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Could be due a tick up in sp as she heads towards China.
Hoping for a major tick up on successful completion of Moroccan trials!!
I know it’s hard to judge but what kind of tick up we expecting from Morocco ?
Morocco uses 1500 t/d… so if we say for QFI 10 gbp/t… we have 5475000 GBP/y from it…. So the MCAp of 54750000 is possible with Morocco, or SP 0.039 GBP….
If we add QFI tax credit… and add 20 up for future…. Let say MCAP of 100mil or 0.071 is possible too just with Morocco.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/msc-we-are-willing-and-ready-to-further-adopt-alternative-fuels/
Maybe this was already posted. Another hint QFI maybe part of their bigger plan.
Great but what would the share price look like? I wasn’t good at maths sorry
Great find AKHM, if only Quadrise was mentioned - now that would have been lovely!
OHS
I have written two numbers 3.9-7,1 GBX for Morocco… for MSC we are fast upwards 1000GBX
Nejc, where did you get that figure that Morocco is 1500 tons a day - I was under the impression that it was less?
Dgdg1 I’m not sure, but I think it was once on this forum. What number do you have?
2-5kpbd states in the presentation. So 320-800m3, with density abbaut 1.05 t/m3…. So yes I was to high… but still is 10000-42000 GBP/day or min 3 000 000/y… what is from one customer enough for us :D …. Thanks for a push, that I check the sources :)
Yes, that's about our costs so completely derisks the business for a start.
Just to clarify, is it about our costs and would it completely derisk the business or have you forgotten to remove the production and material costs of the product to replicate that revenue
I used 10GBP per t for QFI for this numbers, one week ago it was mentioned that this number would be 50GBP… so I calculated with minimum numbers and this should stay for QFI as nett income…. We will see what will be, but this are my assumptions and predictions, you can make yours…. And I would be happy to see them…
And do not forget, we are not investing in a supplier of fuels. We are investing in a technology company what will sell not the product/fuel, but the licenses and max equipment. So the costs for QFI are the costs of running a company, but not additives, equipment…..
If my memory serves me well, I believe QFI have exclusive rights from Nouryon to supply the additives for all oil in water emulsion fuels. That gives us an additional avenue of control and income stream.
If we look for the royalty rates …„ According to Upcounsel, a nationwide legal services company, the industries with the highest average royalty rates are software (9.6%), energy and environment (8%), and health care equipment and products (6.4%). The industries with the lowest average royalty rates are automotive (3.3%), aerospace (4%), and chemicals (4.3%).“ …. Is it 10GBP or 50GBP of 300-400GBP/t? This is the question…. But it doesn’t matter, what matters, we have just with Morocco a stable business, what then can happen if MSC and others jump in, the SP I can not even calculate because it is a potential function :D
Has some one other a better assumptions? What do you think the potential is for Morocco, MSC, total Market, potential market Share, MCAP, SP?
My views on MCap following Morocco success and commercial supply are that it will be a lot higher than just the basic multiple of earnings.
On Morocco success we will have two commercially proven fuels, one of them a low carbon fuel, plus a commercial supply agreement, which is worth far more from an investment perspective than just the revenues, as it gives QFI a springboard to a lot more supply to other clients waiting in line, clients that will be given the test data from Morocco as soon as it is available.
Becoming a self sustaining company also brings in a lot more investment into the stock, as fear of dilution is removed.
I can easily see QFI being valued at £250m to £350m following Morocco supply agreement.
Look back at the MCap years ago when Maersk trial was starting and Saudi was getting closer to a trial. That is a big hint as to where investors would value the stock IMVHO. In 2013 QFI hit 50p per share, and at that time had 772.9m shares in issue, so was valued at £386.45m, with no commercial fuel and no revenues.
But it had you Haggis, ramping the a*se out of it, preaching your bill from your pulpit every day. Ah the good old days!
30x earnings.
There's P/E and Forward P/E.
What the market will do IMVHO is give QFI a P/E ratio that reflects the potential sales of fuel to others, such as MSC as their trials will be running this year, but other power users too. 30x is fine when you consider the potential ahead, and quite normal for a growing small cap.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/050115/what-difference-between-forward-pe-and-trailing-pe.asp
Haggus...When do you expect the MSC trial to start ?