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I know nothing about tef and am on holiday in aus at present. I actually think a deal with eu will happen and whatever it looks like in reality it will be presented as a huge success . Dare i say with a fanfare of Trump ets?
Ps
PreInt 09/01/20, sorry
Hi Taverham
Are you an Ex Tef investor, and resident in Aus or on holiday there?
Heard its fat too hot there right now, I remember 1966 when hot all summer and was hoping for a thunderstorm, which never happened.
Anyway, given Rel Price 04/01/13 = 100 crst cur RPrice 165, csp 194 (who didn't start trading until 19/02/16), bvs 226 and bkgh 289. Also gle (not much of a builder - buy and sell land) 528, (but after losing Ceo Sp has (comparatively) dropped recently). This doesn't look good for crst!
Also, I don't think a Deal (with EU) is going to happen which means the Sp's of above will slump as Service sector sucked out of London to EU, which is why I keep out of LSE.
Rdw going well recently and I think a surge due in bdev soon (PreInt around 09/01/18).
I wish you a happy New Year and glad you took no offence from my last post.
Nige, thanks. My investment was based on the premise that the London market had hurt them but an upturn in their fortunes was imminent and the yield underpinned the sp. Once they recover [ha ha] I will up sticks.
Merry Christmas , from a sunny Australia!
Ps
Just got my Relative Price / Strength Graphs working for LSE. For last 8 years their Sp is a disaster compared to the others.
Imho, a badly run company. Miles behind bkgh and csp and bvs to a lesser extent.
I suggest sell crst and buy more rdw or bdev.
Happy Christmas and BoL
Hi Taverham
Think good move from tw to rdw. I avoid crst (and all other LSE ), so don't know much about them. Still think rdw got a bit of catching up to do, but up about 1.9% this week rest about 0.8%, so getting there.
BoL
I sold tw at £2 and switched in here a few pence below current sp so also happy with that. Not happy with crst - why no big uplift there?
Hi Taverham
After the election most Bldrs increased a lot in price, but not rdw and has been playing catch up ever since. So looking good for rdw for 2 reasons. Got 31% float in rdw and already float 10% up, so very happy.
BoL
But maybe more action when market opens as Sunday newspaper tip outlining analyst target price above £12 should attract buyers and investors will show interest imv on account of returns.
Still here. Made a small sell at 741 but kept most. Bought in this year because I felt macro economic risks are being given far too weight in the share price. Macro risk seems to have reduced further since then.
Just posted this on tw board due to apparent lack of interest here.
"Working late again, but from RelPrice graph easy to see when Brexit vote was (between 17/06/16 and 24/06/16) but RelSt graph shows rdw increasing from 92.7 to 101.7 during the same time (while all others plummeting). No idea why rdw should be immune to Brexit, but not entirely - it now has lowest Per (so best value) cos holds the least cash, and the market expects a housing slump after Brexit, so rdw less prepared for it, but won't happen anyway.
The more I look into rdw the better it seems, only issue they lost Main Man (founder, Ceo, chairman and main shareholder Steve Morgan), who has retired again - last time he did that rdw quickly went into decline until he returned.
In fact from RelStn graphs I can almost predict when he left as Ceo early in 2014, and when he came back as Chairman early 2015. So considering moving some float from psn or bdev to rdw (no float in tw right now)."
Bol to holders and hope to hear from you.
Rdw has just overtaken bdev in Sp at 637 for first time since 03/05/19 (rdw 591).
Means nothing at all except bdev underperforming recently rather than rdw doing particularly well.
Now is the question of style, do you invest in bdev (cos undervalued) or rdw (cos got the momentum)?
Things to bear in mind, rdw just paid a massive divi, XDivDt around 03/05/19 causing the decline as a leaving gift from Chairman, and last time he left Sp went pear shaped.
No apparent reason for bdev decline, so maybe a safer option. Anyway I'm not doing nowt, so not much help!
BoL
Nice. Difficult to argue with £119.5m in the bank .
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/redrow-agrees-1195-million-sale-to-rental-homes-firm-in-colindale-a4233066.html
Redrow making agrressive moves into BTR.Strike whilst the iron is hot or cold feet about private sales ! Nevertheless good defensive strategy
Hi Strictly
Thanks for the message, I will have a look at the blog, just need to finish my updating my system but shouldn't take long now.
Bdev going very nicely last few days, think it could reach 650 to 700 before XDivDt (613 now).
Going to invest some float in bwy next week. Still holding quite a lot of cash, but reinvesting it now cos No Deal beginning to look impossible.
BoL
Nige,
I was impressed with the chutzpah of the new chairman in how he represented the dividends paid during the year, but at the same time I as somewhat underwhelmed by the results, with the upshot that I've spent most of today (because I was traveling all day yesterday) shifting Redrow down from having been around 90% of my holdings (because the perceived value gap up to yesterday, IMO, warranted that - whereas that gap has now not only evaporated it's gone the other way...) to now being just 21% in Redrow.
Fortunately for me, the market so far has seen things rather differently - which gave me a good opportunity to make the trades with an additional bounce of gain.
Bellway, my benchmark share, is now my largest holding along with some Crest which has also come back into the frame now...
If you're interested in the detail of this then have a look on the blog, as I've written extensively about all this there - so I don't want to get into another long spiel here...
Strictly
Redrow looking very undervalued in my humble opinion. So I've jumped in :-)
I'm expecting this to be quite volatile as people react & over-react to good/bad news about Brexit and the economy so it might be a good trading share.
After all the gyrations in the share price, I think we'll end up somewhere way above the current £6.
Consesus broker target 759p. https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/shares/share/RDW/broker-views.
I can justify over 800p to myself but putting in caution I get to about 750p which is then backed up by the broker targets.
No debt. Defined benefit pension scheme is small. Highly profitable. Strong balance sheet. Room to absorb big hits to the economy. What concerns do people have? It would be good to hear what they are so i can check my thinking.
Hi Strictly
I am hoping they will be very good (topped up float) but maybe it is better that they are very bad (see bdev and psn).
Doesn't matter much if value is your mantra, cos value will be realised in the end.
The loss of SM will not affect these results but might do in the future (has previous). I would like you to keep us informed on this board of your feelings for rdw (by your numbers).
Sill not too happy about the Special 30p Divi, seems to me I got a Divi but Sp drop > Divi. A bit like bkgh buy backs - not sure if these things help the Sp. I suppose I just don't like interference with the normal process.
BoL
Hi Albany
The amount of free shares issued was the same as the decrease in number of shares held. So effectively a share buyback. Since less shares issued Sp should increase by that amount (about 5%), but no sign of that.
My plan was to sell float in bdev to buy tw (spec 06/06/19), but on hold now and hoping for 5% inc in rdw price.
Not sure of share buybacks, bkgh been doing it for a while and has that driven up their Sp?
BoL
Morning Nige
Thanks for that,got mine yesterday afternoon,lets see how long Crest Nicholsons
take to go into account now.
Hi Albany
Can't find Circular RNS now (which announced Pay Date), but from my prev post it said 18/04/19 (tomorrow).
Hi mushroom
Apologies for confusing you with Bamps. Psn worth a look? Up 2.8% this week, tw up 0.5%, bdev down 0.8%.
recovery from interview? but still about 18% to go.
Enjoy your holiday in Portugal.
BoL
Hi Everyone
Have not had my B share divi yet,has anybody else got theirs,thought it
was meant to be the 16th?
Thanks
Hi Nige, Thanks for the info. My newly constructed system is suggesting that I will keep Redrow shares for the B share ex-div date and also probably redistribute into BDEV. Btw I haven't been ill, I believe you may have been confusing me with Bamps. I'm on an extended motorhome trip down in Portugal. Nice way to put it all in perspective. :)
Hi mushroom
Surge should have happened by now cos Int XDivDt was 23/03/19 (PayDt 05/04/19) which means 30p divi (spec) only justifies Sp 600.
Very happy cos my av price 502 and float av 583. I intend to sell float after 05/04/19 (at min 600) so Divi for free.
Divi data in rdw Financial Diary on this site and Spec (share issue) in rdw RNS's Circular on this site. See also
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=rdw
Neither Diary nor Web site above list extra shares, another reason for no surge.
Hope you get well soon - BoL
Thanks for that Nige. I was looking everywhere for those dates. Couldn't find them for some reason!