The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Anything about the fact Riverfort can convert in 9 days?
Donald says that they are testing the mining gear that they had agreed to purchase.
They had to have proof of funds before being allowed to test hence the fund raise.
ATB Ducks.
Any nuggets of info being released on the Telegram group or is it as depressing as this board !!..
All the same our BOD owning over 5m shares worth say £600k is still down £3m to £4m....for them too and nobody likes a paper loss of that magnitude......so I expect they will be trying as hard as they can!!!
BBB, I also thought the same re the earlier dates. This time it's for real (not investment advice!). Best of luck with your future investments. If the news comes good, there will be ample time to buy some back. 🤞
ITD, I'd like to think 25th Feb isn't random, but then I thought that about 8th December and 2nd Jan too. I agree about the possibility of 'moving parts', but for me the risk/reward balance is no longer attractive so I'm out, having held for nearly 6 years. LTHs should take heart; I usually time these things badly!
Personally the purchases you talk about were IMO both a positive and negative.
You're right about Martin Hughes Cromwell, that was for me the positive from the fund raise and indicator that hopefully positive news is just around the corner.
The director purchases were miniscule in comparison and I certainly gained no confidence from them that this project is on track Currently.
Marcus Edwards-Jones Executive Chairman 1,361,464 0.9%
Ryan McDermott Chief Executive Officer 606,429 0.4%
Richard Wilkins Chief Financial Officer 994,925 0.7%
Andre Cohen Non-Executive Director 642,452 0.4%
Harry Kenyon-Slaney Advisory board member 167,857 0.1 %
Dennis Thomas Advisory board member 1,483,303 1.0%
Martin Hughes 16,224,943 10.9%
Plenty of confidence for me with management adding recently and having decent holdings. But for me the stand out is Martin Hughes for me, aka the "Rottweiller" of Toscafund especially giving me confidence to follow the money.
Last buy from me 30,000 this morning @ 11.05p. DYOR.
I do agree ITD/Stanley. You have to believe its all in hand and shareholders aren't just being played for fools. Its clearly a complex process and things are in play we don't yet know about. Its just frustrating not knowing and a SP of 11p FFS. The commodity bull run is about to kick in with China making some positive moves in their financial markets. When the SP is back at 80p/sh we can relax a bit...lol
Plan ABC, plan CBA, plan ACB, plan BAC, plan BCA, plan CAB. That is a lot of plans. Hopefully, one day, one of the plans works. I'm having a jolly old time not reading anything anyone posts any more, including BoD. Why bother when 100% of the info about timelines is wrong? All you can do is sit and wonder how many more braincells you're going to lose to old age until something happens.
The 25th of February was presumably not randomly chosen. Perhaps there are lots of moving parts we can't see. Time will give us the answer. Best hope I'm right OR you should sell now. RF resolves favourably (& equipment purchase announced) and a slow drip going nowhere may be a surge up, high enough for traders to take great advantage of. Not speculating anymore on this topic. Something significant should happen before the 25th.
I don't know. I can assume based on the facts presented.
They have been in negotiations for at least a month. If we are as friendly with the lender as the board says we are then you would expect negotiations to be fairly straight forward.
If they were straight forward they could have completed the extension before the fundraise, which I believe would have increased the shareprice and any placing could have been done at a higher level.
The board also has a history of continually missing target dates on multiple issues. So you can understand my skepticism that the Riverfort loan will get extending before they reach the conversion timeframe.
"The board are sticking to their words and trying to do something different: get the mine into production without diluting the early stage holders to next to nothing. That has always been and remains the goal. I repeat: it is not easy. At any point we could throw the towel in, issue a few hundred million shares or make the bonds convertible. But we are taking the more difficult path that offers much greater rewards to early stage investors."
I accept the Short term delay for longer term gain - share in issue is minuscule compared to peers in sector at this eary stage of development - its not easy as maintained - but Phoenix know its viable to gain the Bond finance, or they would not have bothered and continued to persevere.
Stating that there has been a delay in renegotiation, as if it is a fact, is disingenuous: that's just your opinion. If we don't have a resolution of RF before 25th Feb, that would then be a delay. You have no idea about what stage the renegotiating is at. My opinion: it's nearly done. I'm expecting RF renegotiation and equipment purchases before Feb 25th. I, like you, need to wait and see. Presumably those that took part in the placing were aware of the state of RF and that equipment will be bought.
I'm not sure Riverfort will convert, however the nearer it comes to the 25th of February without a new agreement the higher the likelihood they will imo.
It's all very well the board saying they've got a great relationship and they won't convert. If they've got such a great relationship why the delay in negotiating a new facility?
I'd be very concerned if we get to the 25th of February without a new deal or other financing secured.
I get what you’re saying, Boon (it’s been said a few times now!). I would agree that so far timelines have been late / wrong, but the overall plan is still in play.
Don’t get me wrong, the wait is highly frustrating and I’m disappointed with how the PXC team have handled things, but this will happen, and it will happen with bonds and without conversion.
My conviction is based on research, that’s all I’ll say.
I don’t have any personal relationships with the board (although I have spoken to them on the phone occasionally), I’ve not attended any lunches, I don’t have any insider info.
You believe Riverfort will convert, I believe they won’t.
I hope that once the loan is rearranged that we can move on and focus on a few more positives in the project.
If your conviction is what the board and other associates are saying just remember how many times they've been wrong in the last few years.
What's the basis beh your conviction?
If the price is low enough, and it looks like it could go to single digits, then Riverfort will convert imo.
I’m pretty sure the company is aware of that, Boonboon!
Conversion won’t happen, and the loan will likely be extended, increased, and on new (better) terms.
It will have to be the next few weeks. They can convert in less than 3 weeks and if the price is low enough I expect they will.
Conversely, with news this will go higher and higher.
From an investor relationship perspective I agree it’s not been handled well, but if they really do manage to navigate this stage of development with an ongoing friendly relationship with Riverfort (as is repeatedly stated), less than 180m shares in issue, funded development through the bonds and a clear path to revenue, then I think we will all come out of this in profit.
Riverfort is the obvious fear right now. But if that matter is put to bed over the next few weeks then I’m hoping to see a shift in sentiment. News of purchased equipment should also settle a few nerves.
I remain convinced that the bond will complete.
If no news this will just go lower and lower as we approach March and no Riverfort decision or Bond financing. This has been handled horrendously by management. Terrible way to treat shareholders. But this is AIM, so not entirely unexpected, although PXC always led us to believe they were different. More fool us!!
They said 80m of a potential 300m not me. If it comes under it will likely affect the 300 not necessarily the 80. Or the 80 could be 10! Who knows. But it’s all the bond holders fault for not signing over the cheque even though now you say they don’t know how much it’s for.
Still we will find out by march…
“ The Directors remain confident that the Bond Financing will be closed and that the Facility will be rolled into a new and larger facility. At this stage, however, there can be no certainty that the Company will receive the Bond Financing or that the Facility will be rolled into a new facility.
In the event that the Bond Financing does not complete and a new facility is not put in place before 23 March 2024, the Company will be required to seek alternative sources of funding to fund the future working capital and capex requirements of the Company, and to repay the Facility. ”
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, after the raise to say "Now it’s an initial $80m." is completely wrong.
We don't yet have the numbers for improved profitability or capex reduction but that statement is incorrect.
I understand what DP is saying and I agree with the rational for raising capital to grab the kit.
My question remains is how do they make the new increased Riverfort payment (4%+ xtra) when the loan extension increases and pay the bi annual coupon on the $80m bonds at 8.5% -20%.
Revs for the last period were $310k positive but a run rate loss of $0.63m
Taking an optimistic 10% apr on the $80m means $4m in cash for the first coupon.
The debt terms of this nature often require cash for the next coupon on account. Another $4m. Thats to protect tier one lenders. Any breach of terms could result in a call on the bonds which would equal handing over the mine as they have no cash leaving shareholders with zilch!
I asked the Bod to outline the principles of payment even if they can’t give the details. Not had a reply and yet they have replied in the past.
A gradual bond draw down will help but once money finds another home it’s often not as easy as just moving it on a whim.
Using Riverfort to raise additional working capital may have prohibitions for using the money as debt payments. Like paying one credit card off with another… it’s not normally permitted.
Likewise you can’t get a mortgage to pay your mortgage, so why would bond holders want you to use their cash, which is for development of metals, to pay them back their own money.
Options are possible but we aren’t told.
That potentially leaves an asset sale to fund the deposits. Konnex the subsidiary that owns the mine will be used to underwrite the bonds, so that’s not realistically an option.
They have assets in KPX whether that is saleable I don’t know. The asset structure overlaps to offer layers of regulatory protection which is the norm.
The landscape now is completely different to what it was in May 21 when they announced..
“ our economic model … increases the NPV to $419 million. This is at the Empire starter pit alone. The $50 million capital required for construction would be repaid in less than one year in such a scenario, and we are already in discussions with several project finance funders with a view to providing this, with no further recourse to the equity markets.
Now it’s an initial $80m.
So many unanswered questions and not a track record of trust now. But if DP says they have the kit and all must be well he must be right again!
Usual caveats, from the sidelines.
GL
Trek