce to RFX .. ''Ramsdens’ management team remain confident and are positioning the business for future growth. It has reported a pipeline of six new stores, including debut sites in London and the South East. It i s also investing to further grow the company’s online presence .We believe that Ramsdens is well positioned to resume its growth trajectory as restrictions are lifted, and also outperform weaker competitors as we return to more normalised trading conditions''
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1432398361617960964
ii's increasing holdings, may provide a clue to expectations ahead...
Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust
0% to 13% on 17.6.21
Otus Capital 6% to 10% on 13.7.21
The balance has now shifted, of that I am convinced. With 75% UK population having full vaccine protection, the emphasis is now to ensure that those receiving 1st dose are more than those presenting with Covid19.
Not only are our territorial boundraries opening, but so too are the restrictions to consumers being lowered. Masks are mandatory in public property and shops which provides a reminder that SARS in any variant affords caution, but as each mutation occurs, although there is an increase in the rate of transmision, (morbidity), hospitalisation is reduced atbpeak and mortalility through treatment and mutation is reduced.
Of course, that is not to admit to complacency. There remains for those without vaccine protection real danger, but I just get the feeling that the worst is over and although the journey out is going to be turbulent, recovery is happenning
With the Covid rule changes on 16 August "nailed on", it seems that my pessimism for October was cautious and with new news, the picture changes.
So.... what we have seen thus far is that the vaccine rollout continues apace with more vaccines given each day than cases presenting. Hospitalisations are rising, but seem to be mainly restricted to the un-vaccinated. The UK vaccine rollout has been a success and although the virus will continue to mutate, it seems that with each new variant, although it is more viable and thus more transmissable, its deadly effects appear reduced. What we don't know, of course, are the long term effects.
Businesses that have high levels of debt may find that some re-structuring is necessary to cancel debt either by selling off non-core assets or placing parts of the business in liquidation. This will allow companies such as Ramsdens to acquire teams from businesses direct from the Receiver at better prices and thus accellerate any expansion. These might include, of course, retail premises from independent travel agents known for FX, but with small changes to interiors provide appropriate presence for core activity.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1420353327121027072
Foreign travel opening earlier will be an added bonus to the bottom line, no co-incidence iii took 10% holding on 13.07.21
Shares in airlines and cruise operators are in the limelight again, though it seems that forward bookings are sluggish with consumers booking at the last minute. I remain confident that air travel will return with growing strength from October as a politicians wrestle with vaccine passports and entry requirements for visitors.
I wonder if we begin to see a shift in employment numbers as the furlough scheme unwinds. No idea of the sort of timescale involved to fill the vacancies in some sectors with the surplus from others. As always, the ones bearing the brunt tend to be unskilled or semi skilled and, sadder, young.
Well, well, well…. In a few minutes, residents in England will have restrictions imposed to mitigate the worst effects consequential from exposure to the SARS epidemic that presents as Covid 19
I am hopeful that the vast majority of people aged 40+ are going to be sensible and maintain mask wearing. What I am fearful of, is not a spike in cases, but of a lowering of guard from those in their late teens and early 20’s where 2 courses of vaccination has yet to be administered and at a take up rate that is lower than those in their 30’s and 40’s etc
The first signs of inflation are presenting with another rise in the T44 bond rate and July marks the first month when the furlough scheme begins to wind down. It gives me no pleasure in commenting that this is likely to help the underlying business for RFX, but foreign exchange transactione remain (probably) muted.
Those businesses that have weathered the pandemic fall into 2 distinct categories, feast or famine. Whether the feast continues is immaterial. For those in famine, it is a question of time until the towel is chucked in or 2nd wind comes to the fore.
Whopper of a treeshake today. Glad that I had better thing to do than watch my holdings plummet in value.