Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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Interesting MM trades this morning. Sells outweigh buys yet sp is up a tad (I know this does not the true picture but...). Somebody thinks this is a bit low I reckon...
Let's see...
I hate to say it but this is looking like it will be sold out of administraion, and starting to look like a McColls situation where the business raised case to enhance the business so it was more like to be purchased out of administration. in McColls case share holders money was used to rebrand into a higher revenue shop format and pay debt. the business got purchased of admin after the business used shareholder money to help make it happen. here debt has been used to buy Peach as a carrot to a failing estate which at this stage looks like it will fail and got scooped up for peanuts of of admin. if the Directors play their cards right them may even get to keep their jobs, but retail investors would very likely get wiped out in such a situation. hence the share price. time is ticking this the new minimum wage hits the P&L.
Maybe, maybe not...lets see what the budget brings (March 6th). It is general election year after all...
https://www.which.co.uk/news/article/spring-budget-2024-what-it-means-for-your-money-aRzMQ1q7C9uy
Huge cost increases comming so on the back of little to no profit.
Game over.
Where I live the Revolution de Cuba bar seems to be doing better than the Revolution bar.The All Bar One down the road has just closed.All a bit grim really.
Revolution do quite well in uni cities as they can usually be 'rented' free for birthdays etc mid week and in main cities if the location is good they are still prospering - the one in Manchester Deansgate is always popular, the one a mile or so away near St Anne's Sq less so ( i would shut the latter).
Clearly the BOD must have the figures for each so they will know the worst performers. Maybe a 50% reduction is required as long as they are not tied to long leases.
I would hate to sell Peach, but it is a bolt on that could be easily disposed and would get the best price. I note when this was purchased average weekly revs per pub were 'approaching' £30k. Now we are told that on their best weeks the 22 have exceeded £1m a week so c£45k a week each. Hopefully the average weekly rev has increased accordingly.
They need to see all the dead wood quickly before the ship sinks
Shandy, I like the option in your last paragraph to raise the sp in the short term but, imo, they should be look at offloading all Revolution bars to guarantee survival over any term. The 18-30's brigade are not going to get affluent anytime soon, probably not this decade anyway.
Very disappointing and blaming this on train strikes is poor.
Going forward the immediate action i would take is to review all Revolution bars and get rid of at least the bottom 20% that are underperforming.
It seemed a strange decision to refurb and expand this brand just after covid when it has struggled for years.
de Cuba seems to be performing a bit better and is aimed at a higher age group so it appears less drastic action is required here.
I don't think it will come to it, but the other option is consider maybe later in the year is to sell Peach Pubs. While this was only purchased just over a year ago it has traded well and will be an attractive option. This was bought for £16m and the whole company is currently valued at half this amount, so even if they just got their purchase price back it will clearly boost the SP and improve the balance sheet. As most of the pubs are in the South, maybe a London pub operate such as Youngs will be interested - they recently bought City Pub Group for a lot more
It won't be the only company trying to survive this year...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/22/more-than-47000-uk-businesses-on-brink-of-collapse-warn-insolvency-experts
I nearly bought a lot of stock pre Xmas but glad I didn’t-Peach seems to be a good purchase but the main brand must be under serious pressure
Good that investment has stopped to reduce debt. Huge increases in pay and in business rates.
this used to be 100p on the basis of a bid. These near doubled recently but have now halved again. If the bank pulls the loans then that is the end. I think that is likely myself this year. A lot of brands here that will be worth plenty but there will be nothing left for shareholders. Tough on the company with so many issues after Covid. I pulled back a few quid after it doubled but Xmas has now gone. Not going to punt again ....I see this on admin by the summer. Will keep what I have just in case they can hold on.
I expect even more of an overreaction today. These will be so cheap it will be a nobrainer but to buy... :-)
Are we nearing some sort of end, or will we ever get to see a ray of sunshine?
Mickey Mouse?
...MM needs shares...
What is the % split?
Interesting for this next year https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1851844/brexit-european-union-recession-pmis
When the 18-30's do get a bit of extra cash then...boom, well possibly not, they do seem to be a bit more cautious post covid...
Big Gun, Revolution which is by far the biggest brand is aimed at 18 to 30s. In 2022 they were refurbishing bars and opened 2 new ones (Preston and maybe Exeter off the top of my head) despite the concept clearly struggling. The de Cuba spin off is aimed at a slightly older crowd and seems to be doing a lot better.
RBG has specifically called out the increase in minimum wage as having an impact, however, surely this will impact it's 18 to 30 year old target group too.
Peach was only bought a year or so ago and is aimed at a higher socio economic group (mains are c £20 each etc) and is a stand out performer.
Some good size buying trades showing in the ticker today
I expect we will see a TR1 soon showing Eldose Babu continuing to add to his already significant holding, accumulating at this level.
Something positive happening in the background imo
Just getting rid of the chaff. Business model covers equally all demographics not just the young. Families have little spare cash but the over 50s do. It'll survive.
Agree though, not the best time to expand. Should've waited until the economy stabilised. 2025 maybe?
Hold or watch IMO.
Well if you by 2 shares youll get your 8p lol
The revolution brand seems to be the main issue and yet post covid loads of money was spent refurbishing these bars. Why?
These bars are meant to be focused on a younger crowd and students. Previously we were told these youngsters were less impacted by the cost of living as they don't have mortgages etc, now they are the most impacted according to RBG.
I have no issue shutting bars not making a profit - the Wilmslow one always looks dead, maybe it should have been done earlier.
Playhouse is a new concept so a bit concerning that is closing.
Peach is a great brand - the one in Bedford, the Embankment, is not cheap but is always quite busy and food is good. It also does B&B. However, buying this using the overdraft at a time of rising interest rates was madness.
CEO still gets his £400k basic despite all his poor calls though.
The worry is its treading water so 31st Dec 22 debt £18.5m and 4th Jan 23 £18.3m.
6th March debt was £23.1m and 15th Oct £ 23.2m. So seasonaly will go up.
On the plus side closures and lower utility costs should mitigate part of wage rises.
Held on too long - thought results would be better as Babu was involved. Holding for now
Makes good business sense. The board are serious about the future of this company. More than most on AIM...
Hope they can sell off the bars as going concerns so most of the staff can keep their jobs.