Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
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The placing is at 590p, so buying at 575p might get you a small profit, not immediately but sometime soon perhaps.
Offer for the company isn't too far away now. Come on Steve, we'll take £10 a share.
Got to admit I am jealous. I put my money into Barrett 😔. Been a pain watching Barrett try and stay still whilst watching redraw perform. Certainly been bit of a roller-coaster at times but basically if I put my money into redrow I would have gone from 4.30 to over 6, I would be laughing! The only reason I don't put money in to redrow now is that I don't know how much higher this can go. Good luck with future gains and well done if you got in in the 400s.
Don't think this an issue for rdw, could be for bkgh, crst and possibly bvs, but could be an indicator of things to come. I think PreFin results should be published 28th, which I have no doubt will be excellent again. Do you know when Steve Morgan became chairman? I suspect it will coincide with change of fortunes of the company. BoL
No doubt Redrow will be under some pressure to do something similar as TW announces they will be reimbursing £130m or 3% of their total assets to householders who have been sold houses on ground leases with onerous terms
You know Steve Morgan is an excellent chairman, 40% shareholder and is the man who is really running this company. rdw were struggling about 5 years ago and he turned it around. I read your article on Greg on the bvs board and he sounds like he knows his stuff. As I said I am watching them with interest, but don't expect any great changes in sp for about a year. I believe bvs is run by accountants - not builders, and middle management needs to change, can't be done overnight. BoL
Assuming new CEO of bovis can turn around the company, it will take time, and a common idea is that he will make existing situation look worse than it really is (to make his performance look better). Bovis needs a culture change and that will also take time. You could well be right, but I would move slowly from rdw to bvs, only topping up bvs when a profit realised. I will watch bvs with interest but not investing there yet. BoL
Gleeson is better
Redrow flying after being upgraded to "overweight" by JP Morgan: http://www.digitallook.com/news/broker-recommendations/jp-morgan-upgrades-countryside-redrow-as-it-reviews-uk-housebuilders--2610942.html
Haha.. Yes 2227 I remember our comparison very well! Very interesting to look back on- we got it spot on with RDW. And as for Gleeson, well.. that is now nearly double the price of TEF and was the pick of the bunch by far! All bar SMP outperformed TEF significantly (mainly due to issues around its 9 elms development) and the basket of those 3 certainly outperformed TEF. That being said, TEF looks relatively good value now at nearly half the price of Gleeson, but RDW looks similarly good value too so I can't see TEF closing the gap!
Interesting take on the update! http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/175208/analyst-thinks-redrow-s-unscheduled-update-could-be-peacock-fanning-its-tail-after-bovis-bid-rejected-175208.html
Strong update today by RDW- £306mn Profit before tax is well ahead of current broker consensus and RDW have outlined this at the minimum that will be achieved for the year ending June 17. Bodes well, and RDW has a tendency to under promise and over deliver.
I agree with you in part RIch- look what happened to Woodrow's and Wimpey's back in 2008, the merger nearly destroyed the combined entity, Taylor Wimpey, outright right at the end of the cycle! Ans a similar story for Bdev! Could that happen here? I agree no one knows the length of this cycle, especially given article 50 and EU wide elections are imminent, certainly some risks on the horizon. But then again, that being said, this time around no one has large debts which were what nearly bankrupted Bdev and Tw. at the turn of the last cycle, so the risks are very much minimized here as the GFRD offer is an all equity offer and would simply expand GFRD's balance sheet incurring no debt. Bovis would definitely benefit from being taken over by a well run company like RDW or GFRD with strong management structure and internal controls, and I do think the size of the landbank could complement RDW who's landbank is very thin given their growth aspirations. I think GFRD is the better fit though geographically, and their CEO was bought in from TW. specifically to ramp up their linden homes house building arm- badly run bvs looks just the ticket! Very interesting times.. maybe someone will swallow up the more digestible bite sized Inland Homes which looks cheaper than even the dog Bovis on net assets!
Reuters latest news is that bids from both Redrow and Galliford Try were rejected as "undervaluing" Bovis. I held Redrow shares till recently - sold as price tends to peak in first quarter of year then slip back. don't really understand why they would want to expand a well run company at present time given risks of slowdown with Brexit and cyclical nature of housebuilding. Rich
Don't know why rdw would want to buy bvs. Massive challenge to change the culture. Rdw doing very nicely as it is by being run by a builder, not accountants.
Nige, I've just sent the message by email to Nige_W@hotmail.com so hopefully that's arrived? I only signed up for the Premium whatsit temporarily so I could send you the message. If the recipient also has to be signed up, well, the Premium is about as much use as a chocolate teapot then, isn't it? So next job is to cancel it again - probably one of the briefest memberships they've had!
Hi Strictly Just searched my EMail (don't look at it very often, deleted 230 messages) and didn't find your message, so I looked thru Junk mail and found a message from LSEShares referring to your message. Unfortunately you have to subscribe to lseshres (Min £5.99 per month for Premium membership) which I do not. If you could copy your message to EMail and send it directly to me, @hotmail.com (same name) I will read it with interest. Almost put worksheets together and can send them directly as attachments. Do you use Excel and Visual Basic? BoL
Nige, I've just sent you a message directly but, never having used that facility before, I don't know if you have to check an inbox, or whatever, to pick it up? So I'm just letting you know on here.
Hi Strictly Thanks for your reply. I have saved your post and will see if I can set up a system using Pbv as you suggested. Lots of Work! The Heard moves depending on the leader - psn yesterday then tw later today. A surge in the leaders sp is typically double the sp movement of the rest, so it is a matter of timing. I was underwhelmed by psn movement today - 0.2% increase. On +ve side Margin increased from 21.9% to 24.8% and Cash from 570m to 913m,but with that huge increase in cash, why have they delayed Fin Div from 01/04/16 to 03/07/17 (still 110pps FXDivDt 15/06/17, Yld 5.42%)? Nice to get 25pps 31/03/17 (IXDivDt 09/03/17, Yld 1.23%) but I was expecting 5.42% then. I will hold for the little Divi then sell some time later and buy back again prior FXDivDate. Same model as tw, FXDivDate around 02/06/17. Might be of interest to you, From Company Refs 02/17 Coy, Prce, MCap, Per, Peg, Pbv, CurPrc psn, 1920, 5914, 8.97, 0.95, 2.39, 2030 tw., 168, 5484, 8.59, 0.95, 2.01, 178 bdev,473, 4758, 8.20, 1.67, 1.19, 509 bkg, 2840, 3939, 6.90, 0.00, 2.16, 2915 bwy, 2490, 3055, 6.96, 0.72, 1.64, 2594 rdw, 441, 1630, 7.40, 0.00, 1.60, 494 crst, 499, 1269, 7.23, 0.00, 1.99, 542 bvs, 818, 1100, 7.85, 1.53, 1.15, 768 tef, 324, 243, 7.16, 0.00, 1.30, 348 MCap, Per, Peg based on Prce, CurPrc changes them all. Unfortunately CoyRefs does not have Historical Pbv. So Top 5 of 9: Best Pbv bvs, bdev, tef, rdw, bwy Best Per bkg, bwy, tef, crst, rdw Best Peg bwy, =psn/tw, bvs, bdev Tots bwy - 1+4+5 = 10 bvs - 5+2 = 7 tef - 3+3 = 6 bdev - 4+1 = 5 rdw - 4+1 = 5 bkg - 5 psn - 4 tw. - 4 crst - 2 You will be happy with this no doubt, bwy No 1, tef No 3, but crst at 9? Per, Peg ... based on historical data and Analysts forecasts - psn smashed those numbers to bits! Good time to buy psn Imho! BoL
If you go with your view that all the builders, sans Bovis, are much of a muchness performance-wise (which I don’t necessarily go with but let’s say for argument that they are) then you are still left with price to book values to compare for relative value as an investor. And the house builders’ share prices move like a herd, in that they more or less mostly move together but single animals in a herd do peel off from time to time for whatever reason. And this is when to be the Wolf of London SE (not quite the same ring to it as the Wolf of Wall Street, I grant you) and pick one off. An interesting exercise, that I first thought to do around 2006, is to download a long-term price graph for each builder off FT.com website, which has a really good graphing tool, and overlay that with a set of grid lines for 1.0 x BV, 1.2 x BV, 1.4 x BV, etc. You obviously need to pick up details of the BVPS for the years going back, so there’s a bit of legwork involved if you don’t have these, but the end result is seriously illuminating and shows the PBV quite accurately at any point at a glance going back for as many years as you’ve carried out the exercise for. Do this for several builders of equal standing and you can compare and clearly see the opportunities that opened up historically for switching across, backwards & forwards, between shares to your financial advantage because their relative PBVs have crossed and re-crossed each other. My experience has been that seeing that those opportunities have always been there gave confidence in the notion that this is likely to carry on and therefore provide the basis for a whole investing strategy. And so it has, ever since. Fundamentally, having latched on to house builders in 2003 as the sector to be in, this has provided the whole foundation of investment performance for myself and the people in my circle who are in the same game. Nige, I’m not trying to persuade you, or anyone else, to change how you invest - but merely offering a bit of detail on something that has worked really well for me for the past 14 years since I first properly “got” the whole opportunity of investing in house builders.
Hi Strictly The reason I abandoned searching for value in builders is because I don't think any are much better than any of the others. Bvs is the cheapest - needs a culture change, not just Ceo, while bkgh and psn are not such great value but have the most cash which, Imho justifies a higher PBV. I am not a day trader, but got my total trades for float down to about 20 Action Dates per year - ie (20 buys, 20 Sells), but this does not include overlaps ie right now I have 20k in psn and 6k in tw. My new system calcs % increase over number of weeks for all RNS's, most of which are not worth making into Action Dates. After eliminating those you are left with PreFin, PreInt and IntRes (if no PreInt RNS declared) and occasionally MStat1 (ManStat between IntRes and PreFin - psn and tw). Also FExDiv date - must hold until sp recovers, so you always must be flexible. As I said before share price will eventually catch up with value, but I read somewhere, the market is always right and if you disagree then you are wrong. Must say this is a stupid idea - the Dotcom bust meant all our Tech Stocks became cheap, so were bought by Rest of World. I am getting to the point of evaluating my position (how well it works), but I have changed a lot of decision making, so Analysis is meaningless. Previously there was little difference between LTBH and my RNS system - my gains were counteracted by extra trading cost, but hope to do better! As you can see my system is to follow sp trends, rather than value. Just need to improve my system, and know when to bail out (30 Years?) BoL
Nige, if you take the gain in book value since the 2007 pre-crunch high, then, up to June last year when I made the calculation including dividends, Bellway are up by around 90% and Persimmon up by around 70%, so there is a significant gap in favour of Bellway. But the bigger value difference, again in favour of Bellway, is PBV. Currently, Bellway are around 1.6 and Persimmon around 2.4, so Persimmon are 50% more expensive for a somewhat less successful most recent eight year performance. Where Persimmon have scored is in successfully bigging up their own performance. Firstly, by a more substantial post-crunch write-down making their subsequent returns on equity seem better. Secondly, by announcing a nine year dividend plan some years back which seemed stunning at the time if just taken at face value but, although a bold move, wasn’t anything special in the light of having done the maths on all the builders going forwards. But the market seems to be still awarding them the cigar for that, so fair play to them. To sum up, though, from a value perspective, I don’t see any contest. But you are pursuing a different way of doing this and of course you may prove to be right in terms of short term price movement if your method calls this right more often than calling it wrong. Although most of what I’m doing has come from learning and, hopefully, understanding the nature of the particular market I’m in based on experience and relevant research & number crunching, I did also gain a lot from Warren Buffett’s ideas in the early days. And I absolutely agree with his view that so-called Efficient Market Hypothesis is hogwash. So it’s then a matter of how you apply this? Taking a value investing approach has certainly worked for me over the 17 years I’ve been doing this, and is also the only one that makes sense to me. However it may well be that what you’re doing will also work for you? But my bottom line is that I would still come back to my previous post, and suggest considering having a way of checking how well your method is actually working for you over the long term?
Great company bwy - the only one I have continually held since I started investing again in 2013. Using Last in First Out method I still hold 350 at 1423 (12/12/13), 162 at 1520 (20/12/13) and 20 at 2470 (25/01/17). Last due to buying 10k worth (float) then selling 10k worth, leaving 20 more shares as the price increased. This gives 70% profit - just wish my other companies did that well! Your method of going all the way back to 2003 I think is good for finding solid companies (not too badly affected by the Banking crisis) - psn is another. I'd like to go into Per/peg's relative strengths ... but in the middle of reprogramming as usual. I think there won't be much difference between the two, other than psn has far more cash. My 20k Float is in psn right now prior to Final Results 27/02/17 and ExDivDate around 16/03/17 of 110pps = 5.74%. I don't expect a surge in price after Finals (already built into share price after good PreFinal RNS). Also got 6k Float in tw, Fin Res 28/02/17 but Special ExDivDate not until around 01/06/17. BoL