Ricardo Plc Share Chat (RCDO)

My calcs show an uplift of about 0.7% if you hold on to RCDO shares from today until the tail end of October, which is the earliest to receive the full £4.30 per share (hard earned experience tells me if could be later!).

Didn't see the point so sold my 2013 shares bought 3 weeks ago. I am now RCDO free for the last time unless there is an inexplicable (and highly unlikely) dip to about £4.20.

Any suggestions how I might spend my £30 of gains? 3 pints and a bag of salt and vinegar in a London pub maybe?

Must have heard me.

Dont mess with me, I am a powerful man with influence!!

Its now September and about time this was concluded.

How about a statement from the awful board who destroyed this proud old company?

What is going on here, does anybody have any idea? Something feels odd to me!

So now have had chance to vote on this WSP offer and the court hearing thing.

I voted against as I think RCDO fair value is higher than the offer, my guess is about 600.

I think it was potentially worth more not so long back maybe 800/1000, but has depreciated somewhat, not entirely sure why, but I guess you have to blame management.

I think that management now sees this as an opportunity to get out with their pockets still fat, so are just grasping it.

I also do not like this old company attached to an engineering name I know well being sold in this way.

And of course it is a British company going to Canada, a friend but still foreign.

And lastly I nearly always vote against what any board recommends as a matter of principle.

The only board I know that might have been any good was the one I was once chairman of.

Even that wasn't all that.

I know it's pretty obvious, but the only way the price would make sense is if another offer is considered possible.

This would be higher? And so WSP could and might increase their offer.

I have no knowledge this is happening, but somebody must have or think they have.

Lets wait and see,

or maybe sell up?

Well that has confused me. The bid is above the offer price and wont be received for months assuming it goes through. Alternate bid expected?

Could someone explain to the feeble brained, ie me?

Must take my hat off to Kozz. He put the idea into my head of buying some more RCDO just to hold and profit from when the takeover was settled, which I dismissed But then reconsidered. They were 421.16 last Wednesday to buy and for some inexplicable reason were 425.15 to sell this morning. So I decided it wasn't really worth waiting 2 or 3 months and exited with 80 quid profit. Buy a few steaks and beers wont it! Thanks matey!

Good luck Kozz. I agree that it wasn't really hanging on for! I think the announcement indicates completion of the sale in Q4, se maybe 4 months away?

I just sold my smallish stake for 53% profit, I figured the wait for 2% wasn't worth it especially given the climate with Trump. Pretty sure I'll do better elsewhere.

I agree with your reasoning Kozz, it is a small gain which should be nailed on unless there are due diligence problems (I assume that hurdle is yet to be cleared?). It should not be too long in being waived through though there will need to be a shareholder vote i guess. So soon accessed and which could be useful depending on your tax position (when not in an ISA/ SIPP wrapper) to use CGT allowance or even better to use brought forward GGT losses.

Just got a quote with iWeb for a bottom line cost of £42373.28 for 10,000 shares. So £626.72 profit or 1.5% profit.

According to a quick Google search an agreed takeover should take 8-10 weeks, so maybe an annualised 7.5% tax free return? You pays your money and takes your choice! Good luck.

John

Thanks John, can't imagine this will fall through although always some risk. I'd expect as with other stocks I've held in takeovers, this will net holders 430p (minus broker charges if applicable) The stamp/other fees should be absorbed by "the buyer" and given it's a foreign body they'll probably find ways to avoid some of these. It's only 2%, but still could be significant for large holders.

Hi Chat,

Hanson did the same thing a few years later. He split his own co. and 1 FTSE-100 company became 4 FTSE-100 companies!

j

Hi there JS-W.

Many thanks for your response and information, I have a brief recollection of your info.

CHAT

In the mid-1990s Forte was subject to a similar 'invasion' by Gerry Robinson, who actually ran the co with Rocco Forte. Eventually Robinson's hostile takeover succeeded and he split Forte into two parts: one managed by Rocco Forte (RF Hotels) and the other managed by Robinson (i think that became Compass Gp). The value it unlocked was huge. My Forte shares doubled overnight & Robinson walked off with hundreds of millions.

j

So on 18 June there will be a General Meeting. I do not think that Science Group would have forced a GM unless they have lined up the troops and think they are going to win. If the motion is carried Mark Clare will no longer be a Director and the Chairman.

Has anyone knowledge of a parallel historical situation? What happened? Did the share price rise or collapse? What did the other directors do? What happened to the Company? Was it followed by a Takeover? Answers in a Sealed enve..........

CHAT

Https://www.newarab.com/news/uk-police-roll-out-armoured-cars-tested-palestinians

.....2 minutes is not enough.

Go deeper.

This is Ricardo in UK doing the business.

Lol ,2 minutes of research will have told you they have sold the defence element of the Business.

Ricardo are trading with Israeli Defence company, poor timing.

https://www.facebook.com/BBCLondon/videos/-have-you-seen-the-mets-new-sandcatsthe-new-armoured-vehicles-for-high-risk-arme/2248388852297785/

The RNS from Science Group on 2 June 2025 marks a strategic escalation in the Ricardo boardroom campaign. ISS has come out in favour of Science Group’s vote to remove Ricardo’s chair. ISS is the main proxy firm most big institutions follow, especially index funds.

No public comment from the big holders yet, but silence usually means they’re backing change or waiting to see momentum build. I’d say this pushes the odds well in favour of the vote passing.

Still holding — feels like 300p+ is on the cards if the board flips and a proper recovery plan follows. Let’s see how it plays.

Or, Schroeder’s, who already hold a 3% stake in Ricardo declare alignment with Science Group.

Suspect we will 2 RNSs tomorrow one saying SG has accumulated and 1% and another institution/fund announcing a 1% reduction.

Someone seems to have spent in excess of £1,800,000 open 680,000 shares today in two hits of 340,000. Someone positioning themselves for the vote at the General Meeting?

Too many thumbs wHither Apologies - Chat

Wither goest thou? ................................. CHAT

Well a whole morning of buying seems to have pushed the price on, will it stick?

You are right we are in a waiting game but a lot is happening we cannot see. It looks like there has been 3 blocks of institutional buying today so far but low liquidity has meant the price has risen. The institutions are not selling out in any rush and are probably waiting for better value whoever controls Ricardo. Do they support Ricardo or are they just not willing to take a low ball offer? I had Ricardo's financial results at 3rd June, now it looks like 30th June is the date. More time to garner support, a possible white night? All quite possible. Some things are missing, no strategic actions to raise the price to make buying too costly, very little Ricardo Director buys no defensive actions beyond RNS. Currently its just hissy fits in emails that only affect the mood for retail investors when it is the institutional investors that hold the vast majority of Ricardo shares and who would not be moved by RNS attacks on credibility when they have brought in after doing their own research..

It does seem to be very quieter atm (‘I don’t like it sir, it’s too quiet”). The volume of trading is minimal as a proportion of the 60+mm shares in issue. If there was something afoot I’d expect to see much more volume.

Thanks Jeremy, that makes good sense. I suppose the next question will be if and when they intend to bid as I imagine they must having bought so heavily and declared. Will the BoD have sufficient backing to resist or have they lost all credibility. You’d hope they would at the very least try to push the offer price up!

Ricardo fits Science groups portfolio so a good fit. Science group have a track history of buying fundamentally good companies that have taken a sentiment hit and aggressively attacking their credibility. They have been actively buying all the time but strategically (look for rapid activity or multiple decimal point buys) but because their offer price must legally be above the highest price paid their acquisition has been done in a way not to raise the share price. However institutions have not sold out of their positions so it is only retail shares that are available which is why on very low volumes the price has risen as liquidity has dried up at the lower prices.

Roll on a bid. I bought into a company that developed innovative tank and aero engines in both world wars, Grands Prix engines before WW2, Formula 1 gearboxes, engines that went into McLaren road cars, advanced Military vehicles. Now we get a blinkered push in an increasing delayed green agenda that most the public simply don't believe in or want. This business is likely to be delayed time and time again due to political pressure which will destroy the timetable put forward by the nobodies running Ricardo.

I agree the RNS uses that phrase at least 10 times across business units. This can imply potential rather than locked-in certainty, and investors sometimes view it as a soft proxy for saying, "We think things are coming… but can’t guarantee them." Promises of future cost cutting are commonplace in corporate strategy, but without evidence of already-executed actions, they’re often seen as “hopeful.” As I have said there’s no upward revision to guidance, just confirmation they’ll be within the analyst range. That can feel a bit limp.

However secured revenue stats are strong: Energy & Environment: 94% revenue secured, Rail: 93% secured, Performance Products: 95% secured, A&I: 86% secured. These are substantive metrics, not just narrative fluff. This is operational momentum, even if not fully booked revenue.

The RNS breaks down improvement by business unit (e.g. EE utilisation up 3pts). This shows measurable operational tightening, which matters over the medium term. Cash conversion above 85%, which is a genuinely strong metric. That’s hard to fake and shows good underlying discipline. It cites actual figures (£3M H1 savings, £2M in H2, targeting £10M more) and backs them with utilisation improvements and third-party validation. That suggests a solid internal transformation is underway.

Sentiment matters at the moment and this RNS does little to move the needle, trading has been light so little reaction either way.

Yeah very much a keep the wheels turning update. Without anything in particular to say it was inevitable that it was going to come across as a bit meh as the kids say.

I also thought a pretty poor RNS. Smaller companies often try to enthuse potential/investors with news that isn't quite there but which they hope will turn into technical milestones or sales orders. Ricardo is (to me) a medium sized company. The RNS today contained a large number of references to things, mainly sales orders, being 'in the pipeline' which is a phrase open to a great deal of interpretation - and one which suggests hope triumphing over certainty.

For a company of this size to release an RNS like this was a disappointment to me. I think there was quite a lot of hot air and that it was light on certainty.

Really disappointed with the RNS today. The numbers suggest Ricardo is stabilizing and potentially recovering faster than many expected. So Ricardo is rallying shareholders to resist, implying any move by Science Group is for its own benefit, not other investors. However the RNS states several times that Ricardo expects to deliver trading within the range of analyst expectations but those expectations have Ricardo valued between 230p and 540p (average 382) so in their statement they have pegged a price of 230p which is why the share tanked on what should have been a positive and bullish recovery RNS. Ricardo in my estimation dropped the ball here.

Science group have to make an offer at or above the maximum price they have paid which I recon is 255p. However based on previous takeovers by science group eg. TP where they offered 67% above their accumulation price there is upside. Institutional holders (the vast majority of holders) have not changed their holdings substantially and they too would have an entry price of around 400p. So SG would have to offer a price that they would not reject. There are a couple of news items that are key. One is the strategic update due mid April ie. now, the fact that it has not happened is concerning as if they cannot meet self imposed timelines it plays to SG narrative of poor management. If the update is poor it reinforces that narrative but if strongly positive and points to a good results report in early June then expect a tick up in price and therefore any final offer, obviously a lower offer if poor and late. So if poor offer probably 300p if Ricardo on the road to a strong recovery and instutional holders see returns to pre drop norms the could be offer in 380-400+ range.

So what might a realistic offer be? As you say, the writing seems to be on the wall with the current management and direction. There are many of us with small holdings who feel a buyout could be a welcome relief but don’t want to face a big loss. I need something approaching 400p to give me any sort of return but that looks a little unrealistic in this climate if SAG have acquired their current position for significantly less. What is the true value of the business?

I started trying to inform myself about Ricardo as a value opportunity when Science Group RNSs revealed their stake building. I worked with some very impressive Ricardo automotive engineers (my clients) in the 90/00s.

I think I have watched / listened to about 50 trading updates, half yearly and full year results from various AIM and FTSE 350 companies in the last 18 months.

The Ricardo results webinar on 5th March 2025 showed, in my view, the weakest grip by management on their business that I have yet seen or heard as demonstrated during a webinar format. The main takeaway point I was left with was 'we are not very good at invoicing and we are definitely going to try harder to invoice more, earlier and we will even try to write into contracts how much we can invoice and when, which will make a big difference next year'.

Both the CEO (who spoke only extremely briefly over the slide deck) and the CFO appeared wholly reliant on scripts, from which they read rigidly. They hid behind the slide deck (not showing their faces, nor facial expressions, wholly missing the opportunity to engage with the audience) not only throughout the 28 min slide deck presentation but also then a big 'Q & A' slide which shielded them for a further 12 minutes.

I wondered of the CEO and CFO if either knew what the right questions were and concluded that neither had the answers. That's very critical I know - but this was a good company a time ago and the owners deserve better management.

All this left me with several thoughts:

- my small purchase at £2.50 may have been too high a price, lacking the safety margin I like to buy with

- if the CEO and CFO have stacked the company with people in their own image, there may be a huge cultural dead weight within the company, holding it back

- if other investors have done similar research to me, there will likely be a large number of willing sellers should an offer with some sort of premium by Science Group ever be put to shareholders

- the rhetoric of Science Group RNSs about Ricardo performance and a poorly performing board and particularly the chair seem absolutely to be a fair challenge.

Keep going SAG. Show the door to the inept oat milk latte drinking board and give us an engineering firm back worthy of the name of Harry Ricardo. Design and engineer the bloody windmills, not be a fluffy wuffy green consultancy when carbon neutral is being pushed back decades at a time as Governments realise it cannot be achieved especially with Trumps policies which we are stuck with for another 4 years.

Getting very tumultuous

The 20% threshold is a key strategic investment milestone, achieved in just 7 weeks, at an average cost (including fees) of 236 pence per share. Science Group may or may not increase its shareholding in Ricardo.

 

At 4 April 2025, adjusting for the capital allocated to the strategic investment, Science Group retained significant cash resources of £21.2 million and net funds of £9.3 million. The Group's recently renewed revolving credit facility (£30 million plus £10 million accordion, expiring in 2030) remains undrawn.

 

The Science Group shareholding was acquired at levels last seen in 2010 following disappointing Ricardo operating performance and investor loss of confidence. However, since the Ricardo Board was evidently unable to manage the company through the "market headwinds" of 2024, there remains little confidence in the ability to navigate the global storms developing in 2025.

Another increase. Come on Science Group, you make a decent offer an shareholders will accept to leave this ****show behind. Woke management have killed a once superb company.

Bring on a bid for 400+ pence. They would have my support to exit this.

...now above 17%.

Buying from Gresham House, this may be support for Ricardo, lets see if it continues.

Sorry about the formatting in my last message best to check my word format spacing. Also if anyone thinks the 315p is a fair price it is not my fair range is 380-400 which is the analysts range for fair price.

Using previous SG tactics and standard corporate tactics this is my read on the next steps

Date Range: Mar 25 – Apr 15

• Action/Event: Public campaign + pressure letters

• SG Objective: Undermine board, build tension

• Ricardo Response Needed: Activate investor comms + defence file

Date Range: Apr 10 – Apr 25

• Action/Event: Possible GM requisition or governance motion

• SG Objective: Test shareholder alignment

• Ricardo Response Needed: Prepare legal rebuttal + proxy support

Date Range: Apr 20 – May 15

• Action/Event: Accumulate up to 29.99% stake

• SG Objective: Maximise leverage without full bid

• Ricardo Response Needed: Monitor daily filings, apply pressure

Date Range: May 15 – June 10

• Action/Event: Possible formal offer circa 315p

• SG Objective: Win backing with “fair value” narrative

• Ricardo Response Needed: Demand revaluation / explore white knight

Date Range: June – July 2025

• Action/Event: Shareholder vote or AGM confrontation

• SG Objective: Push board changes / complete offer

• Ricardo Response Needed: Mobilise base, show strategy clarity

Lets hope Ricardo can find a white knight

As price now seems to been in steady recovery mode from the depths, I think today's RNS gives further context as well as various posts here, including JeremyCC's handy 19 March summary of SAG holdings changes

Blog not viard

Thanks once again JeremyCC. As has been said on this viard earlier SAG do seem to work thèse takeovers on the bas is of slowly slowly catchey monkey. Incidently, it does make a change to have a civilised conversation on one of thèse blogs so thanks for that also.

27th Feb

I am a premium member on investing.com which has paid for itself in analysis. You say there are other chucks of shares but it looks like the rule of diminishing returns if you look at holding updates. 27% SG announces 8%, 11 days later that increase 4% to 12% holdings, 1 day later 2% increase to 14% 2 days later 1% to 15% and 1% more to 16% *6* days later. It looks like it is getting harder to find shares. It is tea leaf reading so take it or leave it.

Thank you very much JeremyCC for the info. As a matter of interest where did you find that info. It looks as though there are several sources of chunks of shares that SAG could negotiate to buy in the coming months if they feel so inclined.

There are a few: Gresham House Asset Management Limited 22.61% , Aberforth Partners LLP 11.12% institutional above 10% there are 7 more in the 2-7% range and 10 Mutual Funds in the 1.8-p.6% range. All the institutional holders bar 1 have updated their holdings this calendar year so that may be where the SG are getting their shares?

Canchat you mention the other large shareholder. I am a bit bemused that I cannot find any reference to the large shareholders in the Investor section of Ricardo's website. I'm sure it must be there somewhere and I can't just see it. Every other company I am invested in shows the larger shareholders on their websites. Any one able to help?

PMDR - What a brave fellow is Mike Bell keeping 53% of his freebie £20,000 LTIP. No doubt he sold the 3,760 shares to pay the tax due? Maybe he wants to keep his job when and if the new regime arrives? SAG are not the only large shareholder so they will not be able to get more than 75% without paying a premium. Hang on for the fireworks - steve077 - 17 March (hope I am right). Well written mikey279 (14 March), asset value is important - my fingers are crossed.

CHAT.

Hi jellyroll,

RICARDO - as you say a great name. £10.75 to now £2.50. SP less than a quarter. The blame lies at the at the director's door. The sooner the BOARD departs the better. Still giving themselves LTIP bonuses, shame on them. BID no doubt due in the next half year. The Science Group would not be the only one interested?

CHAT

Less than 7 years ago the share price of Ricardo was £10.75. In last few weeks it has been as low as £2.17 and in the past year it has been as high as £5.30(but only for a few days). The only reason the price has increased in the the past week is because of Science group's interest. This complete erosion of value of the company over these years is down to this clearly incompetent board. If we don't like what Science group is doing then we can sell now. If it comes to vote I will certainly vote to get rid of this current board

On balance I am biased towards Ricardo as I like what they do but the RNS today re. the Chief Strategy and Digital Officer getting shares and immediately selling them does speak to Science Groups point of Directors not be invested in the company. If they believed in Ricardo would they not have skin in the game? Still think holding is the best option for now but strike 1 against current Directors for me.

Steve077, I would hang on for now if you can afford it. My guess is a takeover 24 months down the line, at about 370. We are following the TP Group pattern.

Jobs on the line

Anyone else feel like they are in the middle of a domestic argument ?

Do some research on their other takeovers offer price was at least 66% up on the share price of the company. Hold

Think they bought a decent amount of some willing institutional sellers hence why share price was going down while building stake before moving up.They keep stating there average is £2.31 sort of saying they don’t want to buy anymore above this price so I think they will wait till share price drops before buying more so I sold out today as I bought average £2.25.Good luck

As I have said on many previous occasions I have been appalled at the destruction of this once great company which carries the name of one of the UKs greatest engineers. I will vote for any proposal put forward by The Science Group.

Hi Threeputt

SAG will have no problem buying out RCDO. The management are excellent and will raise the cash with ease. They will, of course, do so over an extended period, but if they want it to happen, it will.

Funny thing is they have built a sizeable position and shareprice has barely moved!

Ah shame they've mentioned the similar tactics at TPX & FST (and one other) as I'd been hoping to accumulate as this hadn't gone unnoticed by me having been in TPX at the time of their previous skulduggery. There may be a derisory offer for the company as a next tactic which when rejected is used as a tactic to place their own people on the board, and as you say take the price down until they can put in a lower offer.

Next question, can Science Group afford an offer for Ricardo ?

Looks like a copy cat strategy from their TP takeover. BU a significant stockholding, if board not receptive to takeover get the other shareholders to force a meeting and vote out board for one more receptive of selling the company.

Looks like the market agrees too, gap to 350 initially

Yet they add to their holdings…..by 3x undervalue of gross assets looks a massive bargain

All IMO

The RNS states that "The substantial value destruction has resulted in an exodus of institutional shareholders despite share price levels being around their lowest levels in 15 years" but I can only see that Aberforth Partners LLP doubled their holding in February. I can't see any other iis reducing significantly.

Ouch!

Insanely Under Valued Share

And Someone is ACCUMULATING

PROPER chunky Buys All in A row, probably the same buyer.

Pleased I'm heavy on Ricardo

Another million shares bought today.

FWIW the takeover of TP Group was a VERY drawn out affair But the management there, who in my opinion are excellent, finally managed it and turned TP Group around. I bought in here today in a small way, and am preparing to play the waiting game.

Id like a bid from anyone to get out of this sh*tshow.

I misread the first year of the results as ' Acquisition of E3 Advisory and disposal of Ricardo Defense demonstrates clear execution against all common sense and current public opinion.'

Why the massive dividend drop? Why didn't the interim report justify that rather than just leave it to be a final comment?

Looks like they bought there last increase from Briarwood Chase Management LLC price paid not sure.