Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I agree it's important to remember what happened. PVR drilled BROE with a really old and ill-maintained rig. While it drilled to the required depth (and hit oil again) - the rig then broke down before a lateral flow test could be done. A lateral flow test was needed to demonstrate whether there was compartmentalization or not. If there was significant compartmentalization then the field might never be commercially viable and compartmentalization was a major feature in the seven heads field that sits above BROE. PVR ****ed away millions taking a case they could not win against the firm that supplied the ****ty-rig. The upshot of the failure to do a lateral flow test is that the concern regarding compartmentalization never went away and basically, no-one would fund BROE's development. There has been a huge amount of BS about how technology improvements now allow mapping of the field and can allay fears over compartmentalization but that's not true. PVR also know that the field has big risks that need to be addressed - hence the need to do more appraisal drilling. And yes - they had the money to do this before and chose not to. They clearly weighted up the risk/reward and went for other projects. BROE has significant risks and is not the certainty presented here.
“..they had money which they spent on everything except BROE, why?”
Despite what the implication is of this ‘sinister’ fact, it is just typical press putting their spin on what seems on the face of it to be a problem. The real problem however is with the coverage by social media hacks posing as journalists. It was always the case that pvr acquired many licences and set about proving them up. It was always stated several times by O’Reilly himself, that they had no intention of becoming a production company. The idea was to prove up assets, then either offload part or all of the company upon successful discovery and appraisal. It was only after the eye watering cost of holding all the accumulated licences, and the dry holes, that they changed tack and offloaded all prospects except those with proven resources. Barryroe and Helvick. Then decided to take a new approach with a phased appraisal and concurrent development program. Best to keep things in the correct perspective and to remember what has gone before.
PVR want a permit so they can conduct an appraisal programme. The purpose of the appraisal programme is to demonstrate that the field is viable. I always thought this was done years ago but apparently not. The cost of the appraisal programme is €65m which they don't have but they think they could raise the funds with the permit. Goodman has invested about £4m in the company to date. He'd have to invest double that and hope all other shareholders take a punt with him to meet that €65m.
If the appraisal programme goes well, then PVR would farm out BROE to an oil development company and have the field developed to start production. Earliest estimate of starting production is late 2026 (assuming nothing is challenged in the courts and no faults show up in the field). The field has always been presented as mostly oil but some gas (they don't really know but it could be a lot of gas, the appraisal programme should determine this I guess). Let me know if there is a mistake in this summary.
In my opinion, I see everyone talking themselves into a frenzy about why Ryan must do this and must do that. I'd say it's not obvious. For a start he's a complete clown but putting that to one side, PVR does not have much credibility - look at the last three farm outs, everyone waiting for a monday morning RNS -at one point it was just a few hundred thousands. At another point in time, they had money which they spent on everything except BROE, why? Even if everything goes gangbusters there will be no production for 4 to 5 years. Will there still be a problem then? Maybe, maybe it will be worse or maybe there will be no problem and oil at $30 a barrel. I'd say Ryan will mull this for a year or two yet.....
EU press conference at 12.15pm (CET) ref "Save Gas for a Safe Winter", this should be enlightening listening,...GL S
https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/1
Some headlines,..
15% reduction confirmation (Voluntary) and applicable to all EU members
Reduction period - August 1st through to March 31st 2023
Target saving 45bcm
EU state plans for Gas sharing and EU gas supply measures to be accelerated - Ryan could be the toast of the EU if he progresses Barryroe!
Priority on extending non Russian gas supplies - Another that Barryroe could support!
Plus EU alert process to be introduced, that will result in EU wide mandatory demand cuts being implemented.
Current EU storage is circa 65% - Target of 85% by end of November in doubt.
Concerns also extended to Winter 2023 and 2024
Full press release - I am sure the Barryroe partners will be waving this in front of Ryan's nose!
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_4608
Gas may test EU solidarity like nothing beforeRyan seems content to have Ireland import gas needed to generate power rather than put himself in a political awkward position by allowing Irish resources to be tapped The commitment in the Programme for Government two years ago to set the State on the path to having 70 per cent of its electricity generated from renewable sources is a noble one and worth fighting for. But even Minister for the Environment Eamon Ryan was forced to concede late last year that in order to keep the lights on, with demand for energy only rising, several new gas-fired power plants needed to be built over the next decade.
That, however, is where the intellectual honesty stops. Because Ryan seems content to continue to have Ireland import most of the gas needed to generate the power rather than put himself in a political awkward position with the Green Party’s base by allowing Irish resources to be tapped.
The banning of new exploration licences last year is one thing. But it is increasingly clear the Minister does not want to be seen to allow existing licences to run their course.
Take Europa Oil & Gas’s exploration licence for an area close to the Corrib field (which currently supplies about 30 per cent of Ireland’s gas needs), which will lapse at the end of the month if Ryan does not grant an extension.
Europa’s chairman Brian O’Cathain, who ran the Irish operations of Enterprise Oil when it discovered the Corrib field in 1996, puts the odds of another such field being found as “one in three or four”.
“It’s not a slam dunk, but it’s a reasonable chance,” he says. He reckons the so-called Inishkea field could be operational, if resources were proven, within four to five years.
It goes without saying that the decarbonisation of the economy cannot occur quickly enough, but we’ll be in a transition period for years. And unpalatable decisions need to be made.
Corrib gas, according to Europa, is one of the lowest carbon gases in Europe, much lower than long distance pipeline gas from Norway and the UK that is piped into this island through three interconnectors that run from Moffat in Scotland (which raises its own security-of-supply risks).
Similarly, there has been almost radio silence from Ryan’s department on an application Providence Resources submitted in April last year for a key permit to further appraise its Barryroe oil and gas prospect off the Cork coast.
With officials and leaders across Europe growing increasingly anxious about the threat of civil unrest if Russian gas is turned off completely or gas prices soar to unaffordable levels, EU solidarity may be tested like never before. Ireland is in the deeply unpleasant position of being at the end of the pipeline.
Menton will not sue before Wednesday, 23rd August 2022 unless the Rockhopper decision is made before that. The Rockhopper decision can be extended by a further 60 days but 23rd August is 120 days from the judgement was made and if 60 days extension is invoked, I am sure Rockhopper will be informed well before 23rd of August.
Rockhopper are suing the Italian government for $340m based on lost profits and revenue having spent $34m. On that basis, Providence could sue the Irish government for $2billion having spent $200m which they can legally reclaim out of profits if and when Barryroe is allowed to be developed.
Corrib proves this as they have not yet paid a cent to the Irish Government in tax as they are still recouping development costs spent in bringing the field into production.
So Menton can kill two birds with one stone by threatening the government on , no permission to develop Barryroe and lost profits from potential revenue.
I am sure Larry Goodman is well aware of this and is hanging in here for big profits.
On the other hand, how would it look if Ryan played hardball on lots of sectoral targets and then granted the lease on Barryroe? There would be even more uproar. That's why there's no possibility he is going to sign it off. He needs to be either pushed out or sued for Barryroe to have a chance.
The existing government guidance for oil exploration (from some years back) says the government has a very supportive stance. Existing legislation allows current licenses to be progressed. Ryan cannot square that circle. He has forgotten the "supportive" part. His tactic is to bury his head in the sand. He has also strongly suggested (e.g. to the Seanad) that no oil discoveries even EXIST. Hopefully Menton is getting ready to sue, but even at that it's a long shot.
Interesting to hear Ryan saying that we should not be guilt tripping his colleague Catherine Murphy for flying business class to Dubai .Imean, isn't that what the Greens do to the rest of us?
So now he is looking for legally binding targets for each industrial section in the country and have them by the end of the month.I cannot see FFG agreeing to these as it would cause a ground swell of political alienation for both these parties.I would even go so far as to predict the Greens will exit or be pushed from Government over these demands.
Have a read and then view the comments in this article:
https://www.thejournal.ie/sectoral-emissions-limits-5819396-Jul2022/
The Phoenix (15th July) decidedly luke-warm on the appointment of Alan Curran as Interim Chief Executive. Drawing attention to the liquidation of Curran's own venture, Ortus Petroleum. Ortus (latin for 'Rising' incidentally, but I do not know if that is the background to the name) did not raise investment funds as hoped. The Phoenix may not be completely impartial about this since a few months ago they promoted the notion that Steve Boldy, the Lansdowne Oil and Gas Chief should be the next Chief Executive of Providence. At the time I assumed The Phoenix must be on to something. In any event, the major shareholders showed their support for the Board with the recent fundraising.
Well, if Providence find themselves have to progress litigation at any stage in the future, that will certainly be very helpful circumstantial evidence!, …GL S
Thanks for posting link, dated Sun, 07 Oct, 2007 ( https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30331071.html ), Battle.
BW
Thanks Battle & Kevin,
The "Business Class, because some pigs are more equal than others", "Multi-Millionaire" Eamonn Ryan was just interviewed on the "This Week" RTE radio program, all talk about agriculture, herd count, anaerobic digesters, etc & not a mention of Barryroe. He easily outdone the presenter, but complete softball stuff from RTE.
Funny again, to see him flogging Irish Offshore Exploration only 15 yrs ago but he seems to be sticking to his guns today on Barryroe.
And nobody has mentioned, that if he ever did OK Barryroe, he would be immediately voted out of leadership by his own Green party members, loose his super important ministerial post & his nemesis "Business Class" Catherine Martin would take over.
But if he delays & obfuscates & the government collapses while not OK'ing Barryroe & that forces an election, he will be right back into the same post with a coalition with SF & assorted loonies.
Total Opposition politics is big business & very profitable.
The fascist Jean Marie Le Pen here in France is worth up to €270 M, more than next Tuesdays EuroMillion :-)
PS - David Horgan, Petrel Chairman & CEO just made "car crash" ****** comments on "Brendan O'Connor" radio show & instead of backing down when wisely advised, he doubled or quadrupled down, with even worse ****** analogies.
So lucky, we didn't get him, as new CEO.
FeelsLikeKevin posted this article on Twitter. Timing is everything.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30331071.html
Hopefully this will help focus the public's attention
https://www.businesspost.ie/news/exclusive-europe-to-tell-member-states-to-cut-gas-use-as-energy-crisis-looms/
Really depends what the big holders want
to do.Biden seemingly left Saudi without a cheap oil deal so demand could remain desperate for some time.LG might want to just sell it on.The tax write off alone of $200 Million works out at 16 cent a share!
Eamon Ryan will eventually sign it off because he knows what s coming if he doesn't and there is not much he can do about it apart delaying the inevitable ; the law is not on his side. https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/25/outrage-as-italy-faces-multimillion-pound-damages-to-uk-oil-firm (old article but very relevant and informative)
Menton said "within 90 days" back in April. He was quoted in the Business Post of April 24th, and 90 days since then is up next week. However, it would be silly to see that as a deadline as I don't see how Menton or anyone else can possibly know. Nor did he tell us how he can possibly know. So I'm inclined to treat it as blowing smoke up our a$$es. The only intriguing fact is that he picked this month to appoint an interim CEO, having decided it was not worth paying one for the past ten months. That, along with the fundraise, might be viewed as part of a demonstration that PVR is a going concern before the LU can be granted. But while it might be a necessary prerequisite we have nothing so far to suggest that it is a *sufficient* one. It's quite possible the LU will *never* be granted.
Any view WHEN the LU is given??
The smaller parties in coalition Government are usually the ones to suffer in a following election.However Ryan has maximised the Greens in this Government that it is now more likely that FFG will be the ones to suffer to Sinn Fein and independent TDs.Both FFG must be hearing this on the ground .
Looks like Willie O'Dea, liked the post, saw the light & is starting to do something about it :-)
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-rebel-tds-demand-review-of-coalition-agreement-in-new-blow-to-micheal-martin-41844159.html
Currently there is less than 1.5% electricity being generated by renewables.
Times change...
A few months ago you were a mighty, green warrior and champion of the environment. Few people questioned your zealous stance. In the comfort of your ministerial office, you could confidently reassure like minded greenies with a nudge, a wink and a 'not on my watch!' Barryroe was dead and buried and the average Irish citizen was unaware of your starring role in his spiking energy bills. Hell, some people even believed your 'hydrogen' fantasies. You were able to put principles before economic realities with complete impunity.
Well that's not true anymore. Now the eyes of a nation are upon you. Your reputation (as a statesman not as a mindless, green ideologue) is at stake. Don't you wish to be remembered as a politician who put the needs of his people first?
Make no mistake, this is no time to have feet of clay. Your shameless stonewalling is dereliction of duty! Real people are paying for your policy paralysis.
Times change and you need to change with them.
Let's face it, even if Ryan is told to get off his high horse it will be to permit the Shannon LNG terminal. It would take the same amount of time to build as Barryroe would take to get to production, but gas is probably a higher priority as oil can already be shipped in by tanker. Of course, if we had any strategic sense we'd develop not only Barryroe but the adjacent OPL/1 license area which potentially holds lots of gas. But it's not going to happen.
Shell chief warns Europe may have to ration energy during winter
Head of oil major says prices will rise ‘significantly’ if Russia continues to limit supply
https://www.ft.com/content/fb57864b-5d1c-450a-bf8d-a4a0807a38c9
BW
The Greens are unfit for government and coupled with that Minister Ryan is in breach of officeholders legislation by putting party politics before the nation.
The expected action by the commission coupled with the recent taxonomy will force this government’s hand.
We need to survive the now