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BH are the key, when they order massive volumes, the cost of production will drop dramatically. They say multiple of current total sales values, but substantial multiples of current volume for BH. That is the key to making it cheaper to produce and bringing to cost down, opening it up to more customers.
The DSM relationship was forecasting substantial multiples of current sales before the new gut health research. So there must be something big in the pipeline that never seems to happen. Perhaps BH volume production and cost reduction is required to unlock some of that? Just a thought.
Whilst reviewing the latest accounts prior to my recent analysis, I think that I came to the opinion that the recent change from the DSM Alliance Agreement to the new "In House" Production and Sales Model was the catalyst for unlocking the benefits for Fruitflow. I think that the statement regarding post Year end Sales and Orders amounting to £590K was pivotal.
When I went back over the years and did my original analysis, I found that the Cost of Sales for FF + o3 Tablets was on average 33% of the revenue generated by the sales of the Tablets. In other words we were making a 67% profit on those sales. I am assuming that the cost of Producing the raw material (FF SD II) would be less than that and therefore, the profit margins should be higher.
As I said in my analysis, I believe that we could possibly be trading profitably under the new arrangement if you discount the costs of DSM Royalties and R&D.
Having said that, I believe that SAMR approval will take us into a much higher division.
a) It will open up a completely new market for FF and to use a well worn message this new market could be at significant multiples of existing levels, AND
b) I believe that SAMR approval will also make a significant difference to the value of the original IP..
As Gixer says, the development of the Gut Health research by DSM could also bring the same results.
For the first time in ages, I am feeling very much more confident of our short term prospects - to put my money where my mouth is, one of those buys on Friday was mine.
Slam
"do Bi- health hood the key to unlocking the benefits of fruitflow?"
By-Health may well hold the key in as much as if/when they make a success of Fruitflow then it might open the door for other significant companies looking to follow suit. However its not the only rout to a major, remember we are told that "There has been some encouraging interest in this technology from some significant global customers." wrt DSM and Gut health and not forgetting the "strong and growing interest" in general.
Aren't you being a bit obvious.
I hope not, I hope you are not playing games with this share again. You know, find a share that has been illiquid for a while, then do a few buys and try to get speculation going?
Or am I just paranoid because it's happened a few times already.
I’m intent on buying another 5 10k worth Monday and see what happens. Fingers crossed 🤞
Morning, it’s nice to see other people here posting, I bought a couple of million of these 15 years ago, less than 1p they show up to 15p and stupidly into the signing I bought more and then it up on a big paper loss!, Anyway point is, where is this going now always had faith that this was a good product just needed to be marketed in the right way, thank you for posting the snippets do Bi- health hood the key to unlocking the benefits of fruitflow?
Any other lth here? Good luck to everyone
Https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1787305902463429289&wfr=spider&for=pc
translated
https://baijiahao-baidu-com.translate.goog/s?id=1787305902463429289&wfr=spider&for=pc&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
https://baijiahao-baidu-com.translate.goog/s?id=1786684529075718483&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
and the video
https://mbd.baidu.com/newspage/data/videolanding?nid=sv_2015531825347392823&sourceFrom=share
Https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=PXS.GB.PL&share=Provexis-Plc
I bought another £5k’s worth today at 2-55pm through HL. Hasn’t shown up on here. Very optimistic for the future.
Nice end to the week,even if it was on only 4 buy trades adding to 2.2 million.
Someone know something?…..
Nice bit of upward movement on just a couple of decent trades.
Hope it's got something significant behind it this time.
At around 14% the possibility of these tariffs could add up to a fair chunk of change that either we or European customers would need to stump up.
Hardly seems worth it ! setting it up for a couple of hundred k from Europe as it stands !
I'd thought the Ireland office was to make it easier to continue to supply existing customers in the EU.
Of course, new customers also welcome.
Hi Slam01,
Many thanks for your well though post. Hope we will be in profit very soon.
Good analysis slam , I also looked through the results and thought the payment must be in cost of sales , it has to be there somewhere or the bod would be in breach of aim rules I believe . Anyway as you say that will reduce this year and I have a feeling sales are ramping up , I wonder if the Ireland office is in response to inquires from a global player in the gut health sector ! Just a thought
Anyone have any idea when this is due
I have not yet received an answer from IF regarding the royalty payments made to DSM, but I have done a lot more analysis of the current set of results and those from the previous 6 half yearly reporting periods. I think that my analysis is leading me to believe that we might already be trading profitably if you strip out the R&D Costs and the DSM Royalties from the Accounts:
My initial thoughts regarding these two elements are:
R&D Costs: I have always thought that Provexis was a Company with two distinct arms to it. The first arm is as a trading company which looks to manufacture and sell the Fruitflow product - more of that later. However the second arm is as the "guardian" of the IP and the Patents that support the IP. The R&D costs contained within the Accounts merely represent the cost of this guardianship and should not be considered as part of the normal trading.
In my opinion the IP and Patents have an inherent value of their own. It is difficult to put an absolute value to this but I would argue that the IP has to be worth £50M at least, especially when you consider the money that the Chinese are investing to further advance the understanding of the original IP. I suspect that the achievement of SAMR approval will significantly enhance this valuation.
DSM Royalty Payments: My analysis suggests that the Royalty Payments are indeed contained within the Current Accounts within the "Cost of Sales". I think that these payments lie in the range of 40%-50% depending on whether you apply this to gross sales to ex-DSM clients or whether you apply it the same sales but Net of production costs. In either event, my models estimate the Royalty Payment to be approx £145,000 in the latest period. We know that these Royalty payments are time limited and will reduce to zero over the next 3?? years. If we are doing an analysis of the Current Trading II would argue that we need to consider the Company position excluding this particular element of cost.
If you strip out both elements we discount £140,000 R&D Costs and we discount £145,000 as an estimate of the DSM Royalties, then I would argue that we are currently trading profitably as both of these are included in the last reported loss of £267,106.
My models make a few obvious assumptions but I don;t think that I am far out on these and I am happy to share the analysis if anyone in interested.
I am also really buoyed by the reported sales and order numbers post the year end as they are showing highly significant increases in volume. This will only increase further when the SAMR decision kicks in.
But in the words of the immortal Gixer - WTFDIK
Personal abuse from the nutter who bought at the peak, and sold at the lows.
Silly old man?
Pot, kettle ?
LOL. This crock has been trundling on since 2009 and still can't make a profit. Alf has become a silly old man in the interim! Many investors will have shuffled off the mortal coil before it turns a profit!
I hope so, 9 months is such a long wait.
I expect we'll get an update before September because they'll need to rectify the financial position before then - be it equity raise, debt finance or other
Kinda makes you realise why DSM are keen to develop the gut health patents doesn't it.
Fruitflow would be a REAL health claim, rather than a couple of Vits added to a yucky shot.
Actimel makes about €700 m for Danone each year , would be nice if they are the global looking at ff, wishful thinking I know but who else are in this market ! I believe some us companies are bigger, but would they be interested !