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I had watched RFX for a year or so before I started buying as a result of last years very sharp (and IMV temporary) collapse in the SP. During the previous four years they had more than doubled revenue and quadrupled income. It looks as though this is a well-managed , conservative ,but effective company in a number of growth niches, international travel will return , sadly pawnbroking will be highly profitable for the foreseeable future and the price of gold and jewellery is trending upwards. The company is also planning a controlled expansion . On that basis, and the assumption that this will return to something like the previous revenue levels , if not the same trajectory , I am assuming that for the year to Sep 2022 they will be reporting revenues of at least £70 mill and an income(well?)in excess of £6 mill, on a reasonable low double digit PE that would generate a rise in the MC (and hence SP) of 20/30/40%. that fits my profile and I will hold/accumulate at these prices.
The results simply reflect the past. The authority in the narrative to accompany them was muted. And, as a consequence I am not sure what to do.
I don’t care about intraday movement, but the forward guidence was expansion with defined geography, London and the S East as the focus….. and, I’ve got to be honest this does it really fizz me up. South East (as far as I am concerned is Berks/Bucks/ Surrey/Hants/Sussex/Kent etc…., all living in cloud cookoo land in terms of value : worth and it is a long way out from the core roots for Ramsdens.
My hunch is to sell. I’l give it 6 weeks before I hit the sell button, but the managers are not evidencing the subtle signals that warrant support. 3 months is the timescale I have in nind. If there is no PR stream of news weighted to improvement, then pastures new with the residue.
In my 40+ years in building a portfolio, it is rare that I buy fresh shares in a company in which I have held investment unless there is a change of management.
I think this is really positive
FX will come back (not soon but it will)
Pawn/ loans have reduced as furlough has supported households. Furlough is ending and this will mean people have to return to the pawn shop. The same here for precious metal sales. Also gold price is rising so the increasing price will drive sellers
£15m of cash! Wow
Substantially added to my position today. Had to buy 3 times due to limited volume.
Fair news, happy with increase net cash position . Forward earnings should return to previous norms, resulting in gradual uplift of SP as time goes on. A good solid company, with a good management that is currently priced well.
Buy
You are right,but that is why this has huge potential going forward.A vitual break even in a covid year with all the turmoil is a great result.Cash at hand and expansion planned.Well undervalued.I Have doubled my holding today.
Sigh this has to be one of the worst covid recovery stocks out there.
It's gained about 20% since V day, could name others that have seen 200%!
yup, very decent results against a covid back drop, six new sites in London and south east in pipeline and nice cash position. A four week delay in opening up will pass quickly and foreign travel opening up shortly too will hugely boost figures. All set for growth, increased profitability and increasing business ...a lot to like :-)
Market Cap £49m cash in bank £15m undervalued if you ask me. Nice long term hold. Costs under control, things can only improve from here
As there remains uncertainty with travel, (I still feel that autumn is going to be the beginning of the return of discretionary travel), I doubt that the FX element is going to have a significant effect.
The pawnbroking side should begin to pick up now, and I am sorry to say this, that bailiff enforcement of evictions can re-commence. Many companies remain shuttered and those that have re-opened face either feast or famine. There seems no middle ground.
Short term will likely see unemployment rising, but more consequential on those businesses feasting not wishing to commit to expansion and the drip, drip loss of staff as those in famine try their best to stay alive.
PE will only be able to look once it is certain the FX revenue will be there (which we all know it will but when is not certain)
PE are awash with cash and could someone take this private, pump with extra cash for a full roll out of the website and forward fund more stores? yeah
You could look to take this model overseas also especially the watchfinder element?
Hadn't considered the going-private possibility. But I can certainly see it, now that you've mentioned it. It may sound primitive, but looking at the website you can see that RFX has heaps of top-end Rolexes, Pateks, Omegas et al. And that's only one portion of the business and its assets. They run a tight ship, I think. And again - that value!
And with this having been owned by PE it will be well ran. Also means it might be on the target list to take private (when the certainty of FX revenue returns)
This is clearly a very solid company, and still undervalued. I suspect Ramsdens will benefit greatly from the the increase in precious metals prices (which look ready to take off) and the general 'reopening' of the economy. They've also done much in the past 12 months to grow the online proposition. Don't rule out acquisitions here either.
Strong cash position and well run. Not a flashy share, but patience will reward. It seems the market is slowly cycling out of 'growth' shares and into more defensive, 'value' plays. This is one of the few good quality companies listed that offers such value.
Made my first investment in this company.A forgotten share by the looks of it.Some great value in this.Good prospects at a value price.
Watchfinder rumoured to be bought for £250m
Turnover is £110m
Profit is £7.6m
Ramsdens is £12m in jewellery so shows where the growth can get to by possibly extending to premium watches
I mean £250m valuation vs c.£35m for ramsdens
You can see where this could get to by “polishing” a premium brand
Dan, you have made an extremely important and poignant point.... the premium from trading with a subsidiary revenue stream. While ordinary mug punters such as me rarely move the price for quoted companies, the IR teams do occasionally monitor boards, mostly for a giggle, but occasionally when ideas are floated that they can discuss.
No doubt such route has been floated, but perhaps maybe it can be rolled out. After all, domain registration is pennies, hosting equally so and designers are nit exactly in short supply. Fresh and engaging content is the premium to pay
I think this small step from the Government is a huge positive for RFX. A lot of people will happily go to Portugal and they will get their cash from RFX
I think sight on Spain is the bigger one as we know that’s a key destination for a lot of people who might be more “cash” over “cards” for a holiday
Very positive and for me the jewel here is what the business can do online. Watchfinder (although a lot smarter looking) is worth a bundle more and for what reason? None really
Maybe RFX should look into a premium website for some assets? I know we spent £10m on stock but again we have £15m of cash why not buy up a huge chunk of watches to get it started? Support with jewellery
I think that alone could get the attention of a few fund managers. If they themselves start shopping there they go “I wonder who owns this” and it draws them to RFX
We will know a little more in the Government evening briefing tonight as Grant Shapps will provide the details of countries on the Green, Amber and Red lists. As the Chancellor is currently visiting the TTG offices (and I hold shares in TTG) in Hartlepool, I am rather expecting some good news.
Why, and how does this impact RFX?
TTG have been trialling testing at Heathrow in association with iAbra for their Virolens kit. In a nutshell, it is minimally intrusive requiring saliva swab and results given within 20 seconds and 99.8% accurate and 96.7% specificity. Comment in the Hartlepool press suggests that there are going to be Government Orders for machines (and presumably to co-incide with the opening of airways for leisure travel).
My worry that travel would not really be viable before Autumn remains a caution until Europe have got their 3rd wave under control as the danger (that I foresee) is for a 3rd wave in the UK caused through the opening of leisure travel too early and spread by young men and women with minor children. The gradual lowering of travel barriers should reflect in FX transactions and future profit.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1389662056987734021
a 're-opening' stock also picked out in Feb as an IC 'bargain share 2021'. No debt, cash in bank (possible M+A) & profitable, stores fully open now...
Which means Ramsdens can get some well needed currency exchange business. Onwards and upwards.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-may-welcome-vaccinated-britons-without-quarantine-this-summer-58wppfgbs
EU may welcome vaccinated Britons without quarantine this summer
Britons told to be patient for ‘big bang’ in June
Ministers will meet this week to agree a limited “green list” of about a dozen countries that people can travel to from May 17 without the need to isolate for 14 days on their return. They are expected to include Malta, Gibraltar, the Seychelles and Israel, with Portugal also likely to be among them.
The list will be reviewed after three weeks, and ministers are confident that vaccination rates at popular destinations will be high enough by then for people to be able to travel to most of Europe, the Caribbean and the US.
The unemployment figures published today are slightly better than forecast. Not out of woods yet as the UK has yet to fully return to anything approaching normal.
I was actually rather shocked on Saturday when journeying to Hereford, the closest place for us in terms of variety and choice of shop for some retail therapy... an hours drive on A roads! Expected to see Debenhams closed, along with myriad of restaurants, but had not to see so many smaller, independent retailers not just shut, but appeared to have no intention of reopening.
If the opinion piece in Europe pans out, FX might be off the cards for the rest of the year
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/19/vaccine-doubts-could-delay-eu-s-inoculation-target-by-several-months
FWIW I agree on the holidays front, but a rise in unemployment and a strong gold price might actually help RFX ;-). Interested to see where those new stores will be based. Hoping at least one in London!
Late reported trades. OK, so they are pretty chunky. Might give rise to a statement, but it depends if they actually are buys or sells, matched bargains movement between accounts etc. Last day of any volume was back in February.
I'm pretty chilled with my investment in RFX and tend not to get too worried about intraday movement unless accompanied with news. Recent news, now that I have thought more about things over the weekend was pretty neutral and with the economy opening up, attention will be given to unemployment figures as this might be more consequential. I still do not believe that holidays to Europe will start before June and then ONLY once there is reasonable assurance that the pandemic has ben subdued through vaccination
£297k & £167k respectively.